Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

Don't get to carried away with legal challenges. They are extremely unlikely to succeed.

House prices are a function of demand. People need to live somewhere. I agree if all else remained the same, you may get a dip in house prices. But as I'm trying to repeatedly point out - everything is connected. And connected to a degree that wasn't imagined - or possible - a generation ago.

Henry Ford once said that his customers wanted faster horses, which I've always liked and used when giving talks to highlight how things don't happen in a vacuum. Although I think times change faster than people. (Last time I used that line was giving a demonstration of blockchain ...)

"that was then, this is now ..."

is very appropriate for what happens after No Deal

It will be Year Zero.
No country has been stupid enough before to do this, leave their regional trade bloc and all their other trade treaties, many agencies etc

Predictions vary from being no worse than the 2008 global financial crisis, to - if ND continues for a couple of years -
the UK spiralling down out of the wealthy country category, like Argentina did after stupid decisions in the 1920s & 1930s

Too much depends on how long the govt remains stubborn / when the govt is replaced / ....

"House prices are a function of demand."

and ability to pay
which depends on whether people have the same income and on how much other essentials like food increase in price

The govt won't care if homeless numbers spike

Katya Adler and Adam Fleming (to give the BBC its due) have repeatedly said that the EU won't sacrifice the Single Market for the sake of the UK's desired Brexit, because the Single Market is more valuable to the EU economy than the (undoubted) damage of a No Deal Brexit.

It's just that many in the UK refuse to believe it.

We'll have to see about house prices. I'll just say that in August 2020, I won't be seeing pictures of happy Leavers waving their house keys in a grotesque PPI parody ad saying "Thanks to Brexit we bought our dream house, after years of renting.", which is pretty much what some Leavers seem to think will happen.

Hazard 💐

If you can't get his meds, then I'd suggest a ferry to either Ireland (language) or wherever you have EU connections

You'd first need to phone around chemists there, to see if they would accept a UK prescription,
or if not, phone doctors surgeries to see if any would write out a valid prescription for a temporary private patient

Likely to involve a few days stay
And expense

What a pita

After No Deal, I expect far more losers than winners
It's just a question of degree

Hazard

My first thought was to google things along the lines of "EU citizens helping UK" hoping some kind people had already organised something...but I guess Brexit hasn't officially happened yet so people in the EU don't know about all the things already going wrong.

My second crazy thought was could you go live in Gibralter and then your benefits would stay the same (I think) and you could go to Spain for prescriptions.

Yes of course - NI/Ireland is 100x more sensible than Gibralter

iirc, Gibraltar has strict income limits for would-be residents
and accommodation isn't cheap either

With a population of only 40-45,000 they probably can't accept people who would require subsidising

Yup bigchoc it's the travelling there and back which is pita. And expense. We would have to do it somewhat regularly.

camomila yes I have thought about Gibraltar... live in Gibraltar and then pop over into Spain for dr and meds and food. A hard border in NI will cause issues and DP very worried about that - it's one of the main reasons he voted remain. Gibraltar house prices and rent similar to London.

Does anyone know what happened to that ridiculous 'I fancy Boris, me' thread??

PMK

I come from a background of genuine deprivation
(financially and emotionally, abuse / in 'care' etc)
my first job was temping for Robert Maxwell.
I left after I saw him screaming at his PA one day - he terrified me.
I then temped for a BoJo type and after his accountant a JRM type. (One OE/ one OW). Out of the frying pan, into the fire: all Crooks!
It was impossible to maintain any objectivity, aged 20, faced with this.
I simply thought that all powerful people were men, and all were like this. I wanted to feel less insecure / have more stability /assumed that meant money / this was the type who had it - I looked up to them I got deeply involved with the JRM one before I found out he was involved too, and ended up having therapy to cope with it all.
As part of that I wrote a book, but did not have the nerve to publish it.
(who was I, ill educated as i am to write about my betters? etc)

30 years on JRM and I met again. He took me on a 'Lunch Date' at his old School (of course!). We compared notes about our backgrounds / lives. His was also deprived in a way I could not understand at the time meaning that all the opportunities and silver spoons he was given have been wasted on (by?) him). He is now slightly pathetic, more patronising than ever, yet i still 'react' to him, even though i understand it now.

The reason I mention all this is thus:
Deprivation / uncertainty can make people turn to 'authority figures'
Certain chunks of society who have been deprived of opportunities for perhaps a generation or 2, had the chance to make their voices heard by 'sticking it' to those in power (the big bad EU, according to the Govt). Yet, almost incomprehensibly, they may also now vote for the BoJo types as they turn to them in times of uncertainty too. He might win, if he calls an election which is horrifying to many of us.

A neglected/beaten dog may snarl /cower yet still follow its master.
The Psychology is interesting and shamelessly manipulated by BoJo and Cummings types.

Have you been to Gibraltar? there is no 'popping' anywhere... it's a giant traffic jam which is set to get worse.

Hazard

Piggy hope my post doesnt sound too ridiculous / pathetic?
The thread has moved on a bit, (dithered for ages drafting it)
Ah, well it's done now. like we've all been done up like kippers by BoJo

I thought that with JIT and confusion over what paperwork will be needed that there will inevitably be food shortages and quite fast, within 3 days or so of No Deal. Is that not now the case? Why?

Why would it sound ridiculous? It was very interesting!

Adam Bienkov@AdamBienkov

Boris Johnson told Sky News last week that it’s “highly unlikely” there will be food shortages after a no-deal Brexit.

Privately ministers have warned the food industry that they will run out of basic ingredients within days.

"within days" wtf is going on ?

Are these just invented rumours - e.g. Cummings lowering expectations

• or was Yellowhammer cocked up / just too little, too late

So long as UK goods exports are restricted and not allowed into / near Dover without the proper papers,
then imports of essentials should be OK

If this warning is just Yellowhammer modelling about initial "teething" problems, then if need be stop all UK goods lorries until reliable system are in place
Send empty lorries to collect essential imports like food & meds

I'm even wondering if the govt is trying to keep JIT manufacturing going, to avoid businesses leaving
JIT requires a lot of goods traffic, including imports of components & raw materials, as well as exports

That would be a dreadful decision, profit above people
if the ports get jammed, then immediately stop all exports until they are sorted

Yes, balance of payments crisis would happen sooner, but that could take years to affect imports
and feeding people should take priority

Hazard

Big Choc thanks for that info re Ireland, may have to use it for exh's antipsychotics

room That's an interesting post, not pathetic at all

It is true that some of those whose families a generation or two back have suffered the worst under the hard right,
do roll over to have their belly tickled and will aggressively defend their masters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany/no-deal-brexit-will-happen-on-oct-31-if-there-is-no-backstop-agreement-maas-idUSKCN1VK12U

Germany expects Britain to crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Friday.

“We cannot imagine reopening the Withdrawal Agreement,”
Maas said in the Finnish capital.

“We assume that Brexit will happen on Oct. 31.

We will do everything to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

But the British government has made it clear that if there is no agreement (on the Irish border) a no-deal Brexit will happen.”

.

colouring if it's any consolation I think if he doesn't encounter shortages in the next few weeks then it's likely to be catered for and it'll be the expected hurdles of importing instead of total shut down on the medication.

Atm we're finding out what they've decided is essential. DP's med is a preventative to avoid life saving intervention and it's solely made in the EU.. so not a popular one it seems.