Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

@Temporary I think you may have missed the actual hatred spouted on community FB boards from villagers at parents who have to park to drop off and pick up kids in these schools . I'm under no illusions many of them voted Leave and will be the first to deadlock their doors if there is a hint of food shortages (they aren't like many on this thread who volunteer with food banks, preferring to spend their time photographing car reg's and "naming and shaming" poor parking on SM)

Estimates are that the country is 60 billion quid poorer than it would be if the ref hadn't happened, BUT almost no Leaver will believe that, or any significant figure, because most people don't feel poorer

I bet those that are already falling victim to UC sanctions, social care cuts, difficulties with the NHS, experiencing shortages in education, council tax cuts, or who have lost their job because their company lost contracts or has re-located to the EU are feeling poorer. It's just that they don't necessarily blame Brexit

Estimates are that the country is 60 billion quid poorer than it would be if the ref hadn't happened,
BUT almost no Leaver will believe that, or any significant figure, because most people don't feel poorer

The leavers I know are very excited about a possible fall in house prices (first time buyers)
Tbh, I think a lot of the economic concerns are a bit too abstract for many ordinary voters...things like export tariffs and the exchange rate (unless you are going on holiday)
I include myself in this...I don't really understand a lot of the jargon which is why I trust the experts. And if there's 10 economists saying 'Yay EU!' and 1 saying 'Woop Brexit!' I thnk the 10 are probably right...

(Its like the whole vaccine debate)

The attitude of I'm alright Jack is partly why they 'won't succumb to fearmongering' - many of them are actually thinking short term; I have my own house/car and I won't be the first to suffer. Completely missing the point this is going to be more than a few months event until we admit to EU we need a trade deal and sign a version of the WA. Or we face 5+ years of negotiating trade deals one by one. If we go into those with our current attitude we can expect that timescale to double.

Game over.

Another med out of stock but this time there's no subs.

No date for when it's back "highly unusual" says pharmacist.

We've panicked.

We've got angry.

We're contacting doc.

Weirdly calm.

Pretty speaking of that, my friend has had a car on order through work for months; promised to her in June, moved to July then end Aug and now Nov. Apparently if you want a Yaris you can get it tomorrow. These are the kind of things I suspect are related that car dealerships won't be explaining as connected.

A cat pic for the thread - my cat eyeing up the goods in the delivery van to see if anything there for his stockpile

Oh @Hazard I'm so sorry to hear that. Is it worth looking abroad for options?

inadequate hazard

“Alternatively, if your childminder can't get to you (no petrol) how are you going to get to work.”

Childminders are actually the only form of childcare to work from their own homes. We don’t need to travel to work and we’ll be open as usual.

I tried to book a chain hotel in the south east for a night away in September. Usually the cost is £52 a night. The last time I booked it it had risen to £65. This week they quoted £110.

Don't waste one of your "free" reads on the Herald like I just did by following Just's link: it's just Gordon Brown sounding off with commitments and promises that he has no authority to deliver like he did in the run up to the Indyref

He's "talked" with EU leaders and "believes" that they will withdraw the 31 October Brexit deadline, to take the pressure off BlowJob and stop him being able to blame the EU for a No Deal Brexit

I think Gordon needs to take a nap

It's just that they don't necessarily blame Brexit.

Leavers won't; it will have just happened anyway. Remainers probably will. My DCs have both left the country. It's not directly Brexit related because they have been planning this for a number of years. But Brexit hasn't given them the confidence to stay and believe that the country has a future.

The leavers I know are very excited about a possible fall in house prices (first time buyers)

The only thing that will reduce house prices by any appreciable degree is more houses. All else is cruft.

And the elite have no intention of killing the house that lays the golden egg.

I'm guessing a lot of those Leavers have also nailed their grasp of quantum physics.

Childminders are actually the only form of childcare to work from their own homes. We don’t need to travel to work and we’ll be open as usual.

What did I just write about peoples tendency to view things from only one perspective ?

All that means is just a fancy way of the EU offering an extension

This means that if BJ chooses to refuse it, he would be directly choosing No Deal

We've had house price crashes before, during recessions
I can remember a few myself.
Rents fell too, as many tenants had less money

Homelessness increased

If people can't pay mortgages, then the bank / building society does get an order to evict them, take possession and sell off the property,
regardless of whether the owners are in negative equity - and regardless of whether they have anywhere to stay

If the economy crashes, some people won't have the money to pay current mortgages or rent - those who won't be able to cut back on "luxuries", especially if Sterling crashes too and food prices rise a few months later

We've had house price crashes before, during recessions I can remember a few myself.

It's a song from somewhere, but "that was then, this is now ..."

Ever since the ref, umpteen British journalists / papers, even Remainer ones, have claimed at some time that the EU will give in

Usually such "scoops" are either directly fed to a compliant journalist by leading Brexiter politicians, or journalists hear a rumour invented by Brexiters and wishful thinking takes over

I repeat the advice long ago of ananonymous high EU official:

"Do NOT believe the EU has made concessions until you see it in the German press, not the British media"

The EU will NOT blink wrt the WA

They can't:
Dumping Ireland and / or abandoning goods borders would literally destroy the EU, so that is for them the worst case
No loss of UK trade can be as bad for them as that

Ah, DG This touching faith in house prices
written in the bible of the UK mc

Yes, the govt may try any tricks - the return of mortgage tax relief, bungs to various classes of buyers, .....

but if the economic recession is bad enough, they won't be able to do enough

Rather like a govt has various measures - interest rates etc - to stop its currency crashing

However, if the economic outlook is bad enough, then the currency will crash whatever they do
Soros made a billion when a UK govt last learned that lesson

They won't try much with the currency again, unless it really falls off the cliff
However, I expect desperate measures to prop up hosue prices - and rents

It's just that if the UK is left in No Deal for long enough, then the exports crash will take the economy too far down to save even the sacred house prices of the mc

Dumping Ireland and / or abandoning goods borders would literally destroy the EU, so that is for them the worst case

It should now be clear to all but the thickest of the thick that is the idea, and has always been. Brexit is a stalking horse intended to cleave the EU open to picked over by the US - possibly the most hypocritical power on earth.

After Britain, that is.

If any leavers remain puzzled (see what I did there ?) as to why the EU "won't give us a deal", it's because they twigged our game very earlier on, and prepared accordingly.

Apparently the response to the UKs request for US dosh to replace the EUs Galileo was something like "Why ?". We won't hear another squeak, until the UKs purchase of US GPS tech is announced (as a triumph). With no explanation of why the EU (and India, and China, and Russia) all feel the need not to use the US GPS system(s).

Thank you lonely and woman looking at options. Have a few loose connections to a few people living in the EU haven't spoken to them recently but it's a possibility. Not sure how it would work with a UK prescription. Airlines won't let DP fly due to his health.

Can just buy it on line but I'm concerned about fake meds....just not sure what to do for the best.

Also one prescription/order online wont last forever and we'll have to keep jumping through hoops. And what happens if more meds are unavailable?!

We haven't even left yet.

DP actually said should we consider leaving the country, it would have to be by ferry and he is actively unwell so it won't be easy. Then theres benefits to consider.

Just...what the fuck are we suppose to do?

Sorry bombardment of half thoughts.