Westministenders: EARRRTHHHHHQQQUUUAAKKKKEEEE

[RedToothBrush]

Well.

Thats a surprise!

Red that was a very interesting analysis. There's some here too ( with charts!).

www.businessinsider.com/european-election-results-uk-regrets-brexit-votes-remain-2019-5

Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford

Jeremy Hunt warns the Tories will be committing 'political suicide' if they attempt to force through no-deal Brexit

He says in Telegraph that Brexiteer candidates are offering a 'prospectus for disaster' and risk 'extinction' of Tory Party

Interesting thanks for posting Edith.

This is the truth, I’m surprised that Hunt’s aware of it.

Absolutely ridiculous underpinning assumption that nobody who voted for the green party did so for, you know environmental issues which is the green parties whole raison d'etre. Any nobody who voted for the snp did so because they want Scottish independence??and why aren't cons in the pro eu count?if you want to take election results as being purely on the Brexit issue then an apt comparison would be Brexit vs change UK.

Perhaps the answer is for all the main political parties to do what UKIP/Brexit did and reinvent themselves with a new name.

woman "I voted Green, and they give me the heeby jeebies.They are very anti semitic"

Oh, I didn't know that about the Greens
How horrible
I was celebrating the rise of the Greens as a fruitful move fore "change"

Hopefully anti-semitism for Geens is only a UK Green phenomenon

They certainly aren't in Germany,
but then here, anti-semitic is only for the most extreme of the far right, a small minority even among the minority who are anti-Muslim

Cut and twist the figures how ever you like but the biggest flaw in any argument that "Leave/Remain won" is that only 37% of the electorate voted.

Very disappointing for both sides, the EU voting average was 51%

I know of course the UK Greens have prioritised transmen above women
I also don't see that in Germany

I work on a v large R&D / production site and we had an official EMail a few months ago that a man had been seen a few times in the womens loos

He was reportedly just there, not otherwise misbehaving,
but the EM called him a "Ratte" with no tolerance of the possibility that he might be self-IDing

• that doesn't seem to be accepted here

But I think the Brexit Pary (and let's ignore UKIP shall we?) want to be a single issue party : LibDem/ Green etc. are well rounded proper political parties with other policies. That's why Change UK didn't do well : remainers felt they had other valid parties to vote for. Indeed, I voted LibDem for that reason. I like (nearly) all their policies and saw them as a Remain vote,. Which indeed they are : their position on Europe is clear.

I instinctively mistrust a single issue party.

Brexit party is UKIP rebranded, a vehicle for Farage and came complete with an uncomplicated (though limited) message, MEPs and voters. Change is a completely new party in the crowded middle ground. It’s not a good comparison.

So the useless Corbyn who believed he was actually making his position clear while keeping his position surrounded in mystery has had his card well and truly marked. The Tories with their infighting and therefore ineffective government have been trounced. No wonder, we had to have someone to vote for who had a clear stance on Brexit. It had to be the Libs as the Greens had the same message but was diluted by their other aims.

Hunt showing some awareness.

Blimey.

How are they going to prevent bojo from being in the final 2?

Because of he is, he's the next Tory leader.

I am guessing Hunt has read Lord Ashcroft's polls. As a born-again Brexiteer, this could be the only reason.

Many thanks for that thoughtful analysis, Red

Brexit (+ 0 UKIP) = 29 seats
LD+Green + SNP+PC+SF+Alliance =^ 29^

Re the objection to counting all Green or SNP votes as Remain:

This is why a PV is the only way to determine purely the Brexit / Remain preference - so you'll be supporting a PV then !

All the established parties - especially CON & LAB - will have a hard core of voters who will vote tribally, even if they disagree on major policy issues

I regard a PV as the risky option of last resort, if the HoC / govt won't do their jobs, but it would at least tell us what the electorate choose now

• but this time any Leave option must be a specific one, whether No Deal or WA

The 2016 ref asked a very general question, which encompassed all imaginable ways of Brexiting;
now we know the only available options for achieving Brexit, it would be fair to ask if either is still preferred to Remain

BCF re Greens.

Gibbon: "Can you be deposed as leader?"
F: "At the moment, 'no', it's a startup."
We run turquoise party 'like a business'.
www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farage-remainers-never-accept-the-result-of-any-election

@tnewtondunn
Interesting. A lot of money now being spent to promote this on social media/digital advertising. Very similar peer pressure whipped up on Tory MPs to vote down May’s Brexit deal, which worked. Same graphics too. Who’s paying for it?

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133158165799931904

Farage is following the same strategy as Trump, in firing up the (mostly older) chunk of the electorate that inherently prefer authoritarianism
- and generally want a simple answer to cover everything

I expect him in any GE to copy the simple 3-4 word slogans, like Trump's "lock her up", "build a wall",
that were so easy for those voters to chant

• no more manifesto than that is required for his voter chunk

Farage might even literally copy "drain the swamp" - that slogan could resonate in almost any country

Hunt is not a " born-again Brexiteer"

Hunt is a born Hunter, like Boris is a Boriser

Both flagrant opportunists, without any fixed principles except "ME. What is best for MEEEE"

I expect him in any GE to copy the simple 3-4 word slogans
Yes, I'm sure he will.
Just a question of how big the actual political appetite is for that here.
No matter how much we are told this is airstrip one, this is still the land of Boaty Mac Boat Face and Gareth Southgate.

This is fun
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3597052-To-ask-for-your-Tory-double-barrelled-leadership-name

I dint think that Europe rising is a flash in the pan either. It seems that many people who dint normally go to vote in the EU elections, the laid back pro Europe voters who felt they didn’t need to fight for it, woke up and actually make themselves heard.

I’m still very unsure about a PV.
What will be on that referendum? Remain or No Deal? A 3 way vote with the WA? (Remembering there will be no other agreement apart from that one)
If people REALLY supporting a No Deal are about 25%, how much are the ones who REALLY want Remain? And how will people who support a WA (aka all the ones who wanted leave but not the No Deal - which is what politicians had promised them after all) vote?
So many uncertainties that I suspect that a vote will, again, be very close to 50/50 and will STILL not giving any sense of direction or power to implement either results.

@women19 I know Aaron Banks has donated and there appears to be quite a few millionaires behind it. It will be interesting to watch the BP evolve into a fully fledged party. Their manifesto and member rules will give a few hints about its backer intentions.

@eggandbutter, as a country we do appear to be evenly split down the middle.

The new mantra that I've started hearing from the Turquoise Party is Losers' Consent

I've heard both Faragit and the ageing former Strictly contestant reiterating it.

It's a variant of "It's the Remainers fault that the sunny uplands are not appearing and it's all a bit more difficult than we thought it would be and the world isn't bowing down in recognition of who we are"

It absolves Leavers of any responsibility of actually working through and demonstrating just how their glorious unrealistic future is going to come about. It's the pesky Losers' fault

He says in Telegraph that Brexiteer candidates are offering a 'prospectus for disaster' and risk 'extinction' of Tory Party

Note his priority - the prospectus for disaster would destroy the Party.

The next test for Farage is the Peterborough by election. His best chance would be if he was putting up an ex-Tory MP. I don't know if that is the case, but I see that the field is crowded. I could see this being a night where the Tory gets in and the party breathes a sigh of relief. The Press and BBC scream about how the Brexit candidate has pushed Labour into xx place, not noting that Farage didn't win. The LibDems and Greens get a vote share that they are happy with, and they get a passing mention.....

Guido Fawkes and Con Home both have a list of Tory leadership candidates and who has declared support for them so far.

Those Tories 'who have not decided' if they are standing yet, are those who haven't managed to get many to support them yet. I must admit to howling when I saw that Steve Baker who is 'still considering his position' is backed by just one MP so far; Mark Francois. The ERG have abandoned him. So pretty safe to say he's probably not going to run.

So far we have

Raab 20
Henry Bellingham, Suella Braverman, Maria Caulfield, Robert Courts, David Davis, Helen Grant, Chris Green, Eddie Hughes, Andrea Jenkyns, Gareth Johnson, Maria Miller
Anne-Marie Morris
Andrew Murrison
Tom Pursglove
Hugo Swire

Robert Syms
Michael Tomlinson
Shailesh Vara
Nadhim Zahawi

Sorry posted too soon...

Anyway Raab is clearly the ERG wing nut candidate. Mr Details is attracting the support of those who are big on lack of details.

Will do the others shortly.