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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

OP posts:
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BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 16/05/2019 23:21

I keep thinking about Boris.

Not through choice I can assure you.

Remembering his ambivalence about which way to jump.

Remembering his horrified face the day after the referendum.

We all know he's not committed to anything but himself.

I can see him getting into No.10

Sniffing the wind, depending on EP election results.

And revoking A50!

Should I be locked up?

lonelyplanetmum · 16/05/2019 23:32

It's not a risk worth taking is it? Would Boris betray his ERG chums - they seem quite soul matey to me?

If Boris's misfeasance in public office case leads to a criminal conviction doesn't he have to step down anyway?

lonelyplanetmum · 16/05/2019 23:40

While nobody knows how to Brexit efficiently, the word is a contraction of Britain / British exit

I definitely think the word is flexible due to its short life span and lack of agreed definition. In the hands of a UKIPer (for example) it could mean encouraging non EU citizens to exit Britain. It could mean getting Britain to exit from the UN. It could mean Britain exiting from the commonwealth. It could mean exiting from broken Westminster politics.

Anyway whatever it means fleece it Faragit is no longer focussing on the EU.

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 16/05/2019 23:41

God, no, not suggesting I'd want him in No.10.

And one would think he'd keep a low profile in view of the potential criminal conviction, but he doesn't seem remotely fazed by it.

I think he'd betray anyone yes.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 23:46

"Parliament as it stands won't allow no deal. "

We keep discussing how much power the HoC has to prevent No Deal
and imo very dangerous to rely on this

The current HoC won't vote for No Deal,
BUT so far the only active step they have agreed on is to ask for an extension, so passing on the ecision to the E27
The HoC haven't looked prepared to vote for anything else, such as Revoke or PV or the WA

We don't know who the PM will be in October

  • if the HoC votes again to ask for an extension, a Brexiter PM can intentionally threaten the EU that an extension would be too dangerous to grant

Imagine the EU reaction if faced with PM Boris threatening & insulting them .....

BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 23:50

How long will this Parliament last ?

Would a few Tory Brexiters side with BREX and hence vote with Labour to bring down the govt ?

With so many parties competing, FPTP means Farage could become PM with a majority, from only about 29% of the vote

If allied with a Tory rump, he could become PM on an even lower %
At 20%, BREX would only get about 30 seats, but their seats ramp up very steeply and they become a major force after about 24%

Electoral Calculuss@ElectCalculus*

Interesting electoral fact.
Although/because there are many parties, a single party can get a majority in parliament with around 29pc of votes.

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 16/05/2019 23:53

It doesn't bear imagining really BCF.

Off and Fuck might be in there somewhere.

But the rope would be cut surely?

Ellie56 · 16/05/2019 23:56

I am not sure which scenario horrifies me most - Boris as PM or Nigel as PM. Eek!

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 16/05/2019 23:57

Good grief!

If that happened I would have to seriously take to Gin

Littlespaces · 17/05/2019 00:04

Boris and Nigel teamed up - PM and Deputy

Facilitating a No Deal, followed by shit hitting the fan, desperation & ........at some stage signing WA.

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 17/05/2019 00:07

That might just prompt QEll to throw in the towel!

NoWordForFluffy · 17/05/2019 00:09

The HoC haven't looked prepared to vote for anything else, such as Revoke or PV or the WA

Yet. They haven't been faced with a Brexiteer no deal loon at the helm to date.

Icantreachthepretzels · 17/05/2019 00:19

I think I'll worry about who will replace TM once she's gone. I won't believe she's going anywhere until she's out the door.

thethethethethe · 17/05/2019 01:23

Imagine Boris as PM and Farage as Deputy. The majority of the country in favour of a hard Brexit (as seems to be suggested by the currrent polls?). The UK the nutcase of the world.
I find it hard to understand how people can admire and support someone who LOOKs like Farage (and to a slightly lesser degree Boris) -all those loony facial expressions. Before they open their mouths even. Seems to appeal to people somehow. The same with Trump.

LonelyTiredandLow · 17/05/2019 04:59

Up early and wondering if people have engaged with leavers on the NHS/handgun/expats/climate issues at all? I have been and have seemingly managed to make some think! Especially the "why do you hate your cuntry" brigade who can't answer why, if they love it so dearly, they want to change it so irreparably.

I do think NF may have peaked too soon. Weak attempts at "but aren't you bored of the same old arguments against him?" easily countered by "if it walks like a duck..." and "it isn't smear to use someones own words against them".

I have to say I think a lot of the hype around the party is exaggerated and MSM spin to sell/ex tory donor spin. I have hope of an LD surge and not much faith in the polls tbh.

borntobequiet · 17/05/2019 05:30

Would Boris betray his ERG chums?
Yes. Boris would betray anyone in a heartbeat if it were in his own interest. Would he on Brexit? Depends on the benefit to him.
I think TM might go for a very looooong timetable for departure. Her strong point is prevarication.

borntobequiet · 17/05/2019 05:31

I hope LBD target both Farage and Johnson big time.

borntobequiet · 17/05/2019 06:00

Farming Today interesting on Irish beef farmers obtaining funds from the EU to compensate for market disruption caused by Brexit - UK beef farmers will probably look for similar support from UK Govt. Good luck with that.

CrunchyCarrot · 17/05/2019 06:15

No Tory leaflets here yet (had Labour, CUK and Brexit).

Boris and PM and Farage as Deputy? Farage will flounce eventually, over something. He's loving the attention at the moment but as soon as hard work and actual policies are required he'll be off. Really he should have quit whilst he was ahead after he left UKIP and Leave won the Ref. This time he's in danger of having his name dragged through the mud when things inevitably go wrong and the public realise what he's really like. Boris and Farage sorting out Brexit? Hahahahaha. Give me strength.

I dread the state of this country by Christmas. Eurovision looks sane by comparison.

bellinisurge · 17/05/2019 07:00

Don't worry, Faridge couldn't be Boris' deputy because Faridge is not an MP. Or a Peer (which , I think, would be the only way of having that slimy twat in the Cabinet if he wasn't an MP).
Boris wouldn't get enough votes from MPs to get on the final list that goes the Conservative Associations because he, too, is a slimy twat. Untrustworthy too (in case that isn't covered by the term "slimy twat") so he won't get the MP support. I actually think they like seeing him get humiliated in public so he will certainly be in tbe starting bunch.

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 07:21

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/big-tobacco-funding-conservatives-nhs-hancock-raab-davis-a8916561.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Big tobacco secretly bankrolling anti-NHS think tank whose bosses donate thousands to Tory leadership contenders, an investigation reveals
British American Tobacco is funding the Institute of Economic Affairs, which has called for the NHS to be abolished, while previous funders include sugar and soft drinks companies

The IEA has dubbed the NHS one of the most “inefficient and overrated health systems in the world” and a 2016 report argued for a private health insurance model in the UK with top-up payments.

It has close links to the Conservative Party and the chair of its board of trustees, Neil Record, donated £32,000 to health secretary Matt Hancock between 2010 and 2018.

Dominic Raab – who, alongside Mr Hancock, is aiming to succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader – also has close links with the IEA, speaking at its 60th anniversary event, and promoting an annual essay competition as recently as last month.

While Mr Hancock is among the biggest beneficiaries, 30 Tory MPs including David Davis, Liam Fox and David Willets have received cash or hospitality from Mr Record or fellow trustee Sir Michael Hintze.

In total MPs have declared funding to the value of £166,000 from the pair since 2005, and they have donated £4.3m to the Conservative Party.

A extra £350 million for the NHS?

OP posts:
OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/05/2019 07:41

We've not had any Tory leaflets yet either. Lib Dem, Brexit, Labour and Green have arrived.

1tisILeClerc · 17/05/2019 07:45

{Parliament as it stands won't allow no deal. }
I think I am correct in saying that as A50 has been triggered and the 'end point' is exit with or without a 'deal' Parliament is not in a position to say (to the rest of the world) we won't accept no deal. It is for UK consumption only.

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered.
I believe the MN 'antidote' is a small quantity of 'brain bleach' as the stock replies of burning your house down or LTB are not relevant to you.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 07:49

bellini The concerns about Farage becoming PM or Deputy PM would be after a GE

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 08:04

If Boris or any other Brexit Ultra becomes PM, I estimate about 1% chance that the HoC would have the power / gumption to rescue us from No Deal
i.e. the same chance as that May will do so by Revoking

Constitutionally, the HoC can delay / block things, but little precedent of them forcing the govt to carry out a particular policy

There are 160 Tory MPs who demand ND + 10 DUP

There is Corbyn who to date has blocked Labour MPs from voting for a PV or Revoke

  • he probably wants a Tory ND so he can come to power when people are sufficiently desperate to accept anything

One hope of avoiding No Deal is if a more knowledgeable Brexiter like Gove is May's replacement, who would avoid ND of his own volition - but would go for a softer Brexit

The desperation of hoping that Gove will save us .....

Otherwise, May could cling on, with one long extension after another until the next GE, by which time not enough voters may want Brexit
and Farage may have imploded his new party too.

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