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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 17:03

Pretty, yougov did not do that survey by EU constituency. Just their normal regional breakdown. Those samples are a) small b) could easily have a YouGov region where an EU constituency has no people surveyed at all and instead are all from a neighbouring constituency which is in the same YouGov region.

The data that the map was made from was based on the survey YouGov released today which only has 5 regions: North, Scotland, Wales and Midlands and Rest of the South.

The Rest of the South includes the EU constituencies of SW, the SE and parts of East of England.

The Wales and Midlands includes the EU constituencies of Wales, East Midlands and West Midlands and bits of East of England.

The North of England includes NW and NE. If you've surveyed more people in the NE than NW this will make the data unreliable on a constituency level. Especially when you consider the NW has 8 seats but the NE only 3.

The only two which are relatively reliable are Scotland and London as they match EU constituencies.

What was interesting in the Comres survey by actual EU constituency was that the NE and NW were very different in nature. Equally you have the SW which has a low population but high LD support which could be missed in yougovs survey.

It's also been stressed by academics who study polls that you shouldn't trust the regional breakdowns too much anyway as they have very low samples so the margin of error on a regional level is higher. You want to be looking for specific constituency based polling with a large sample size for more accurate indications if what will happen.

When I've looked at the figures by region, just a tiny number of votes can swing the seats in larger constituencies (we are talking 100s or even less).

The largest constituencies are London, SE and North West (if memory serves) and certainly the NW and London favour parties which are not the Brexit Party.

My point being, don't panic and ignore that map. It's statistical arse. Trust me.

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prettybird · 17/05/2019 17:23

Confused Do you mean howabout ?

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 17:34

Yes. Brain not engaged. Sorry!

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Violetparis · 17/05/2019 17:38

Thanks for all the info on the map/statistics Red.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 17/05/2019 17:57

Flowers stripey

I hope you find you can vote. I have fingers crossed for you.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 18:01

stripeychina 💐 You are ill, but you still got rid of a tiresome ex - you are strong and certainly not stupid
Don't believe him, check with the council - you are probably still on the electoral roll at your old address

prettybird · 17/05/2019 19:00

I think this was an article in the Guardian, but having copied and pasted the body of it, I can't find the source again Blush

NICOLA Sturgeon believes the Scottish Tories are “terrified” of Boris Johnson becoming the next prime minister.

The First Minister, speaking on BBC radio 4’s Today programme, said the Tory toff would push Scots towards independence after he confirmed that he intends to challenge for the party leadership.

Asked what impact the former foreign secretary would have on the debate in Scotland if he became the next Tory chief, Sturgeon said: "I think it would lead to many more people thinking that the best future for Scotland is to be independent so that we can protect our interests, that we can take our own decisions, that we can co-operate with other independent countries across the European Union for our mutual interest.

"In other words, be a normal, progressive independent country.

"Boris Johnson, the guy who misled people in the Brexit vote, the guy who has only ever put his own interests first as far as I can see – a complete and utter charlatan in my opinion.

"The prospect of him becoming prime minister of the United Kingdom is, I think, one that will horrify many people across Scotland.

"Even the Scottish Tories here are terrified at the prospect because I think they know what it would do to their standing."

Speaking ahead of next week’s European Parliament elections, the First Minister urged all those who opposed the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, regardless of their opinion on independence, to vote for the SNP.

“If you want to send a message that Scotland wants to remain in Europe, that we don’t want Brexit, that we didn’t vote for Brexit in 2016 and there’s no sign Scotland wants Brexit now, then vote for the party that is the biggest, strongest, most consistent anti-Brexit voice.”

Sturgeon said that even those with reservations about a Yes vote should back her party.

“The polls in Scotland would suggest that people in Scotland see the SNP as the best vehicle to send that anti-Brexit message.

“It’s no secret, top anybody, that the SNP want Scotland to be independent and the last three years have actually strengthened the case for independence.”

The First Minister dismissed suggestions that Scots were “upset” that the SNP were pushing for independence in the near future and pointed out that a majority of people want an independence referendum and that a recent poll put independence support at above 49%.

Sturgeon accepted that there was a debate about the timescale, adding: “My proposition is that if we wait too long we risk untold damage being done to Scotland’s interests, certainly by Brexit, and then possibly the prospect of having someone like Boris Johnson as prime minister of the UK.

“So being independent is the best way for Scotland in the longer term to protect our interests and make sure that we can stand up for ourselves as an independent country, like other independent countries in the European Union already do.”

The First Minister was again asked if Remainers may be reluctant to vote for the SNP for fear of breaking up the Union.

Sturgeon pointed to the SNP’s huge leads in opinion polls, which she said “suggests that people in Scotland are actually reasonably happy about the positioning and performance of the SNP”.

The next topic on the agenda was plans for a Scottish currency.

The SNP leader said using the UK pound until economic tests had been met to switch to a Scottish currency would offer Scots “security, stability and certainty”.

Probed on the timing of the switch to a Scottish currency, Sturgeon said the Scottish Government would decide when the time was right based on the interests of Scotland’s economy and society.

She added: “Crucially, people in an independent Scotland will vote for a parliament and entrust the decisions and the governance of those decisions to a democratically elected parliament – that’s the normalcy of being an independent country.”

Asked whether she "feels sorry" for Prime Minister Theresa May, Sturgeon said: "I as a leader, as somebody who's First Minister, I understand the pressures of leadership.

"And I understand how tough and challenging, often lonely, that position is.

"So on a personal level, yes I can feel a degree of sympathy about the difficult set of circumstances she's had to deal with.

"That said, I don't think she has played the hand she was given particularly well.

"I think she's taken a lot of decisions that nobody made her take that has made the situation a lot worse."

Hasenstein · 17/05/2019 19:01

Red, that's a great analysis and a reminder that even small distortions can make polling data meaningless. As I have no idea whatsoever about the technical aspects of this kind of assessment, your insight is a great boon.

Littlespaces · 17/05/2019 19:22

Flowers StripeyChina

Please stay. We can help cheer each other up.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 20:38

YouGov@YouGov

THREAD/ We take an in-depth look at EU Parliament voting intention. First up, new headline results:

Brexit Party - 35%

Lib Dem - 16%
Lab - 15%
Green - 10%
Con - 9%

Change UK - 5%
UKIP - 3%
Other - 7%

(Fieldwork 12-16 May)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/16/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro?
.....
Only 35% of 2017 Labour voters - and just 20% of 2017 Conservative voters - say they intend to vote for those parties again at the EU Parliament elections.

62% of Tory voters will back the Brexit Party, while 43% of Lab voters will go Lib Dem/Green/CHUK
....
Age is a key factor in voting intention for the EU Parliament elections.

The older someone is, the more likely they are to vote Brexit Party.
Likewise, the younger someone is the more likely they are to back the anti-Brexit parties (LD/G/CHUK) or Labour

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
TalkinPaece · 17/05/2019 20:45

My problem with Polls - and it will be perennial
is that people know they will be published
and people getting points for each poll they take
will get more if they faff

YouGov no longer ask me about Brexit
so I lose out on the multiples of £50 (I got one this week)

Youngsters play the polling game
so the pollsters hear what makes a news story
but it may not predict an election (both my kids are on Yougov, they get different surveys than I do)

so all the polls are frankly so much finger in the air bullshit

bring back Peter Snow a nd the swingometer

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 17/05/2019 20:47

The older someone is, the more likely they are to vote Brexit Party

And the older someone is the more likely they are to vote? Sad

Iambuffy · 17/05/2019 20:55

Just had an email from remain voter.
Had to do a survey about tactical voting

yolofish · 17/05/2019 21:07

omg that AIBU thread about the rich, white, nice kind landlord with 2 kids at Oxbridge brexiteer... sorry, it's been a long day cant link!

HazardGhost · 17/05/2019 21:23

Just checked Buffy and I think I have the same email.

prettybird · 17/05/2019 21:24

I'm also on YouGov. I'm getting one a month at the moment (excluding the "Prize Draw Survey") despite my settings being "as many as possible".

I'm sure it has nothing whatsoever to do with my strongly asserted political views and that I'm close to "earning" my £50 Hmm

I'm equally sure that my "mind is not going to be changed" has also contributed to me getting no political survey Wink

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 21:57

Jack Blackburn @ hackblackburn
^Rory Stewart - years of patient, intelligent, diligent service gets him a rating of 27% for competence from Tory members.
Boris Johnson - years of lies, cock-ups of different kinds and being the worst foreign secretary in living memory. HE GETS 61%?^

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 22:09

_ Marina Hyde_: Is there a single blue-rinse Tory who doesn’t fancy a knee-trembler with Boris Johnson?

Dear God, what a title ! 🤮

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/17/tory-boris-johnson-leadership-candidate

If Johnson’s is one of the two names that makes it past the parliamentary ballot, he is surely nailed on.

Among the Tory party’s madly reactionary members, who lag about 30 years behind the rest of the country in every attitudinal survey, there is barely a blue rinse out there who doesn’t secretly fancy a knee-trembler with this winsomely naughty boy, 54.

Sure, there will be a few Tory MPs who keep their word and decline to stick around in the event of Johnson winning
....
But in general, you should give as much credence to Tory MPs’ earlier expressions of principle as far as Johnson is concerned
as you should have done to all the celebrities who said they would emigrate if Labour got into power in 1997

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 22:15

imo, the main charm Boris has for Tory Party members is the 70% rating for "win an election"

The next highest rating for that is 42% (Raab)

CordeliaWyndamPryce · 17/05/2019 22:22

RTB the concerning thing about that data is that 67% think boris is up to the job but only 61% think he is competent. So 6% think he is incompetent but still up to being prime minister? What the actual fuck?!

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 22:33

Leadsom, Raab & Mordaunt each with 50+% for likeable personality Confused

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:40

So 6% think he is incompetent but still up to being prime minister? What the actual fuck?!

It's just like the Republican Party. They don't care if it gets them what they want.

In the US it was control of the Supreme Court and the opportunity to over turn roe v wade.

Here it's the chance to dismantle the Human Rights Act and Equality Act, to sell off the NHS and to bring in tax reforms to get even richer off.

They don't care if Johnson is incompetent on all other matters as long as they get a shot at that. Because they don't care about representing the interests of the public. They just care about their own power and wealth. They can afford their own health, security and services. The rest of the population are merely a means to an end and after No Deal they have out lived their usefulness...

The sooner you realise that the more sense it makes.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3588567-Westminstenders-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred-Reprise?watched=1
New thread

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:49

I notice the narrative to enable no deal has already got the Telegraph front cover about how a GE could let in Corbyn.

It's a pitch to Tory Moderate MPs to support a hard right candidate... Or else.

Do they fear they No Deal or Corbyn more. The answer has always ultimately been Corbyn.

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:10

Arron Banks gave '£450,000 funding to Nigel Farage after Brexit vote'

He still has the Chelsea home - valued at £4 million - car and bodyguards, so who is paying now ? Hmm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/16/arron-banks-allegedly-gave-450000-funding-to-nigel-farage-after-brexit-vote

Tycoon provided Farage with Chelsea home, car and money to promote him in US, Channel 4 News claims