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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:13

In a GE, Boris could lose his Uxbridge seat - very Remainy area

That would probably make him avoid a GE, if he becomes PM
So either No Deal or continuing extensions & logjams until 2022 when we have to have one

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 23:21

The vulnerability of Boris's seat is a saving grace and his achilies heel.

Yes he will want to prevent a GE at all costs. There will only be so much he can do for that.

He HAS to be the strongman figure or he loses vote share to Farage though too. That rules out extension to my mind.

If we think politics have got nasty, I think we should brace ourselves for the next couple of months. It's going to get taken up a notch.

Raab knows Johnson’s weakness too. And he doesn't have the same concern.

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 23:30

You could put it another way

Boris needs to No Deal and needs to work hard to prevent a GE. His options are limited to brazen it out and blame everyone else. He has to play the game with the Tory Moderates - the one that brought down May. However Moderates need to decide between party and policy and their track record is overwhelmingly party first. He can not strike another deal as there isnt an alternative deal to be had. Of course he'll say he wants a deal. That's just him setting up the narrative of blame. "oh well I tried it's the EU's fault for not respecting the will of the British people and compromising.

Raab wants to No Deal but he can perhaps afford to trigger a GE and run on a no deal platform, perhaps with support / a pact / another sort of arrangement with Farage. And still potentially come out as PM, if he looks tough and plays the blame game we'll enough. Then he has a mandate to do what he likes. Keep an eye out on who he cozies up to.

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:39

I agree, very unlikely Boris would ask for an extension, so it would be No Deal Brexit on 1 November

Even if the HoC again order this - and the majority for this was small last time - he can just set ridiculous conditions and make threats about what he'd do during an extension
i.e. so the E27 refuse it.

thethethethethe · 17/05/2019 23:39

Can't Boris get himself selected as a candidate for a more right-wing constituency? One of the ones that wants to de-select their current Tory MP because of their remainist tendencies?

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 23:41

Not without looking like a coward. It doesn't go with the strongman image to switch to a safer seat.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/05/2019 00:03

imo, Boris might be able to do so - his fans, like Farage's, would overlook any fault
and would want their hero to have a seat away from those horrible Remainers.

We would think him a coward, but they won't

Depends how lazy he is, whether he cba to move

greenelephantscarf · 18/05/2019 08:33

mobile.twitter.com/Botanygeek/status/1129450679863525376

James Wong
@Botanygeek
Today in the voiceover booth....

ME: 'Spouts geeky facts about the plant, borage.'

SOUND GUY: ‘Borage’ sounds like the name of a pretty terrifying future coalition government. Like ‘Brangelina’.

Please god, don’t make this an accurate prediction....

Peregrina · 18/05/2019 09:23

He has to play the game with the Tory Moderates - the one that brought down May.

The Tory Moderates aren't the ones who want to bring her down.

RedToothBrush · 18/05/2019 09:31

Peregina, going forward it will be framed that it was the moderates that prevented Brexit from the true visionaries of Brexit. That's the game Johnson will be playing with the moderates. Fall in line or be deselected or just walk.

May was brought down by the moderates not the likes of Jacob and Mark. They will be the good guys in the Cabinet.

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