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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 21:37

Farage's record:

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
woodpigeons · 16/05/2019 21:43

So sorry to hear that RTB .House moving is incredibly stressful even when it works out.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 21:45

Despite May's complete loss of authority and inability to do anything ..... Corbyn is just as unpopular !

Britain Electss@britainelects*

Public opinion towards...

Theresa May:
Favourable: 21% (-5)
Unfavourable: 70% (+5)

Jeremy Corbyn:
Favourable: 19% (+1)
Unfavourable: 69% (-2)

via @YouGov, 14 - 15 May
Chgs. w/ 24 Mar
......

Wales: BREX massively ahead, Tories 6th at only 7% !

European Parliament voting intention (Wales):

BREX: 33% (+33)
LAB: 18% (-10)
PC: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (+6)
GRN: 8% (+3)
CON: 7% (-10)
CHUK: 4% (+4)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 2014 result.

Mistigri · 16/05/2019 21:46

Led by donkeys are back!

This makes me happy.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 21:47

red 🍫🍫🍫

CrunchyCarrot · 16/05/2019 21:53

Farage's promises are just a mirage. Grin

Sorry, it's late and I've watched 2 hours of Eurovision's semi-final. Grin

Peregrina · 16/05/2019 22:11

All I can say is that they must be mad in Wales. (And I lived there as a child and am very fond of the country.)

What do they think the Brexit party would bring them?

Peregrina · 16/05/2019 22:14

Public Opinion never liked Corbyn, so that's not changed much, but they couldn't get enough of May.

Thankfully in this case, Wales only has 4 MEP seats. It will be interesting to see whether a Remain/Leave split appears in the UK, with places like Wales getting the 4 seats for the Brexcrement party, but the South East getting a spread.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/05/2019 22:17

What Corbyn / Labour should keep remembering is that Leave is very much a Tory issue, supported by Tory voters

Labour have slumped because of losing Reemain voters; Tories because of losing Leavers

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

Last week the number (of Remain voters) staying with Labour had dropped to 40%
and 57% said they’d look to other remain parties.
.....
2017 election result.

• Middle-class leave voters: Conservative 5.6 million; Labour 1.6 million.
• Working-class leave voters: Conservative 4.4 million; Labour 2.2 million.
.....
referendum .....
Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter.

indianbackground · 16/05/2019 22:20

Sorry may have been covered as I’m not keeping up. I’ve got Euro election leaflets through the post. Three came together- Labour, Yorkshire party and Green. Are these three connected or is it just they chose the same people to deliver? Nothing from Brexit parties yet, but they may think it’s unnecessary because this was a strong leave area.

LoonvanBoon · 16/05/2019 22:23

indian, no they're not connected. Don't know why they came together. I'm in Yorkshire too & have only had Lib Dem & Brexit party (latter for DH).

Peregrina · 16/05/2019 22:24

Just came from the postman. I think it's a coincidence that they all came at once.

Has anyone had anything from the Tories, anywhere?

lonelyplanetmum · 16/05/2019 22:31

Sorry, it's late and I've watched 2 hours of Eurovision's semi-final.

Me too. It was a fab evening .We were Disappointed those golden angel winged boys from Croatia didn't go through. It was very surprising when they appeared from on high!

Peregrina · 16/05/2019 22:37

I'd like to see Peter Kellner do an analysis of the 2016 Tory vote. In particular, have the Tory Leavers gone over to the Brexit party en bloc, and what about the Remainers? Where will they have gone?

lonelyplanetmum · 16/05/2019 22:41

So Sorry about the house problems RTB.
*
*
Also with respect to LeClerc's mention of An article in Der Spiegel (in English) has Farage saying it isn't really Brexit he is after but to 'change politics'.

I keep saying this but I have noticed this creeping in more and more too. The Faragit leaflet says this fight's no longer about the EU. He keeps distancing himself from the original premise. Now it's about honesty in politics etc (ha ha).

Brexit means Faragit.
He would not Brexit.

NoWordForFluffy · 16/05/2019 22:43

Slight misnomer if that's the case!

Peregrina · 16/05/2019 22:43

Guardian on why is Labour letting the Brexit party win the European elections.

I do take issue with one statement made:
Actually, Labour’s 2017 success depended on people believing that it was fundamentally a remain party despite tactical ambiguity on Brexit.

No, personally I think that other issues were regarded as important, especially protecting the NHS and education, on which Labour is seen as more reliable.

lonelyplanetmum · 16/05/2019 22:59

Slight misnomer if that's the case!

But that's the problem -it was a newly made up word that was undefined. I am sure if we researched linguistics that new words must evolve a lot in their early stages before their final meaning becomes fixed.

Take the word Awful: This used to mean “worthy of awe” as in “the awful majesty of God.” Then it evolved to mean the opposite.

The word and the concept of Brexit is new and evolving. It can mean anything the owner of the word wants - and unfortunately at the moment Farage owns it more than anyone and really it means Faragit...

He definitely is distancing himself from a focus on leaving the EU. He knows we need the trade and will end up with something similar.

thethethethethe · 16/05/2019 23:02

We're in Scotland. Have had: Brexit, UKIP, Tories, Labour, Lib Dem, Greens, SNP.

prettybird · 16/05/2019 23:03

Fingers crossed for you re the house move RTB Smile

The English system is so stressful Sad Done it twice in England: both times not in a chain (1st time as a 1st time buyer, 2nd time as a company move with the company paying for the old flat) and even then it was still stressful Sad

thethethethethe · 16/05/2019 23:06

What do people think about the article in Independent today saying that a Brexiter will succeed TM, will go for No Deal, will then be GM and Tories and Brexit Party will co-operate to share seats, so as to get No Deal? TERRIFYING

thethethethethe · 16/05/2019 23:08

General Election, not GM.

thethethethethe · 16/05/2019 23:10

Scottish system very stressful too, as the house surveys are rubbish. The process strongly favours the seller.

HesterThrale · 16/05/2019 23:17

We’ve had leaflets from Labour, Greens and Lib Dems. Labour one hardly mentions Europe.
Oh, and one from the English Democrats which is very England-centric:
‘England says take control of our borders!
English Jobs for English Workers!’

Jeez, do they want to stop Welsh, NI and Scots people coming over the border to England and getting a job? If so... appalling, ridiculous, deplorable and self-destructive.

Has anyone had a Tory leaflet?

NoWordForFluffy · 16/05/2019 23:17

Parliament as it stands won't allow no deal.

And who knows what sorry state the main parties will be in post-GE. They need to not get ahead of themselves as to future plans.

Do words change meaning that quickly? While nobody knows how to Brexit efficiently, the word is a contraction of Britain / British exit. And to most people that's what it means (even if they don't know how).