Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

[RedToothBrush]

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

Ok, just going through the Comres Poll break down by region. Below is the order of allocated seats / total number of seats / what it currently is:

Eastern:
1 Brexit, 2 Lab, 3 Con, 4 Brexit, 5 LD, 6 Lab, 7 Brexit
3 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD
Currently 3 Con (inc 1 UKIP defected), 3 UKIP, 1 Lab
So looks like a swing away from UKIP/Cons

East Midlands:
1 Brexit, 2 Lab, 3 Con, 4 Brexit, 5 Lab
2 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con
Currently 2 UKIP, 2 Con, 1 Lab
So swing from Con to Lab

London:
1 Lab, 2 Lab, 3 Brexit, 4 & 5 Con & LD (tied so one seat each), 6 Lab, 7 Lab, 8 between Change and Brexit (too close to call)
3 Lab, 2/1 Brexit, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1/0 Change
Currently 4 Lab, 2 Con, 1 UKIP and 1 Green
So swing away from Cons to both left and right

NE:
1 Lab, 2 Brexit, 3 Lab
2 Lab, 1 Brexit
Currently 2 Lab, 1 UKIP
So no change

NW:
1 Lab, 2 Brexit, 3 Lab, 4 Brexit, 5 Con, 6 Lab, 7 LD, 8 Lab (but very tight with Brexit)
4 Lab, 2 Brexit, 1 Con, 1 LD
Currently 3 Lab, 3 UKIP, 2 Con
So swing away from UKIP/Con towards Lab/LD

Scotland:
1 SNP, 2 Lab, 3, SNP, 4 Brexit, 5 Con, 6 SNP (but close with Lab)
3 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Brexit
Currently 2 SNP, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 UKIP
So swing from Lab to SNP

SE:
1 Brexit, 2 Lab, 3 Con, 4 & 5 LD and Brexit (tied) 6 & 7 Brexit and Lab, 8 & 9 Con & Change (tied) 10 between LD and Brexit (too close to call)
3/4 Brexit, 2 Lab, 2 Con, 2/1 LD, 1 Change
Currently 4 UKIP, 2 Con (+ 1 defected to Change), 1 LD, 1 Green, 1 Lab
So swing to LDs/Change away at expense of Lab, Green and Con

SW:
1 Brexit, 2 Lab, 3 LD, 4 Con, 5 Brexit 6 Brexit (but close with Lab, Change and LD)
3 Brexit, 1 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Con
Currently 2 UKIP, 1 Con (+ 1 defected to Change), 1 Lab, 1 Green
So swing towards Brexit from Con / Swing to LD from Green

Wales:
1 Lab, 2 Brexit, 3 Lab, 4 Brexit
2 Lab, 2 Brexit
Currently 1 Con, 1 UKIP, 1 Lab, 1 Plaid
So swing to Lab / Brexit

West Mids:
1 Brexit, 2 Lab, 3 Brexit, 4 Con, 5 Lab, 6 Brexit, 7 LD
3 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD
Currently 3 UKIP, 2 Con, 2 Lab
So swing from Con to LD

York/Humb:
1 Lab, 2 Brexit, 3 Lab, 4 & 5 Brexit and Con (tied), 6 Lab
3 Lab, 2 Brexit, 1 Con
Currently 3 UKIP, 2 Lab, 1 Con
So swing from UKIP to Lab

Its interesting because if this poll is correct, its showing a slight general swing AWAY from Brexit Party / UKIP across the country, with some gains for them in a couple of regions.

The big losers are the Conservatives and the Greens - which might be a slight surprise to Green supports. The big beneficiary are the LDs.

I note a BIG caution on this - just small errors on polling on this could make a lot of difference, and you just don't know how much of a shy Brexit Party effect there is. Its more positive than I thought it might be for everywhere bar Scotland really.

And one for the North West - Tommy Robinson doesn't look like he's got a chance. (The NW in particular looks a lot more healthy than I thought it might. Fingers crossed).

I'm thinking I'll just plump for LD with my vote. It's my natural choice generally.

NoWordForFluffy that's exactly what I've just done, for the Scotland region. We got our postal votes today and I've completed mine.

DH did his postal vote today - LD.

Dreich, I honestly don't know. I've agonized over this election so much already, looked at the past 3 results in detail & I'm none the fucking wiser.

One of the tactical voting / remainer sites, I forget which one, advised voting for the Greens in our region, as they got more votes than the LDs last time (though not enough to get an MEP). But that's not taking into account the fact that the LDs did have an MEP up until 2014 & they were still in the coalition govt in 2014, so a reduction in their vote was probably a reaction to that.

The one thing I do know is that I'm not voting for CUK. Not impressed at all so far. And I'm still drawn to Labour, despite being pissed off with Corbyn & the constant fudging. Richard Corbett is a great MEP & it would be a real shame if he's not reelected.

DH is going for the LDs, thinks they may do better than predicted.

@RTB could you post totals for that breakdown? My head's not working right tonight and I can't make the numbers add up.

Hopefully our postal votes will come soon, so I can just get it done.

I wonder if the LDs will have a surge post-locals?

Will try to shortly. Currently have a 4 year old climbing walls!

Apologies if it's been posted already. This is a new website by Gina Miller that promises to tell us on 21/5 how to vote tactically based on research which is underway. Looks promising.
https://www.remainvoter.com

Remain United would have been a good name for Change UK/independent group!

More
🇬🇧#UK, european election #poll (#EP2019) :

🔽#Brexit : 26 % (-2 %)
⏬#Lab : 23 % (-5 %)
🔽#Con : 13 % (-1 %)
⏫#LibDems : 11 % (+4 %)
🔽#Green : 5 % (-1 %)
⏸️#SNP : 4 %
🔼#UKIP : 4 % (+1 %)
🔼#Plaid : 2 % (+1 %)
⏬#ChangeUK : 2 % (-5 %)

#Opinium, 07/05/19

Ugh what a mess..I copied the wrong link!
The new website is https://www.remainunited.org
Not Remain Voter
I had both opened and copied the wrong link
Sorry for the confusion!

Just been reading Robert Peston tweets, apparently the joint Remain candidate for Peterborough was going to be Femi, the young PV campaigner. He dropped out at the last minute due to Labour saying they were going to campaign against him. Not sure why he and the other parties expected Labour to just give up defence of their seat !! Lib Dems and Greens had other candidates ready, Change UK did not.

Loon dreich - maybe us Yorks/humber types should just agree amongst ourselves who we'll all vote for, on here? It seems as good an idea as any of the remain coordinator sites. Once we've made the official westminsterenders decision for the region we can spread it far and wide
I'm leaning Lib Dem - they did amazing across the country in the locals, they could be on an upswing - and are the better known of the other remain parties. Plus they had a seat up until 2014 - that loss was punishment for the coalition.

in other news - there is a rather depressing thread over on FWR about someone's delight in being able to vote for a gender critical woman in the elections ... that woman is Claire Fox.

loon DH had some communication with Labour MEP and liked him, despite never voting Labour. But I cannot vote Labour while Jezza is doing his fantasy fence sitting.
I think I'll go Lib Dems, I mostly agree with them and they are crystal clear on Brexit.
( although I'd happily vote green if I really thought they had the best chance of a seat)
I need to get vote filled out and sent back.

Last Euro elections:
24 UKIP
20 Lab
19 Con
3 Green
2 SNP
1 LD
1 Plaid

Above Comres suggested outcome (my counting might be slightly out, as I've done quickly)
23 - 25 Brexit
24 Lab
10 Con
0 Green
3 SNP
6 - 7 LD
1 - 2 Change
0 Plaid

If that's close to the result, I don't think that would be a good result for the Brexit Party. I think they will be hoping for more gain than that.

I've got to say, I think I feel that's an optimistic result, and I fear it will be more Brexity than that if I'm honest.

I'd take the above.

We can agree that the big losers are the Tories

.... the only party who actually have a Exit fdeal and one that keeps the no FOM red line

Very useful calculations, red but I agree it is more optimistic than expected

Do they really think even Molly Scott-Cato will lose her seat in the SW? That's a big gain for the Lib Dems - but some of that must be at the Green party's expense.

An elderly relative did her postal vote - once Tory, now CUK. So the person Richard Ashworth, who used to be a Tory should have a good chance of getting in, if other ex-Tory Remainers vote the same way.
(The one who made an impassioned plea at the EU Parliament.)

Funny how we are not hearing quite so much about being unelected now, isn't it?

That's what Comres suggest. They have LDs on 17% in the SW with change on 9% and Greens trailing on 6%.

That would reflect traditional voting patterns fairly well as the LD did very well in the SW at the locals and were strong there prior to 2014 / 2015 coalition backlash wipeout. The greens were likely beneficiaries in 2014 to win a seat and that seems to have reversed.

Well pretzels as another poster in the Yorks/Humber region, I'm leaning LD.

@sturdyAlex
This is breathtaking from @MartinDaubney.

Asked by @afneil why his @brexitparty_uk has absolutely no manifesto, he responds:

“Because, as Nigel said, we’re only four weeks old and the manifesto will come out after the elections.”

Go on. Take your time. Savour this statement.

I think it will be hard to predict. Last time a good many people didn't take all that much interest in the EU elections. Brexit has changed that.

I would agree, that the Tories are likely to be the biggest losers.

I'm leaning LD.

I think LD are the way to go. The 2014 data that has greens significantly ahead is ignoring the coalition backlash. The LDs were at peak unpopularity and - as a party in power - lost any protest vote they might have used to be able to rely on. That obviously went to the greens. Nobody back then (apart from kippers - maybe) were actually voting on their feelings about Europe, as a whole, it was about the individual parties. We are in a very different place now. But the fact that LDs used to have a MEP seat in the region suggests that the voter base is there.