Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

[RedToothBrush]

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

With Farage on tv all the time, remember the Farage Paradox.

Tom Huxley 🗳️
‏*@tomwhx*

Farage fires up passion amongst core Leave voters but has proven a drag on the wider Leave vote as a whole. The 'Farage Paradox' analysed on @ITVpeston by @GuardianAnushka ft @DannytheFink @SunderSays

twitter.com/tomwhx/status/1126232292379242498

I could still see the Greens doing well in the South East.

I like the idea of a MN tactical vote for Yorks /Humber. The no 1 Lib Dem candidate Shaffaq Mohammed does sound good on an individual level too - has been campaigning consistently against brexit.

Place marking to say that the electoral fraud case I mentioned has been reported and as soon as there is a public link, I'll post it.

Another reason against a PV - is that the Electoral Commission want time to clamp down on electronic adverts

Swedish interesting that one.
Based on the Finkelstein tweet.
@Dannythefink
I think it is a reasonable (although not infallible) strategic calculation that the more votes the Brexit Party gets the less likely Brexit is.

BCF thanks for that explanation of the Geneva Convention.

@louisecollins28 - the 2017 Conservative manifesto stated: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and
allies across Europe"

I'd argue that its the erg et al, in pressing for a hard brexit (and may in threatening it) that are breaching manifesto promises - certainly not most other MPs who, when not faffing are trying to prevent a disorderly brexit.

Well, according to Sky News, the Lib Dems have launched a manifesto called ‘Bollocks to Brexit’. They may have just won my vote

And here's what you could have won

So taking the comres poll figures but with a single candidate for the LDs/Greens/Change in a Remain Alliance.

Eastern:
With Split Vote: 3 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Brexit, 2 Rem, 2 Lab, 1 Con

East Midlands:
With Split Vote: 2 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Brexit, 1 Lab, 1 Rem, 1 Con

London:
With Split Vote: 3 Lab, 2/1 Brexit, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1/0 Change
With Joint Remain Ticket: 3 Lab, 3 Rem, 1 Brexit, 1 Con

NE:
With Split Vote: 2 Lab, 1 Brexit
With Joint Remain Ticket: 1 Lab, 1 Brexit, 1 Rem

NW:
With Split Vote: 4 Lab, 2 Brexit, 1 Con, 1 LD
With Joint Remain Ticket: 3 Lab, 2 Brexit, 2 Remain, 1 Con

Scotland:
With Split Vote: 3 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Brexit
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Rem, 1 Brexit, 1 Con

SE:
With Split Vote: 3/4 Brexit, 2 Lab, 2 Con, 2/1 LD, 1 Change
With Joint Remain Ticket: 3 Rem, 3 Brexit, 2 Con, 2 Lab

SW:
With Split Vote: 3 Brexit, 1 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Con
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Rem, 2 Brexit, 1 Lab, 1 Con

Wales:
With Split Vote: 2 Lab, 2 Brexit
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Lab, 1 Brexit, 1 Rem

West Mids:
With Split Vote: 3 Brexit, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Brexit, 2 Lab, 2 Rem, 1 Con

York/Humb:
With Split Vote: 3 Lab, 2 Brexit, 1 Con
With Joint Remain Ticket: 2 Lab, 2 Brexit, 1 Rem, 1 Con

Totals
With Split Vote
23 - 25 Brexit
24 Lab
10 Con
3 SNP
6 - 7 LD
1 - 2 Change

With Joint Ticket
19 Brexit
20 Lab
10 Con
2 SNP
19 Remain

I'll just leave that with you as a thought.

Question Time is interesting tonight...

I like the idea of a MN tactical vote for Yorks /Humber.

I'll vote Lib Dem if everybody else does

In what way is QT interesting? I can't bear to watch these days, and having complained about Farage being on it, I definitely wasn't going to watch, and between posting on MN am trying to do other work on the Computer I forgot all about it.

Okay signing up for the great tactical lib dem Yorks/Humber vote of 2019.
I'll work on DH over dinner.

Interesting tweet? Eloise Todd is very active in the Remain campaign.

Keir Starmer
‏**@Keir**_Starmer

Keir Starmer Retweeted Eloise Todd
Great to be with you in Leeds @eloisetodd driving a positive Labour campaign for EU elections.

Eloise Todd
@eloisetodd

❤️🌹Brilliant afternoon in Leeds with Yorkshire’s Labour Candidates, @alexsobel with special guest @Keir_Starmer
Packed room, brilliant discussion, thanks to all who organised and everyone who came! Thanks Keir for making the trip!

Just that at the time of posting the audience seemed quite pro Farage, although he did then get called out later on for basically having no policies other than Brexit. Quite a lively discussion though.

Bollocks to Brexit certainly has a good ring to it.

If I were in the SW I would vote LD. I wouldn’t vote Green because it’s a single issue party, well two issues now - one the environment (scientific) and the other wholly unscientific, dogmatic anti-women and oppressive.
I originally joined the Liberal party on three issues: proportional representation, Europe, the environment. For many years the various evolutions of the Liberal party were the only ones with an awareness of environmental issues. LD policies I’m uncomfortable with are those on drugs and sex work. I’d have done better than R Johnson if asked the same question as she was, especially as as far as I know, CUK haven’t yet got any policies at all.

So someone give me reasons for voting LD rather than CUK in the West Midlands, apart from their no 1 being Stephen Dorrell (their no 2 is Charlotte Gath, neweuropeans.net/authors/charlotte-gath, and I wish she were top of the list).

he did then get called out later on for basically having no policies other than Brexit

He doesn't have a consistent policy on Brexit either! So the Faragit party is the exit from policies party...Poliexit? ( Sounds like a new line in the dead parrot sketch- this polly has exited.)

Interestingly, the Faragit leaflet through my door clearly said...This fight is no longer jjust about the EU.

Faragit is clearly distancing himself and is shifting position.
He has relied on sound bites and has never fully thought through complex or even simple policy.

He originally consistently advocated "doing what the Norwegians do" and then he shifted to saying such a model would leave us worse off. He knows all models leave us worse off than the one we had.

Even the Faragit leader appears to realised the folly of messing with our trade. Unfortunately his fans like my FiL haven't realised this yet.

Apologies for the repeated musings but I can see why CUK have an ex-Tory top of their list - it means that if he gets in, an experienced politician goes to EU Parl where he can be effective, or if he doesn’t stay long it doesn’t matter too much, and it frees up good people for U.K. elections. Conversely an inexperienced but high profile candidate like Johnson will do less harm there however gaffe prone (outspokenness and laziness seems to run in the family) and also leave good people for the next domestic election. Now I must get dressed and go to work.

I was at the Leeds meeting, we were packed in standing room only. I'm visible in one of the photos on Twitter!

Very interesting discussion and the speakers were excellent, made clear and sensible points and were passionately pro-European. Keir Starmer is a really good speaker and also rather good-looking They got very enthusiastic applause from the audience.

They also, unsurprisingly, made frequent reference to the idea that we should all vote Lab to keep the Turquoise Arrow out. That got much more muted applause from the audience.

Anyway, DH did his postal vote yesterday for the LDs so he's a confirmed one for the Westministenders' Yorks/Hum tactical coalition.

I was at the Leeds meeting, we were packed in standing room only.

Of course, like Fartage's Peterborough meeting, the media gave you full coverage. I am sure I will win no prizes for betting that your meeting didn't get a mention.

MIL voted too, not for Brexit, and can't stand Farage.

Am I right in thinking that since Gavin Williamson was sacked, Penny Mordaunt replaced him as Minister of Defence on May 1, and Rory Stewart left Prisons to replace her at Dept. International Development: we have NOT had any Minister for Prisons and Probation?

This is dysfunctional government.

And to have no Prisons and Probation Minister now...

The whole horrendous Joseph McCann case stinks: there is more to this than meets the eye. For such a potentially dangerous individual to be at liberty... I hadn't realised that he was incorrectly released from prison in February:

The Ministry of Justice has launched an urgent inquiry into why McCann was released in February, half way through a three-year sentence for burglary, without being referred to the Parole Board.

Iain Duncan Smith ... also expressed broader concern about whether prisoners were being released incorrectly and that mistakes were being covered up.

Warning: reading this article is very distressing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/07/joseph-mccann-iain-duncan-smith-blasts-incompetent-police-prison/

Why is there nothing in the news about the EU election candidates? The election is less than 2 weeks away and I have hardly any info.

Why is there nothing in the news about the EU election candidates?

The only one who counts as far as the media are concerned is Farage, and he's getting plenty of coverage.

Hester:

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
May's mid ranks reshuffle is finally done - 4 loyalists promoted:
Robert Buckland to Prisons Minister (next one into the Cabinet)
Lucy Frazer to Solicitor General (talked of as a future PM one day)
^Andrew Murrison to Middle East Minister
Paul Maynard to MoJ as a Parl Under Sec^

As of yesterday