Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

[RedToothBrush]

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

@Bigchoc, so a Brexit that keeps us in the CU and SM, with continued FOM, with negotiations beginning in 3 years time! How exactly is "not really Leaving, starting 3 years from now" = to "Leave"

It sounds to me like that's basically saying, I can have a Brexit, so long as you don't lose anything important to you, is that it?

"it must be delivered in what form it can be. "

Does it make any sense to deliver a form of Brexit that can be delivered, but few people want ?

A particular problem is that the most popular form of Brexit for Leavers - the only form many accept as Brexit - is No Deal,
which is the most damaging .... and nobody can produce a sensible plan for No Deal.

{It sounds to me like that's basically saying, I can have a Brexit, so long as you don't lose anything important to you, is that it?}

Or to turn it around, why should the much greater majority, those that voted remain AND all those that did not or could not vote, including children ALL loose out just to satisfy the 17.4 million that want a random version of 'leaving'?

This Parliament was voted for By the People. The People has a referendum to abolish FPTP and it failed. This Parliament is what you get.
No point in flouncing about talking about What The People Want when the People rejected an alternative to FPTP (in a referendum) and voted for these MPs in this Parliament.

Or do you want another referendum on our voting system? .....

That hot tub looks a bit cheap.

Negotiations for that kind of SM deal would take about 3 years after Brexit - it would be the quickest kind of Brexit to deliver

Any Brexit that involves leaving the SM means losing frictionless trade and hence significantly damaging the economy

Brexit means we would also lose the 40 FTAs with 70 non-EU countries and the 800 or so trade arrangements with other countries

We lose essential agencies like EURATOM

The problem is that Brexit was sold to the public - narrowly - while deceiving them about the cost

If I agree to buy something, I'd pull out of the deal if I found it had massive hidden costs that the seller had lied about or didn't know

The best solution for people who want any type of Brexit delivered to is to vote for a grouping of MPs that will be able to deliver this Brexit in big enough numbers that they are able to vote this into law.
Currently this hasn't happened not least because there is no majority anywhere for any specific type of Brexit.
There has been no wish in the country to vote for any party in large enough numbers to provide a functioning majority government.
No pro Brexit grouping has managed to gather a large enough group of like minded MP's to get anything voted through.
We elect MPs not parties and currently we are not electing ones who vote for Brexit for a number of often polar opposite reasons.
If we don't like what our MPs are doing we need to vote for new ones next time round.

Adam Bienkov @ adambienkov
New Comres European elections poll (using MRP):

Labour: 27%
Brexit Party: 26%
Conservatives: 14%
Lib Dem: 11%
Change UK: 8%
Greens: 6%
SNP: 4%
UKIP: 3%

Comres finds the Lib Dems are the leading Remain party in every region apart from Scotland and Wales.

Brexit Party doing worst in Scotland (13%) and London (18%). Best in Eastern region (32%).

Comres European poll regional breakdown:

We have a Parliamentary system in which MPs have to pass laws and approve treaties

The referendum not only bypassed this, but made promises that MPs don't know how to fulfill - without damaging the economy and making ordinary people poorer, which they don't feel they have a mandate to do.

If the EP elections were next year, the bubble of Farage's new party would probably have broken

As it is, they are still in the "honeymoon stage" - excellent timing to form the new party and to be able to spend the maximum

This form of PR and the split Remain vote suits them very well, whereas FPTP doesn't - so long as they don't get in the upper 20s for the GE as well
So they may get a higher % of MEPs than their vote

Polls are consistently finding that BREX are taking large numbers of votes from the Tories, few from Labour
Logical for a far right party

Including non voters in the total for Remain is just silly IMO

Just caught up with "Brexit Behind Closed Doors". Thought it was really interesting and utterly dispiriting re the UK at the negotiations. Did others see it? (Apologies if I missed the discussion).

Agree BigChoc, Parliament is at the heart of this (and should be). I do disagree in that I don’t believe parliament was bypassed. MPs voted to hold a referendum before it was held, and after the result was known to voted to trigger article 50.

Parliament voted for a legally non-binding referendum, not realising it would become politically binding for the next few years

They were irresponsible in so casually abdicating their responsibility, letting through such a vague referendum that promised everything

They have tried to deliver - but they can't agree on how, because they can't find a survivable way of doing this

I suspect many MPs, like Cameron, thought that even if Leave won, they had an out if the margin was narrow, or they couldn't deliver,
because it was legally non-binding.

They were irresponsibly playing gesture politics with the country's future.

They didn't notice that the ref became politically binding, despite such a narrow victory
(compared e.g. to the 65:35 for Remain in 1975)

Your argument being that Parliament only voted for a referendum it could safely ignore then.

Sorry, no most of them have tried damned hard not to deliver. Not enacting Leaving is their primary motivation as far as I’m concerned.

Has everyone seen the list of candidates for the Peterborough by election? Something seems to have gone wrong with the plan for only one Remain party candidate to stand, as LDs & Greens both have candidates. Change UK doesn't.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48218957

Missclimpson - I was talking about it last night. It was simultaneously fascinating, funny, humbling and embarrassing I think it was LonelyAndTiredAndLow who pointed out this morning that the fact that it is being allowed to be aired now is evidence that, as far as the EU is concerned the. Negotiations. Are. Over.

We're going to have to watch tonight's programme on iPlayer as it's on at the same time as The Good Fight (which sometimes we have difficulty getting on 4OD for some reason )

We have it on series record prettybird as no access to iplayer here. It was indeed embarrassing. I love the way they have conversations in three languages at once.

If that COMRES poll is accurate the remain vote split is going to be a disaster in my region, Yorks & Humber. In all of the last three euro elections a party has needed about 10% of the vote to get a seat. This poll shows LDs, CUK & Greens all getting under 10% in our region.

In our Parliamentary system, the Opposition opposes most govt bills - their function is to oppose

The problem is that May has a WA which is as good as she can get in terms of keeping her red lines like no FOM
BUT
the rightwing of her party hate it - because it won't let the uberwealthy and their US friends loot the country

So a sizeable chunk of Tory MPs keep voting against

It's the Tory party who is responsible for delivering the policy - the ref was only in their manifesto, noone else's - and so far they have failed to delieber the votes

The few Tory Remainers voting against are offset by the Labour Leavers voting for it

loovan noo, that is my region too. What do think the most sensible thing to do is?

E mail all the relevant people and parties and point out that they will all bomb together if they don't cooperate.

Poling Card arrived early this week; just 1 leaflet so far from Devon for Europe; found Brexit Behind Doors a good documentary and look forward to watching Part 2 later tonight.