Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

pmk

A lot can change in 6 weeks. I think we need to get a good turnout for EU elections and a lot of pro remain MEPs. Then there is the fact that Tories are so reluctant to campaign - I strongly think they will cobble something together and then attach the promise of a referendum to it, just to put the issue to bed for local elections.

I agree howabout. They might hang on to see what happens in the locals and then wait after that to see what occurs in the EU elections. Another 6 weeks wasted...

Alternatively they could try to rush through the WA before that and cancel the EU elections. Labour have been making noises about coming to an agreement with the Govt ‘in the next few weeks’. Is this procrastinating and can-kicking till the elections or could they really? Surely it wouldn’t be in their interest to sell out just before the vote?

I didn’t know whether to laugh or fume yesterday, hearing Philip Hammond saying, ‘Nobody wants to take part in the EU elections.’ Really?! Maybe Tories don’t. He said if they get the WA through they could cancel those elections the day before 23 May. What a way to piss off the other EU countries, particularly those who didn’t get the extra seats they'd been promised if the UK left.

Martin Kettle in the Guardian:

May faces a dilemma over timetabling. The Tory party is desperate not to hold European elections on 23 May. It fears derision, desertion and defeat if it has to go through with them. May made her own opposition explicit in her Commons statement. Labour can probably be a bit more sanguine – the polls look less bad for them. Ministers therefore fear that Labour will spin the process out, so the government is forced to make further concessions.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/11/nationalist-right-lost-battle-for-brexit-second-vote

Happy Still in the EU day.

Currently both parties officially support Brexit,
i.e. both claiming to represent the then 52%

High time that one of the parties switched to represent the 48%

That could only be Labour - and it is mainly Corbyn still blocking this

Yes there are also some Labour leave seats,
but funny how Lexiters claim to be so worried about this, whereas "Texiters™️" the Tory Brexiters are totally unworried about Tory Remain seats

It seems Brexiters of all types can only see good reason for both main parties to represent the THEN 52% and ignore the THEN 48%

(If the Tory party disintegrates, then there is a chance that new hard right and centre right parties could emerge,
with the former being nationalist Brexiters and the latter being pro business and pro-EU

However, that would take a few years to shake down, if it ever happens)

Pmk

If the Tories have their EU elections meltdown, Labour would be wasting a major opportunity:

The 52% already have the Tories, UKIP and Brexit Party scrambling for their votes
and most Leave voters do seem to have hardened very much to No Deal

Hence very limited opportunity for labour to grab the vote of a committed Leaver
but there would be little serious opposition if they try to represent the 48%

Thanks LittleSpaces. He's ok, just a bit sore (looks like he's done a few rounds with Mike Tyson). Concussion, too. So glad we don't have to pay for scans etc, it was so worrying last night, he was absolutely covered in blood & completely incoherent but not the same as previous occasions when he's been out drinking. I really worry about losing the NHS. DH feels like a twat for falling, but actually I suspect he'd only had a couple.

My post unBrexit Day #2 resolution is not to bother trying to change Leave voters' minds on here. Wonder how long that will last.
Fuck'em if they haven't changed their minds or at least started questioning the nonsense, I'm not going to make any difference.

there would be little serious opposition if they try to represent the 48%
That is much too sensible BigChoc

Hello my fellow EU Citizens :)

I'll either be voting Lib Dem, Green or CUK-TIG. I just need to work out what is the best way not to split the remain vote. Hopefully there'll be some guidance at some point on how to cast your vote to maximise remain candidate's chances?

The only leavers I know who will even speak to me about this stuff any more have said they're boycotting. I hope they're representative of leavers generally...

Morning all. Happy Easter holidays!

Although having read the OP now I'm not so happy. What's this shit from Barclay about no deal at the end of May? Seems to me they are trying to circumnavigate the extension.
As ever, nothing is certain, and my stomach has fresh knots. Shouldn't have decimated the Crunchie stash last night

If there is a People's Vote how would that potentially fit in with the key dates set out by Red. I can't see an obvious time slot especially with all the likely bun fighting over the question

Going to be spending the day in the garden rather than watching Sky

Will finally be able to plant out my potatoes (which have been chitting for ages) as dh is in the process of finishing off the repair to the raised bed (one of the wooden sides was rotten). I've also got broad beans started in loo rolls to out into that half of the bed (I'd planted broad beans direct into the other half of the bed a few weeks ago). I'll put fleece on top to protect against late frosts and the cats

I wonder if the predicted melt down of the Tory vote in Local Elections will precipitate the long overdue split in the party?

Place cat king with an old photo of ElementCat (the old girl looks more dishevelled and matronly these days).

Just wanted to at the news of the pro-EU parties refusing to cooperate. I said as much to DH yesterday when we were discussing the European elections, and so it came to pass.

I hope they're representative of leavers generally...

If someone doesn't believe in the European Union is it right to stand as a candidate to represent it (and take money for doing so)?

A logical extrapolation of that is that it seems appropriate not to vote if you are opposed to it.

So boycotting does make logical sense from a Leave standpoint.

"Texiters™️"

Or Toxiters?

prettybird A splendid day for gardening - got my chitted totties planted a couple of days ago, looking forward to super fresh spuds in a couple of months. I must get the dwarf Runner seeds sown into pots, now you mention beans! We had a frost a couple of night ago and it's only 2'C as I write!

Every week I hope the Brexit possibilities will narrow down but they seem to get wider and more tortuous as the weeks go by! I do think the Local Elections will be fascinating and bound to show Tory (and maybe Labour) dissatisfaction.

I don't see any incentive for anyone to pass the WA now because as prev outlined holding out for EU elections and the Tories getting a drubbing courtesy of NF is how the ERG win.

I agree with others that Labour have nothing to lose from tacking towards Remain atm - the Tories already hold 60% of the votes in the local elections against the Labour 20% and so have a lot more to lose. In the EU elections Labour lost almost all of its Northern heartland seats to UKIP in 2014 already and so can only improve - (one of the reasons why UKIP "won" the election).

Before deciding on tactics it is worth looking at where the votes fell in your EU constituency last time.

eg. Labour won 4 out of 8 of the London seats on a 35% vote share. In the 2017 election they polled 55% in London and on that basis could gain one of the Conservative seats. The Greens have a seat which they will probably hold but it would be difficult to add another. It would be possible for LibDem to gain from Conservative Remain defectors here but questionable if there would be enough of them (even in London UKIP almost polled enough for 2 seats in 2014 and it wouldn't take many Tory defectors to NF and co to make that happen)

Otoh If you live in the South East the vote last time was UKIP 4 seats, Conservatives 3 seats, Labour 1 seat, Greens 1 seat, LibDem 1 seat. Labour had the most excess votes making a defection to them from Conservatives the most likely to lead to a gain. Defections to Brexit Party could also hurt Conservatives but unlikely to impact Labour.

I reckon there will pretty much be a straight switch from UKIP to Brexit Party with a good number of Tories joining them so there won't be a split Brexit vote.

I even think Scotland is very probably going to return at least 1 Brexit Party MEP.

Agree with woman on splitting Remain.

TheNorthWestPawsage and TheElementsSong for your charming kitty pics.

Bercowssilktie - IF they can get the WA passed before the EU elections, then we don't need to hold the elections as we will then formally be leaving at the end of that month.

How to piss off all the parties, activists and public bodies organising them and spending money if they're cancelled the day before

Big IF

A lot depends on Corbyn's Lexiter instincts choices

But I'm not sure even if Corbyn were to volte-face, enough of the Labour MPs would actually follow him even if whipped because of their justified concern about the PD, which, however worthy the intents within it (whatever Labour gets put in to it) is still dependent on the future Government and PM and as such is just airy fairy "intentions"

Combined with the ERG who won't vote for "vassalage" and the DUP (whose default is "No" anyway ), the SNP, Plaid and LibDems, I don't see how it would get through yet another MV .....unless it was contingent on a PV, but even there, I don't see the "opposition" agreeing to it passing until after a confirmatory PV.

I'm allotmenting tomorrow, prettybird. My parsnips and broad beans are currently fleeced and I have peas to plant out which are hardened off so don't need covering. And mum's giving me two rhubarb crowns to put in too.

I do love a bit of gardening to soothe the soul!

Thanks again Red hope you enjoy your relatively Brexit-free week.

Whilst aware that we are far from out of the woods I’m allowing myself to feel happy that this morning we are all waking up as EU citizens.

A sponsored ad for The Brexit Party popped up on my Facebook timeline this morning. Didn’t know whether to be horrified or pleased they are spending some of their supposedly targeted ad money so ineffectually.

But I also had this, which is my favourite thing so today

www.facebook.com/www.JOE.co.uk/videos/537388036798161/