Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

So depressing seeing what the world thinks of us on BBC news at Ten

Pmk thanks red

Can I have a week off from Brexit? Actually, I’m tempted to take a few weeks off and pick up again after the local elections. Because I suspect that the 31 October deadline means that the politicians are now focusing on 2 May (or more correctly 3 May since that’s when we’ll know the results).

OublietteBravo, I'm intending to have a relatively Brexit free week by my standards. Parliament is in recess so less is happening that's really significant to the process. We are definitely switching to a campaigning period which whilst important politically doesn't particularly add anything of substance until MPs are back in Westminster.

I'd actually say that it's worth taking a Brexit break now whilst it's quiet to recharge mentally.

I think once we hit the local elections things will get pretty real again, pretty fast.

PMK. Happy Still-In-The-EU-Again-Day to all!

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Pmk

Ta red enjoy the low key brexit wk

Thanks, red 💐

I agree that the start of the new UK Parliament will be a crucial time,
to see whether May can obtain confidence & supply from the DUP or elsewhere,
or at least be allowed to run a minority government without a No Confidence vote

Also, that the risk of No Deal has merely been postponed 6 months

2 main reasons:

1. At least one E27 country might veto,
   because they want an end to the uncertainty and there is still no plan from the Uk side

2. A new PM - and maybe a new HoC - might choose No Deal

A significant danger of a GE is that it could return a working Tory majority,
because of the Corbyn factpr putting off many Labour voters and centrists

It depends on whether the Tories have torn themselves apart by then - especially after disastrous local elections - and look too obviously disfunctional

Also, FPTP would probably eliminate almost all the Tiggers, including the ex-Tories

May can by challenged in mid-December
With 160 No Dealers, the likelihood is that her replacement would be one too

Also, the 1922 Committee are considering new rules for a leadership contest:
abolishing the 12 months rule to let her be challenged earlier
and
letting the party membership choose from the last 4 candidates, instead of the current last 2.
Even more likely after a local elections drubbing.

Those changes / gerrybandering would mean the almost certain election of an extreme Brexiter,
probably Boris, who has many other faults too.

so, by EOY we will almost certainly have a new PM who is a hard Brexiter, possibly a batshitter

The question is whether we also have a new HoC prepared to allow them to No Deal** ^

Even if we don't, a No Deal PM - if May is replaced BEFORE 31 October - could actively run down the clock
and refuse to ask for an extension, or (quite legally) refuse the conditiona

Could a new PM refuse to ask for an extension, or would the Cooper Bill still apply?
Of course, even if it applies, it doesn’t say the PM has to accept, does it? I vaguely remember that as one of the things people criticised.

Pmk thanks red. Horseshit I remember reading that the Cooper bill was a one-off and would not apply in future.

In on the ground floor for once.

PMK thanks RED

Thanks Red.
As per a post of mine at the end of the last thread, I looked up procedures for forming and registering a political party. Just remarking on the very clear and well set out guidance from the Electoral Commission - looks like the Campaign for Plain English have had some influence there! I do so approve.

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PMK. Thanks Red. Am currently waiting in A&E as DH stupidly tripped on a work night out & has got a minor head injury. Blood everywhere.

Good morning all. Assuming the UK takes part in the EU elections, a practical question for those living in EU27. I have never voted in EU elections (or indeed any) from abroad before. I assume one doesn't need to travel back to UK to go to polling station, but then how do I do this? Do I need to register somewhere online? Which 'constituency' do UK nationals in EU27 vote in? I'm aware that the deadline to register in fast approaching (the 21st of April) and I really really don't want to miss out on this. Any help appreciated.

The danish websites I've visited are assuming the UK will not be taking part... I'm going crazy with worry over this. If the UK MEPs don't participate I can register in DK but I'd really rather vote for UK MEPs. I feel like I'm playing chicken, not wanting to leave it too late to registering DK but wanting to wait and wait and wait to see in UK participates.

As an aside - Brexit has caused so much worry for me I think it's taken years off my life.

Thanks Red.

My kitty representing what I'd like to be doing this summer - enjoying the sun and not worrying about Brexit. Or perhaps this is the ultimate cat attitude to Brexit - IGNORE IT.

You vote in your country of residence for MEPs. I have a voting card from our Mairie which I can use in EU and local council elections only. In the event of Brexit I won't have a vote at all.

Hope your DH has been patched up AwdBovril [flower] [tea]

I was discussing with dh how the situation could be resolved and we can't predict what will happen, apart from more can kicking. What a mess.

Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
Here is what we can see about what has happened to our economy since we voted for Brexit (chart from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility).

This is nuts. Like some collective UK wide breakdown of reasoning.

Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
Here is the Government's own Long Term Economic Analysis of different models of Brexit (November 2018)

Could another election return a working Tory majority? Is the anti-Corbyn factor so strong? It proved not to be a liability last time - the Labour party had sufficient other policies in its Manifesto to make it look attractive. Some are unlikely to work next time i.e. student fees, others - renationalisation of the railways, (can't remember the rest) would still be worth hanging on to.

Going back to the Sky report posted late last night: they only went to strong Leave areas - Essex and North Yorkshire for the Tories, and South Yorkshire for Labour. What about going to those areas which are Remain strongholds? We have been ignored now for the better part of three years, but as our marches and petition shows, we haven't gone away, and will be much more likely to turn out for elections. What is the feeling on the ground from us? Homelessness politically for Tory and Labour voters, but there are likely to be anti-Brexit candidates in many areas who might pick up a vote, and it's only for a few years if they prove themselves duds as councillors.

As to the Leave areas - a lot of anger on the doorsteps but how many will take it further? Farage for all his bluster, couldn't get a million out on the street. It's noticeable how quickly opinions can change - far from most being unequivocal and blaming Theresa May and wanting her to go. "It isn't just six weeks of incompetence, it's two and a half years.", this most definitely was not the narrative for the first year of May's premiership. At the 2016 Conference the Tories lapped up the "citizens of nowhere" stuff - couldn't get enough of it, and then considered that she was doing a good job. It was only after the botched election that they began to have doubts.

Well, we shall see.