Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

Morning, and thank you red

Actually Danetobe on checking the Europa site it does suggest that you can have a choice of where to vote. We have always voted in France for EU elections. We are still registered in our old constituency in the UK (we have a year left of our 15 years), but they have never contacted us about EU elections. For UK elections and the referendum we used our DD as a proxy voter.

Can I ask a rather dim question (like all my other questions!)

We moved house Dec 2017 and are paying council tax etc.

Do I need to do anything to register to vote in local and EU elections or will it be automatic???

Fusion, it isn't automatic , you need to register on the electoral register at the address you are at now. If you go to your local council website there will be a way of checking if you are registered and instructions on how to register if you are not

If you are in the UK and have registered to vote, you will be covered for all the elections.

If you have not registered yet, the you need to do so by 7 May for the EU elections. It explains it on this page (there is a link for EU voters) -

www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Loads of young people have not yet registered so spread the word.

You should have also registered to vote, though last year you'd have got the form which told you who was registered at your address. I'd assume that if you hadn't registered when you moved, that would have reminded you to.

However, if it didn't, then you go here: www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Yesterday was the deadline for the locals, so you've missed that if you aren't registered.

Posted this at the end of the last thread - foster children need to be granted British citizenship or risk not having paperwork post Brexit.

People really can't imagine what they are setting themselves up for, can they?

I doubt much will happen until after may 2nd tbh.
Then there will be either a leadership bid and ousting of May or a GE/PV - or both?

I am gobsmacked that people aren't registered to vote. This isn't the US where celebs always campaign about it because voter registration is a problem there.
It's, as far as I know, illegal not to be on the register here. You struggle to get any credit card or loan arrangement without being on the register. I recognise that students can have an issue if they live away from home but isn't it one of those things on your new home ticklist like sorting out a doctor to be registered with.
Surely our problem here is people not being arsed to vote.

Lets just hope leavers keep their word (ha!!) And don't bother to vote

Were you registered at your old address? You could still vote there, if so, although it might not be convenient to do so.

@FusionChefGeoff , didn't you get a thing through the post checking who was living at the property? You do a confirm thing- in our area it is a two part code thing done via phone.

Just on the expired passport thread - a prime example of how not ready we were for No Deal.

I do a lot of lurking on these threads and love how informative they are. I do now have a question.

Who / which party says that 80% of voting was for a Brexit supporting party?

It really stuck in my craw because i voted for my candidate because she is clearly and unambiguously anti Brexit. But she is also a Labour MP. When i voted for her i emailed her saying i voted for her and her anti Brexit stance and NOT for JC. Then I hear the 80 % nonsense and despair.

BUT if its only the Tories saying that, is it that they want to encourage Labour voters to move away from Labour (as 70% of Labour voters are anti Brexit), as they know this 80% thing will provoke a reaction for anti Brexit Labour supporters to move to the Greens or so. And so the Tories bring Labour down with them.

lambuffy I agree the Tories are just trying to hold it together until after the Local elections. However since by then the EU Elections will be in sight no-one will make a move until after them. If Brexit Party does well then that is grist to the mill for BoJo and co. If Remain vote splits all over the place away from Labour it could also help the Leave Tories.

Trying to think of an outcome which would support a more Remain minded Conservative position and struggling?

I've heard the 80% voted for Brexit supporting party trotted out by both Tories and Lexiters. While it may be true that both Labour and Tory supported Brexit of some form in their manifesto, it's too much of a jump IMO to assume that all people voted for them because of that one policy. Others would be voting for more money for the NHS, or more money for schools or.......

And besides which - neither party actually won, don't forget.

I’ve been lurking on these threads for a while now. Haven’t felt in a position to join in though as tbh, I’m as confused as fuck A massive hats off to all though as I have slightly more of an understanding than I used to!

Anyway, am posting for DaneToBe to say that if you do end up voting in DK, did you know there’s an event on Tuesday where the Danish MEP’s introduce themselves in English? (In Copenhagen).

billetto.dk/e/european-elections-meet-the-candidates-billetter-346865

Dane you need to register to vote as an overseas voter PDQ. You can just use the normal website to register in the place you were last resident in the UK and arrange for either a postal or a proxy vote (if you know anyone living in that constituency still who would be able to vote on your behalf). It’s fine to be registered here and in your country of residence, what you can’t do of course is vote twice in the same election. This way you get the option come polling day.

Yes I agree the 80% stat IS a load of crap but it could be a very influential tool, namely people / voters determined to show they arent in this 80% stat, so stop voting labour and start voting another party. This move would benefit the Tories far more than Labour.

Fusion unless you actively did something to register(filled in the website or returned a form sent to your house) since you moved then it’s likely you won’t be registered. Paying council tax does not automatically register you to vote. However if you’ve been doing this since 217 it’s likely the council would have sent you a letter asking you to register at some point.

Have you recently received a poll card for the local elections? This should happen soon if you are registered.

namely people / voters determined to show they arent in this 80% stat, so stop voting labour and start voting another party

Single Remain Coalition candidates are essential for each area. Pragmatism is the only way to win this one.

Agree the 80% stat is bollocks. I voted for labour because at the moment they are basically the lesser of two evils IMO, who else was I supposed to vote for in my CON/LAB swing constituency? Sigh.

Pro-EU parties, including the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the Independent Group, will not form pacts or alliances at the forthcoming EU elections, hoping to use the poll as a “soft referendum” to show a surge in support for remain

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/13/pro-eu-parties-to-use-european-elections-as-soft-referendum

Snatching defeat etc....

I've started nagging reminding ds that he needs to put himself onto the electoral register in Aberdeen or (given he will be moving out Uni accommodation in June and taking on a lease for a flat but not living there until August ) organising a postal or proxy vote for down here. It's all the same constituency for the EU elections so it's not a big deal - just depends which bit of "bureaucracy" he wants to deal with.