Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

After the EP elections, watch the hypocrisy of the Conservatives (and some Labour ) continuing to trot out the "justification" for Brexit that over 80% voted for Brexit supporting parties in the GE despite the fact that neither of them "won" while ignoring the inconvenient fact that a majority will probably have voted for Remain supporting parties, even if that isn't reflected into seats.

To force politicians to change, we have to win the votes that count: elections

pretty If Farage's party wins the most EP seats, then that will be claimed as a vote for No Deal
If Brexit+UKIP+Tory win over 50% of seats, then that will be claimed as a vote for hard Brexit

Noone will care if Remain wins the majority of votes

Notice to leave cancelled for family in France.
www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/Ministry-asks-prefecture-to-cancel-order-for-British-family-to-leave-France

SInce the Remain parties won't work together, we need a central Remain advice / calculator site,

to help Remain voters in each region decide which party to vote for to deprive Farage of a seat and which Remain party is a wasted vote

This website www.remainvoter.com is supposed to do just that

As I'm in Scotland, I don't need it

Open Britain would be the obvious people to do this. Perhaps with help from People’s Vote (though that might displease some Tiggers - or, conceivably, let them off the hook).

Thanks for that link prettybird!

I agree with you BigChoc about how the media and politicians will present a Brexit win - " points seats mean prizes" (to misquote Clue) I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy that they will use one measure for "support" in one election and another one in a different election

while ignoring the inconvenient fact that a majority will probably have voted for Remain supporting parties, even if that isn't reflected into seats.

Yes, and no. UKIP wasn't winning seats in GEs but the Tories especially, and to some extent Labour, were running scared of them.

To force politicians to change, we have to win the votes that count: elections

This reminds me of one of our local elections a few years back, where one party had posters out all over the show, but didn't win the seats they wanted. Some bright spark opined "we won the poster war". A fat lot of good that was, I thought, it's the crosses in the box which count.

Doesn't matter if the official Leave party (I refuse to name check either it or its leader) has or hasn't got the other parties running scared: once the Leavers have achieved their objective of leaving the EU, they've won It's a one way ticket

They don't care about the impact on the country or how to plan for the future . In fact, even the more intelligent of Leave voters that frequent these boards (at least they try to put forward arguments) downplay all projections on the basis that "projections aren't fact"

To quote Tusk again, i wonder what special place in Hell there is for those that promoted Brexit without even the sketch of a plan

Two boys 18& 19 have been arrested for the shooting of Lyra McKee - so young and so angry

Bill Clinton tweeted
“Heartbroken by the murder of Lyra McKee and the violence in Derry. The challenges in NI today are real – but we cannot let go of the last 21 years of hard-won peace and progress. This tragedy is a reminder of how much everyone has to lose if we do.”

LonelyTiredandLow
They are not 'boys'.
Boys are the 9, 10 and 11 year olds that are recruited by the Lords Resistance Army in Northern Uganda and neighbouring countries that are given automatic rifles and knives and are coerced into murdering their own parents and other family members.
Reading on MN about mothers worried about their children of 12 or 13 years old catching the public bus to school or to see their mates, they are literally on the wrong planet.

Maybe Labour has the best chance of getting seats on 23rd May. It's just their policy is as yet unclear re the EU. I'm still not happy to vote for them.

I've emailed Labour to ask them to clarify their policy and suggest they could sweep up the 48% - and more - Remain voters if they had a policy of Re-Vote/Remain/Revoke or Refresh (the referendum mandate).

Also said people who voted Labour in 2017 are fed up being lumped in with the 80% who voted for Brexit. And regret it. Don't want to regret voting for them again.

Wonder what good it'll do?

action.labour.org.uk/page/s/policy-contact-form

Do the parties have manifestos for the EUs?

1tis - I know they aren't strictly boys but teenagers nonetheless. In no way am I using that as justification for their actions!

Bray is standing for EP elections too!.

Photo

New Thread

^When Remainers obsess about the unfairness of the last vote, they turn off most voters who aren't in the bubblegum
That's not how to win votes

Just personal experience but I know one person who voted Remain but who disagreed with a PV on the grounds Leave had won a fair, democratic vote. Said he would abstain or vote Leave in another referendum. After I shared all the information about Leave.eu tactics and malpractice he changed his mind and would now vote Remain again. Another friend voted Leave after being undecided right up until the vote. Would now vote Remain based on the revelations about the Leave campaign.

I won’t think change firmly entrenched views but has been a factor for some waiverers.

Sorry - obv should have read I don’t think it will change firmly entrenched views.

Gloria De Piero tweet. You can imagine the responses.

Thanks for those asking about me. I don’t want to derail the thread but things have been totally shit to be honest.
I’m living in a B&B where I’m the only woman.
I had a relapse and collapsed in a local park and have a massive head injury and was found completely unconscious. I spent a week in hospital with alcohol withdrawal which was the most hideous thing I have ever been through- I was having horrific hallucinations of people having their heads cut off and babies being eaten by rats. I also had quite a few seizures.
I haven’t seen my children for 3 weeks.
But I’m still here and, the way I see it, things can only get better.
The one positive thing is that I haven’t had time to think about Brexit.
Thanks for your concern. It really does mean a lot xx

Sorry to hear that.

Sounds horrific. Hope you're ok.

Plums

Hope you are getting decent support. It sounds like you have been through a horrific time.

I can't even begin to imagine how awful that must have been (and is) PCPlums - but I am in awe (in a non pressuring way ) at your strength and ability to see a positive in your situation

Thanks. I’m a fighter at heart. I’ve run 3 marathons and that was a total breeze compared to what I have been through over the last year.
But, in the words of Gloria Gaynor, ‘I will survive’
These threads have been an absolute lifeline to me and convinced me that I’m not going insane.
I have real Brexit rage right now and I’m trying to think how to channel it constructively