Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

Thanks prettybird. I was confused about Barclay saying no deal at the end of May as I didn't see how that was possible with us having the extension.
We are off out to a NT place today to enjoy the spring sunshine and a flask of hot chocolate made with my uht milk stash. The cafe there is slower than molasses so there's the added bonus of avoiding the queue. The last couple of times, not even in the height of summer, it took 20 minutes for them to serve 8 people

We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the elections and after, for us and the wider world, according to this post in a Facebook group. A heavy responsibility.

Here’s hoping..

I enjoyed the Farage video but am wary of sharing it in case Leaver's see the last bit as a challenge...

I have purple podded peas (collected from last year's crop - flowers are pretty too) and dwarf Borlotti beans already in modules (only sown this week, so not showing yet). Will do runner beans (collected from last year) and French beans today.

Back directly on topic: MarmotMorning - I think someone on the last thread (or the one before that - they fill up so fast ) said that the Electoral Commission has suggested that it could be possible to hold a PV in as little as 3 months IF (another big IF ) the legislation could get through Parliament very quickly . After all, it's proven it can be done - even against the will of the Government - in a few days if it wants to But somehow I don't see Parliament coalescing around a PV enough for it to be rushed through.

I think that's typical of many NT coffee shops, Bercow. We go to loads of them locally and when we're away and it's a relatively common feature!

The one at Lyme was particularly bad.

We do love visiting NT properties though and make great use of our membership.

Oops image didn’t post!

I think that there are two things going on - one is opposition to Brexit (in which case Remain parties working together would make sense) and the other is the upheaval in UK politics with different parties competing for the middle ground, in which case the EU elections are likely to give the most accurate indication of where the Remain vote lies, in which case it makes sense to compete. Previously LD and Green were the only alternatives but both are tainted. There are many people from both centre left and centre right who won’t vote LD, leftists because of the Coalition and rightists because they perceive them as weakened and a wasted vote. Both parties are factionalised particularly around gender issues and many people won’t vote Green because they are still perceived as a single issue party, as in reality they are. TIG probably hope to hoover up the people who have bailed out of the two big parties and who genuinely think that this could bring about a realignment in UK politics. This is really my reasoning for supporting TIG, though I’m still not sure if they’re as promising as I first thought.

I also feel that if EU elections are held, committed Tory and Labour Leave voters will stay away, and the fight will be between the two Brexit supporting parties and the three Remain parties. Green voters will stay Green. Disillusioned LDs may jump ship, and Tory and Labour Remainers may vote TIG/CUK.

The beauty of the Euro-Elections is that it is a PR closed list system, so you vote for whoever you like and your vote is worth the same as anyone else's.

Watching the ChangeyTiggers with interest. Worried about the English Greens wacky continental chums in some cases, and still angry with Libs for bedroom tax etc. But will deffo vote for an ever so Remainey Remaning Remainer.

Bercow if you are ever round Glasgow way I can highly recommend the NT cafe in Pollok House. It is not slow and the food is lovely but a wee bit on the posh side for small DC. Also has a lovely outdoor courtyard.

The best thing, which not everyone seems to know, is that you can access it via the House entrance even if you are not a NT member - much needed as the also fab cafe at the Burrell is closed atm (I nearly always have Cullen Skink).

Mockers it is a common misconception that all votes count in closed list PR. Vote splitting to small parties = loads of votes thrown down the toilet. In 2014 the LibDems did even worse in the EU elections on a seat basis than in the 2015 GE relative to their vote share.

I will have to hold my nose and vote LibDem in the local elections.
I hope there will be a ChangeUk option for Euro elections.
NB. You have to register SEPARATELY for Euro elections. I didn't know this, so thank you PPs. This thread has helped me realise so much stuff. I'm on the electoral roll and received my polling card for the local elections a while back, but it seems I still have to download and fill in another form for Euro elections.

Marking my place with a sleepy doggo

I've been investigating my regions MEPs 4 Brexit, 1 remain. I found out one of the Brexiteers is standing as the PCC in Leicestershire so I assume won't be running again???

Here's hoping most Leavers have sorted themselves out with new jobs, as they thought we'd be gone by now, so won't be able to stand this time!

Why do you have to fill in another form for the EU elections unless you are moving house?. You are on the electoral roll at a particular residence. That's it.

Here's hoping most Leavers have sorted themselves out with new jobs, as they thought we'd be gone by now, so won't be able to stand this time!

This is precisely why I don't think there will be a UKIP / Brexit Party vote split. NF and Richard Tice reckon the Brexit Party has a full slate of 70 (presumably not standing in NI) chosen from a list of over 1,000 applicants. I also assume he had no need to go fishing in the tainted UKIP pond.

Anyone know what Paul Nuttal and Gerrard Batten are up to?

bellinisurge that's what I thought but apparently not

It's eu27 nationals wishing to vote in the UK rather than their country of origin who need to fill in another form afaik.

Local council elections in my city will be more boring than normal because the anti cuts protest party got the candidate closing date wrong and delivered all of their papers a day late
snigger

NB. You have to register SEPARATELY for Euro elections.

Not if you are a British citizen - only if you’re an EU citizen resident here (there is a list of the appropriate EU nationalities on the form)

My EU constituency (East) is interesting. Last time around: 3 UKIP (now 1 UKIP, 1 Briexit Party, 1 SDP), 3 Conservative, 1 Labour.

Greens closer to getting an MEP than LibDems.

Ah ok, thanks for clarification!
I've realised where my misunderstanding has come from: I automatically thought of myself as an EU citizen.

NB. You have to register SEPARATELY for Euro elections. I didn't know this, so thank you PPs.

Not if you are British, Irish, Maltese or a Cypriot.

Have emailed my MP (Labour) explaining that remainers have been angered by their '80% of people voted for Brexit' line, despite many of us voting for remain candidates. I have asked for clarification on this as if none is provided Labour will be loosing votes to more clearly pro-remain parties so that the data cannot be muddied in this way for the future.

I am sure she knows all of this but we have seen what glaringly obvious blind spots the parties seem to have, so it can't hurt!

Hester We know!

This 80% bollocks is one of the reasons I couldn't hold my nose and vote Labour last time in the GE. I spoiled my ballot paper.

There is a serious local planning issue here which Labour are on the wrong side of in local elections. So no nose holding in that.

Under no circumstances would I vote for any of the pro Brexit parties in the European elections.