Westminstenders: Compromise is a difficult word

[RedToothBrush]

Today the HoC had a water leak. It closed the house for the day. This isn't without consequence; any hope for the opportunity of Indicative Votes on Monday had cold water poured on it.

Meanwhile talks between talks between May and Corbyn were about as productive as you'd imagine. But apparently they had nice tea and biscuits.

The Cooper Bill, the last minute lock on May getting a extension to prevent no deal, has been in the Lords today. I say it's been in the Lords but Tories have filibuster Ed on procedure for over 6 hours to prevent the chance of it passing the house. Tory whips are timetabled until 6am but the opposition benches have vowed to go to 7.30am. So far the votes to ruin the procedure have failed comfortably so the opposition have the number. Its just a question of time.

The trouble is with the Lords not sitting tomorrow that means the bill won't get passed until Monday and there are fears it won't get royal assent until Tuesday.

The bill doesn't prevent accidental no deal but it would be a barrier to May.

It therefore looks like May's gambit with the EU to get an extension is to say her plan is ongoing talks with Labour for a cross party solution. It won't wash.

No deal looks more and more likely.

Lonely
I've never been !
DS went with school and DD went with Erasmus friends
but DH and I would love to go to the wild bits in the South

and yes, not having anything booked is doing my head in.

If May goes there with no plan and not having legislated for EP elections, we are most unlikely to get an extension
Wishful thinking and slagging off Macron wont help that

He has however said there could be a 2-week extension, merely to let the financial markets avoid a meltdown.
So if we get that, I expect it'll be spun as having given in again.

Let's stop this ridiculous - previously ERG / Brexiter - delusion that Merkel "just has a word" with the #2 power in the EU and then Macron does as he's told

If the UK crashes out, the EU will not stop exporting food to the UK and the UK will not block the food
There will just be shortages of some foods and prices will go up

UK exports will be hammered and any meat products will be stopped, possibly immediately
Sterling and the trade deficit will suffer badly

The UK will be presented again with the WA, at least the 3 main elements - backstop, exit bill, expats - and the EU will not start negotiations on any deal or mini-deal until ththe UK has approved this.

This may take months, so there is danger that stocks of some medicines run out

I must admit that the supply chain stuff was one of my strongest reasons for voting Remain.
Having worked in Dover Customs Clearance it was PAINFULLY obvious to me that the EU would not blink on the Single Market

I think a lot of us had our own reasons for voting remain - our own areas of expertise. Supply chain was one of my reasons too, though from a different perspective (I have no customs expertise but I work for a company which relies on and is part of JIT supply chains).

Most of us, even if we are quite informed generally, only have expertise in a small part of this. I remember watching a sitting of the NI select committee just after the ref, when two trade and customs law experts gave evidence, and I was basically stunned at how ignorant I was (and also at how useless the MPs were - many of them found it too hard and weren't really interested in learning).

howabout The elderly also voted heavily for Leave, whereas the young were for Remain
Were these elderly - whom you seem to think entitled - knowingly voting against their own interests ?

I wonder what the chances of a General Election on 23rd May alongside the EP elections are ?

Happy birthday pretty

Indeed,
I knew that the GFA had stopped the bombings but not much more.
In fact until I drove across the Irish Border last November the reality of that issue did not truly hit home.

and sadly a lot of low information voters will only believe the problem once we have crashed out and the shelves empty for a few weeks
I include several of the 650 in that group

Happy Birthday pretty have a wonderful day!

Definite sea change - a lot of Brexiteer bollocks appears to be openly called out now ...

I wonder what the chances of a General Election on 23rd May alongside the EP elections are ?

Quite low I'd say but I do think there will need to be one after either a no-deal Brexit or a new referendum.

The only way the UK doesn't have an early GE is if there is a long extension involving repeated can-kicking, in which case the Tories will want to put it off for as long as they can in the vague hope that a unicorn shows up.

Mistigri is right on all counts.

Macron has his various faults, most of which were clearly apparent in the run-up to the election, but he does not posture. He has occasional unguarded moments, when he says some seriously worrying things, but he is a canny mover and speaker in general.

He is determinedly pro-European and keenly aware, following the election results which saw him face Le Pen, of the very real risks of the far-right gaining power in Europe.
Fortunately, that election battle led to Le Pen having to actually try and explain her manifesto and its vacuity was revealed to all, as was her fundamental unpleasantness.
France has a lot of its own problems to deal with, many of which (including an increasing paucity of politicians with talent) are similar to the UK's. The areas in Northern France that will be worst affected by Brexit really don't need the economic damage it will cause.

Macron knows that the gutter press in the UK will blame France whatever happens, as French people are acutely aware of how vile and insulting such headlines and articles frequently are about them. He has little to lose on that score and knows it.

I lecture in an English Studies department in a big French university. Many of my colleagues would term themselves 'Anglophiles' and have always loved British culture, literature, cinema, style, humour, etc. and have tried to convey that to their students. Many were horrified by the referendum result as they had seen the UK as an open-minded country, which on certain levels seemed to have dealt better with its colonial past than France. Now they are either openly aghast at the sheer incompetence of UK politicians or just bored and a bit embarrassed by it.

I might move to Glasgow if it declares itself an independent republic in the spirit of John Maclean.

DGR
But that is Private Eye (just finished reading my copy)
they have been calling it for ages

I saw this tweet yesterday and thought it rather interesting

Anon @ hypermodel
^A Briton born in 1945 who died at 65 would with lived through only c.4 years without a single-party majority govt., but one who died in 1945 at 65 would have lived c.49 of those years without one.
Building consensus across parties was the tradition until relatively recently.^

Also:

Sunder Katwala @ sundersays
The most important issues in British political history have ended up being settled across parties. Here is a quick thread of 5 of the most consequential. But I may be forgetting others of similar importance.

First place, most important decision ever taken by a British govt. A cross-party vote in War Cabinet, not Commons.

May 1940: Clement Attlee & Arthur Greenwood back Churchill in a 3-2 vote against Halifax & Chamberlain to reject Mussolini's offer to mediate peace with Hitler.

^(2) British entry to Europe/EEC
(White paper, Oct 1971 on principle of entry)^

Heath has majority of 30, so15 rebels can wipe it out.

^39 of his own MPs vote against

69 Labour MPs vote for the government (against a 3-line whip) and 20 abstain^

Government majority 112

(3) Repeal of the Corn Laws, 1846

106 Conservative MPs vote with Prime Minister Robert Peel, 222 vote against him, on third reading.

Wins 327 to 229 (majority 98) with Whig votes

But loses an Irish coercion bill and resigns. His party out of office for a generation.

(4) The Parliament Act 1911

The two neck-and-neck 1910 elections wipe out Liberal landslide of 1906, so government needs Labour and Irish votes in the Commons and (finally) grudging Tory 'hedger' votes in House of Lords to finally remove the absolute veto of the upper house

(5), perhaps most controversially, the 1931 budget

Ramsay MacDonald's Cabinet is split 11-9 on the budget, and submits its resignation. He then forms a National Government with Conservatives and Liberals.

They go on to win 554 seats vs 52 for Labour in a snap election.

Then

The 1867 Reform Act belongs on this list.
t.co/vpLYIiHzOW

Though the analogy with Disraeli's 1867 role on the franchise would be ERG bringing down Theresa May before David Davis or Michael Gove adopted a much softer Brexit than Chequers, with votes across the House!

Iraq 2003 almost belongs on this list. Required at least opposition abstentions to carry.

Which is all pretty interesting history.

"The UK will be presented again with the WA, at least the 3 main elements - backstop, exit bill, expats - and the EU will not start negotiations on any deal or mini-deal until the UK has approved this. This may take months, so there is danger that stocks of some medicines run out."

In the event of a no-deal exit I anticipate the UK will approve the WA and PD within days and some form of transitional arrangements will be agreed. It's possible that this scenario is what May is now playing for.

Mark Di Stefano@MarkDiStef

New from me:
As Facebook and YouTube crackdown on Tommy Robinson,
little attention is being paid to the San Francisco-based start up facilitating payments to Robinson’s network of supporters and hyperpartisan news websites...
.....
BuzzFeedd@BuzzFeed*

Tommy Robinson Is Now Reliant On This US Crowdfunding Platform
....
https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/heres-how-the-british-far-right-is-relying-on-a-us?%3Fbftw&utm_term=4ldqpfp%234ldqpfp

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

UK officially ready for a 'no deal #Brexit! Yay!
But then what?

Ruh-oh, we'll still need a deal.
Just one that we do from our knees, with no legal roof over our head.

So looking forward to Prime Minister Raab smashing that one out of the park.
.....
Dominic Raab@DominicRaab

Good explanation by ex- No Deal Minister Chris Heaton-Harris ⁦*@chhcalling*⁩ on contingency plans for No Deal - an antidote to some of the scaremongering.

Forget the 'end is nigh' scaremongering – Britain is officially ready for no deal
< 🤦🏻‍♀️ >

"Britain is ready for no deal"
Yeah right.
They may have written briefing papers and signed NDAs and given Civil Servants counselling
but once the supermarket shelves start to empty if Brexit is Friday, it will be by the Monday
all bets are off

Not being an international lawyer, I'm not ashamed to wonder out loud if the "EU-less" passports would be valid at the moment, seeing as the UK is still a member of the EU ?

It's a mark of the incompetence I expect of this government that it's a serious question.

(Part of me loves the idea of a true-blue Leaver proudly popping off to France to "stick it to Pierre", only to be turned away as "Your passport is not valid" ....)

DD has just come back from town and who did she see? Only our Davey C, strolling through, enjoying the sunshine on his holiday by the sea. She resisted the temptation to shout something rude apparently, but (her words) 'a little bit of sick did come up'.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3552468-Westminstenders-The-Schlong-Extension?watched=1

New thread, with my assessment of the Macron position and the chances of leaving the EU on the 12th April.

I hope DD had a thorough brain bleach after that encounter, belles

Not a sight you want to see, on a nice sunny day out

Youcantscaremeihavechildren as they would say in Galway, "you're grand" . Context is everything and I get what you're saying. I suppose though that could be true of any place where people settle down. It all boils down, I suppose, to what we want and for me and Italian dh, that contentment and work life balance in Galway is very attractive. It is good for kids as well. Brexit has just brought the pending move closer.

Utterly some of my oldest and closest friends are Polish and highly skilled International Professionals at that. My DD went on cultural exchange to Poland last year. It is obvious to her that it is much much cheaper to buy lettuce in Poland than it is in UK. This is because average disposable income in Poland is lower than in the UK.

Just checked google. Average monthly salary in Poland before tax is 830 Euros. The equivalent for the UK is £1,800.

Talk very illuminating list.
38% more expensive at a UK supermarket doesn't sound that similar tbh.

Thought it was Leavers who were overly touchy when challenged on facts.

woman the West End has changed a LOT. All the student bedsits have been converted back to des res tenement flats and parking is absolutely diabolical. It is still one of my favourite places to take the kids for a day out though. That said, the young and hipster set are all moving on to Finnieston.