Today's vote - when will we know the result?

[WhiskersOnCats]

Just watching parliament and it's like some sort of circus. They're making a show of themselves.

I’ve had to read the WA for work, the whole thing, and it’s the hardest thing to read that I’ve ever read (and I am well used to reading UK acts, regulations and policy). It took me weeks to plod through it and understand it, and I had to do a lot of cross-referencing with opinion articles to try and get a handle on it.

The reason it is so objectionable in some quarters is because it means that Northern Ireland, in the long term, will be held to EU law in order to keep a soft border with the EU. The rest of us theoretically won’t, although that will mean in practice that the UK will have to keep EU law as well anyway to keep things on an even keel across the whole of the UK. And without us being able to have any say in it.

The fact that nobody has been able to come up with a viable alternative speaks volumes.

My prediction - either we will go EEA, subject to the vote on Monday, or failing that we will go down to the wire and it will either be revoke or crash out. The government and parliament have said explicitly in many different ways that crash out is not an option, so it will be revoke in this scenario.

Parliament know this, and so I think one of the softer options will pass through on Monday.

Interesting odds at PaddyPower

www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit

@feesh You're naive I think. You don't seem to have listened to what the EU is saying.

What do you mean Whiskers? I don’t understand

Media coverage is suggesting that the decision on where this goes is in the hands of the UK. It's very much not!

The UK was supposed to leave today. It didn't. It was given an extension to the 12th April if it couldn't pass the agreement, at which point Britain will have to leave. The UK thinks they can now fanny around another while, go back to the EU and they'll be granted a 2 year extension. That will not happen.

Some of the things Paddy Power is offering odds in are in such poor taste. I know bookies are not known for being the upholders of good taste, but offering bets on issues which have historically proven, to lead to a lot of bloodshed is awful.

If I was a gambling woman, it will be a crash out on the 12th April.

But I said above that if it comes to us crashing out, I think we will revoke Article 50. That’s in our power to do that without needing permission from the EU (as per the court ruling from the ECJ).

And it would suit the EU,

So I don’t understand your point,

@Feesh you need to understand that 27 other states now want us to leave! Ireland appears to be the only one not wanting it, as they will be the ones largely affected. I'm not sure how much sway Ireland has at the EU negotiating table.

Considering the EU goes billions from the UK then surely it is in their interests to keep us in or have a deal rather than us crashing out. It is not in their financial interests to have that happen, Uk is one of the biggest contributors to the EU, is it not.

There is not a majority support for revoking it, so get that out of your head.

And I never said in my post that the EU would grant an extension. Because I don’t think they would.

The UK was supposed to leave today. It didn't. It was given an extension to the 12th April if it couldn't pass the agreement, at which point Britain will have to leave. The UK thinks they can now fanny around another while, go back to the EU and they'll be granted a 2 year extension. That will not happen.

^ This worries me. It is well accepted that a longer extension would mean taking part in the next round of elections. However, I sense there will be a fair bit of resistance from the EU, who will not want MEPs from a leaving country having any influence.

I can hardly blame them. If you are working your notice you generally don't get to have insight and influence into the future direction of the job you are leaving.

If they felt sure that it would leave to a 2nd ref and revoke, I think they may be more amenable to it, however convincing them that is a realistic outcome would be tough.

I don't think it's about money anymore.

If EU don't grant extension then UK still has revoke as an option if it wishes to avoid no-deal repercussions.

Parliament have voted against revoke and against a second referendum. So yes, it will be very difficult to convince the EU that something is going to change.

Parliament have voted against revoke.

But I said above that if it comes to us crashing out, I think we will revoke Article 50

Yeah I think this is how it will have to be.

Both are terrible options. They’ll probably be facing civil unrest either way. But they aren’t dumb enough to crash out.

But the IVs are back on Monday where PV is likely to be put to them again. Some members are recommending combining options, i.e. CU with PV etc so that they get their preferred choice of deal but it then goes back to the people.

Monday will be very interesting indeed, given today's result.

They’ve also voted against no deal

It doesn’t mean they won’t take the revoke route when they’re faced with only that or crash out.

However, they are well aware that they are staring down the barrel of this scenario, hence I think they will vote for a soft Brexit on Monday.

Parliament voted against no-deal by a greater majority.

As I said, it's like the UK is just not listening! It's like a group of kids arguing as to whether to join the Brownies. The Brownies meanwhile have taken a decision that they don't want them to join as they're troublesome. But the group thinks they can now go to the Brownie leader and say - Ok - we'll join your group if you do this. Brownie leader is like - ahem - we've told you ten times over that you had an hour to decide on that, and that hour passed 2 days ago - so can you fuck off now please?

Revoke doesn’t need eu permission