Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

onalong- I think we'll get a long extension in order to have either a GE or a PV
I'm sure you're right.

and we're going to win it and stay in.
Not so sure about that. There are already perceptible changes to be seen from the slowing down of free movement. For many people the changes will be positive. The employment news is also good. You'll struggle to spin it negatively to be honest.

PMK.

I think we'll get a long extension in order to have either a GE or a PV

I can't see May offering either to the EU27. So unless she goes, and the replacement quickly agrees to that, it's dead in the water.

Even if there were to be a GE - it's not clear we'd end up in a very different place ... we could still have a hung parliament dithering around till the end of time.

And the problem which still hasn't gone away is what form a PV would take.

The no-confidence motion in May before Christmas is going to be seen as one of those turning point moments isn't it, in the history of Brexit. We are here because of her inflexibility and her lack of strategy. She doesn't look up from the next thing in front of her.

Interesting, @DGRossetti what do you think will happen?

Interesting, @DGRossetti what do you think will happen?

I've pretty much nailed my colours to the "no deal" mast. With an assertion that it was the end game all along. All else is pantomime.

If Bercows ruling came as a shock or upset to the Westminster bubble, it's entirely possible the EU declining to extend A50 could be the next from their side.

New research has highlighted that this weekend is the best day to list your home for sale for the best chance of beating the Brexit blues and finding a buyer.

Thank you! This is reassuring!

We have a buyer. Have a house. Paperwork with solicitors. Mortgage was approved this morning. Just the survey to go and we are good to go.

Massively nervous about timing...

PMK

I honestly can't see TM resigning, calling a GE, calling a PV or revoking. So unless HoC is prepared to actually vote for the WA it really is No Deal - regardless of previously passing a "no to No Deal" motion last week.

.

ico.org.uk/action-weve-taken/enforcement/vote-leave-limited/
Vote Leave Limited

The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) has fined Vote Leave Limited £40,000 for sending out thousands of unsolicited text messages in the run up to the 2016 EU referendum.

This is a new fine BTW.

But surely, surely she wants an extension? And knows she has to have a credible plan in order to get it? Just heard she IS writing to ask for extension (just - got the Tv on). So surely she'll have to either indicate willingness for a PV or GE, deal again won't be enough?

I honestly can't see TM resigning, calling a GE, calling a PV or revoking. So unless HoC is prepared to actually vote for the WA it really is No Deal - regardless of previously passing a "no to No Deal" motion last week.

Another motion of no confidence?!

The Tories can’t do another vote of no confidence, but could Labour?

The irony is, all this Brexit bollocks is confirming exactly what the Leave voters were saying: No one in parliament is giving the real problems the country faces any attention whatsoever. Not really a great boost for democracy - more an advertisement against ....

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
1. Cabinet sources say PM is writing letter to EU today asking for extension - frustration that she is going to ask for end date of June 30th, with proviso of up delay of up to 2 years

2. One source says there was no agreement in the room, another source furious that it seems PM avoiding making an actual decision again about the option she would like to take but wants option of short delay to try to find way of having another go with her deal

3. Leadsom said to 'tear into' colleauges, saying 'this is now a Remain Cabinet, not a Brexit Cabinet' - and argued for leaving without a final deal at end of June

4. Fear lack of decision and general anger might push govt into another confidence vote situation next week and some tories might be so angry they vote against govt or abstain - 'it's last days of Rome' says one insider

5. No 10 said earlier there was a 90 minute discussion at Cabinet, Prime Minister does not want a long delay, and will write to EU leaders before Thursday summit, but we'll have to wait for details

Sigh

If that's true.

European elections...

The Tories can’t do another vote of no confidence

Why not, @sistermichael?

PMK thank you!

Benefit of going for a short extension with ability to extend is May should be able to get it through parliament with the Euro elections tagged on.

The incentive for no deal hating Leavers in to resolve matters before the part 2 extension and the elections kick in.

It's the only way I can see her being able to get the long extension / EP elections through parliament.

As I suspected short extension (followed by long one).

Barclay saying that they will find a way to force another vote. (That can’t go wrong).

Labour won't win a confidence vote. DUP know full well that another GE may well cause them to lose their current power so they won't go for that. And I can't see any Tories voting with labour either. So we are stuck with our current lot unless TM decides she's going.

I hoard things that might come in useful
I found a redtoothbrush
it will be in my button hole on Saturday

Holiday she won the last one so they can’t challenge again til 12 months have passed. That doesn’t apply to Labour though.

The EU may have something to say about the short extension being very obviously inadequate and what is the rationale behind being in an almighty pickle?

On the other hand they won’t want to be accused of keeping us in the EU against our will.

Suspiciously quiet from TM end......