Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

May has said she is not prepared to revoke. As any lawyer will tell you, that doesn't mean she would never do it. It gives her wiggle room to do it if she has to.
That's what we in the business call "fudge."

This makes me so angry. DD is loving her Erasmus year. DS will not get one.
www.theguardian.com/education/2019/mar/19/erasmus-scheme-chaos-uk-students-limbo-funding-accommodation

Have to say I found this article really annoying. When I had my Erasmus year there were loads of students from outside the EU - European and outside Europe. There is no reason why students can't go to Europe and vice versa. Someone is making a mountain out of a molehill. Perhaps they can't use the Erasmus scheme, but I only got about £800 anyway. Not to be sneezed at, especially when you are a poor student, but it wasn't the deciding factor on whether anyone did a year abroad or not.

Helene von Bismarck@HeleneBismarck

Short extension without EP elections, or long extension with EP elections.

Make up your mind.

May has said she is not prepared to revoke. As any lawyer will tell you, that doesn't mean she would never do it. It gives her wiggle room to do it if she has to.

Exactly the same as how I've read it. May was saying she would not revoke unless forced to. She simply wouldn't do it by choice.

The devil is always in the detail though.

ditch that liability Corbyn for a front bencher actually electable

Id love to know who decided Corbyn was un-electable, so far the only people who say he is, are the media, who have a vested interest because he would put Leveson II into effect, the right of the PLP again vested interest and the Tory party, I dont actually disagree as such but its an interesting question to my mind lol

All answers on a SAE to The Kremlin, Russia

PMK

This is all starting to make me feel sick. Since Bercow's intervention my alarm spikes every time i check the news; but i can't stop checking the news.

This is starting to feel as if Brexit won't happen. Or am I going too far ahead of myself?

Corbyn is unelectable... as evidenced by him not winning a general election.

afaik, with Erasmus student accommodation is provided
Then there is the issue of health insurance and the EHIC maybe being no longer valid under No Deal

There is a lot of organisation for families to suddenly undertake if the UK no longer participates in Erasmus and has not replaced the scheme with something similar,

Erasmus, contrary to popular belief, was intended for poorer or average income students,
not those from upper mc families who could afford studying abroad anyway and maybe own homes abroad.

The Uk could have chosen to continue payments as a collaborating external member, like Norway, but didn't

havingtochangeusernameagain
There is no reason why students can't go to Europe and vice versa. Someone is making a mountain out of a molehill. Perhaps they can't use the Erasmus scheme, but I only got about £800 anyway. Not to be sneezed at, especially when you are a poor student, but it wasn't the deciding factor on whether anyone did a year abroad or not.
Absolute bollocks.

I could never have afforded to send DD abroad without the reciprocal agreements on student fees and the £700 a month they get as maintenance grant / loan.
The whole point of the Erasmus scheme is that it allows everybody - not just the rich - to study abroad.

And yes, other countries pay to be part of Erasmus. They pay a lot and have agreements with the EU to facilitate it.

Stating the 'bleedin obvious' but getting anyone with the real interest and ability to put the majority of UK citizens first is the problem.
Neither Corbyn , May or many other 'front runners' fit the job description for a variety of reasons.

I don't think Corbyn is unelectable. I do think there are Labour MPs with broader electoral appeal. Starmer, for instance, is less likely to get the knee jerk "I would never vote Labour with him as leader!" response that Corbyn gets.

I also think that, despite Corbyn's 2017 election result being so, so much better than expected (feared/ hoped, depending on what 'side' you were on), people do have a good point when they ask why Labour isn't powering ahead in the polls given the utter fucking disaster that is the May government. No, he's not a total liability. But is he going to win the next election for Labour? Doubt it. We need someone who could.

I wrote to Yvette Cooper recently expressing my regret that I didn't vote for her to become leader when I had the chance. I can see her in a Starmer led cabinet/ shadow cabinet. There are quite a few people who wouldn't be part of Corbyn's but who would be part of one under a different leader, and who would have a lot to offer.

Corbyn would only be electable after an economic / social disaster - hence his enthusiasm for Brexit.

Many longerm / traditional Labour supporters refuse to vote for him
and centrist voters - which any party needs to win a GE - are repelled by him

Remember that late 1990s, Blair was over 20% ahead in the polls against a John Major govt that looked tired and out of ideas,
... but hadn't committed the major disaster of starting Brexshit & splitting the country, all for party political reasons

Labour should have been 20-30% ahead at least for the last year

Instead, Corbyn often polls worse than May, who is the worst / 2nd worst PM in modern UK history

As things stand my only gripe with Corbyn is the ambiguous stance of the labour party towards Brexit. All else are mere trifles. I suspect there's a few like me.

Bearing in mind I would vote for a Brexit-cancelling Tory over a Brexit-plugging Labour candidate without a moments hesitation.

Corbyn would only be electable after an economic / social disaster - hence his enthusiasm for Brexit.

Yep.

I’m glad to hear he’s feeling ‘tired’ and ‘fed up’. We all are. If he buggered off to his allotment and Starmer took over Labour would shoot up in the polls.

I do hope this Brexshit dies a death for many reasons
Now here's reminder of another:
so British kids like TiP's DS can enjoy the benefits of Erasmus

I think some people are either very rich & privileged, or have no idea how much Erasmus provides:

uni fees, accommodation, 700 quid monthly, plus healthcare no longer automatic ....

Uni in Europe would become a privilege for the UK rich again, not ordinary kids

Instead, Corbyn often polls worse than May, who is the worst / 2nd worst PM in modern UK history

Which is one hell of an achievement! Labour should be powering ahead in the polls, but aren't, and I'm convinced it's Corbyn who's the problem.

While I didn't agree with his politics (though I was also too young to vote; my first GE was '97), Neil Kinnock would have apoplectic for the opposition in the HoC and haranguing TM to get stuff done. JC is too weak an opposition leader to command any support (NK is potentially the wrong choice of opposition leader to choose as he didn't win a GE, but I'm not really old enough to have a memory of previous opposite leaders).

I watched the Bercow statement live yesterday. Quite a piece of history, and oration.

I wonder if he admires Cicero?

Many longerm / traditional Labour supporters refuse to vote for him

Id say the more 'traditional' Labour voter is more likely to vote for him, Nu Labour certainly wasnt traditional Labour to any stretch of the imagination.

my only gripe with Corbyn is the ambiguous stance of the labour party towards Brexit

I totally agree, I keep telling myself that hes just playing the long game and were so used to soundbite politics (doesnt mean I always believe myself either) lol

Corbyn is unelectable... as evidenced by him not winning a general election.

That wouldnt account for the increase in vote share if that was the case

I don't think Corbyn is unelectable. I do think there are Labour MPs with broader electoral appeal.

I def agree with that, I personally dont know who though although I'd quite like them to go in the Laura Pidcock or Angela Rayner direction, both young, vibrant and also women

Instead, Corbyn often polls worse than May, who is the worst / 2nd worst PM in modern UK history

I think that needs to be viewed against a backdrop of massive public disenchantment/dissatisfaction with the current electoral system. It's not fit for purpose, and peoples views can be easily manipulated through a prism with more than 2 sides.

After the 2010 election, I was listening to the radio (so R4) and someone whose name escapes me suggested that the result should not have been such a shock and that if Westminster refused to address the manifestly broken FPTP system, the electorate would condemn them to successive hung parliaments until they got the message. Come 2015 of course and that went the way of the LibDems. But I remembered it in 2017. Also, the increasingly impressive Jess Philips (local lass ) commented last year (RHLSTP) that her sense from the street was that another election - in 2018 or 2019 or 2020 - could not be guaranteed to deliver a majority government (I think Ed Miliband also felt the same ...).

With all eyes on Brexit, it's easy to ignore other non-developments, but all parties have very good cause to be wary of another General Election - particularly out of sequence, and particularly after the polls were so badly read in 2017 (honourable exception for YouGov).

To be uber nerdy, we need a Hari Seldon pour nos jours ....

BigChocFrenzy
Uni in Europe would become a privilege for the UK rich again, not ordinary kids
THIS
But actually that is what the Brexiters want. To look after themselves and screw everybody else.

JC is too weak an opposition leader to command any support

Labour should be powering ahead in the polls, but aren't, and I'm convinced it's Corbyn who's the problem.

I agree with this in part but I wonder if the constant sniping and resignations when they dont get their own way has also helped to make him as or appears to be ineffectual as he seems to some of the wider electorate

I read all the Hari Seldon books at university. That and Cicero. Geek Central, me.

He was godawful in 1983 when he became an MP and has not learned anything since

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Labour spokesman. Sounds like 2nd referendum is not final stop on party's Brexit sequencing. A softer Brexit is instead.

This is a sane approach. But far too little too late. Should have been done a long time ago.