Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

beside not behind ^^

Some good news - unemployment down to 3.9%, the lowest rate in 44 years.

@Holidayshopping Tories are only allowed to challenge their leader once a year. They have already had a challenge in the past year. She is safe till next December.

FAux
Some good news - unemployment down to 3.9%, the lowest rate in 44 years.
Indeed, but as "employed" includes people working one hour per week
and vacancies are at an all time high
I'm taking that data with rather a pinch of salt

On the other hand they won’t want to be accused of keeping us in the EU against our will.

So no extension at all then ? Great. Job done.

Some good news - unemployment down to 3.9%, the lowest rate in 44 years.

I don't trust that figure at all.

Cordelia
I do trust the number because of the way its calculated.

Its the percentage of the population seeking work who are unemployed.
Kids riding two hours a week for deliveroo are not out of work
students are not out of work
the retired are not out of work

UK labour force participation rates are some of the highest in the world
but 10% of NHS posts are unfilled

She just admitted we are in crisis apparently.
Yes she's writing to ask for extension but I reckon it will be an unjustified bald request .i.e. the letter will not address what the EU made clear over a year ago which that a reason is needed.

~She won't give a reason.
~ They'll say No.
~Then its all the EUs fault isn't it.

Expect it isn't.

Surely if the intention is to leave then it doesn't really need an extension.
She can 'bully' whoever is necessary at this side or even just use some of the 'extraordinary' powers.
What is the point of an extension to leave, by which time EU centric activities will have moved so leaving empty buildings in the UK.
I suppose more space for stockpiling for next 'emergency' time.

Some good news - unemployment down to 3.9%, the lowest rate in 44 years.

I'd love to know how many of the employed are underemployed.

I think the reason for extension will that we demand it / are entitled to it.

Join our merry band of protestors here ---> www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3510056-Put-it-to-the-People-March-23rd-March

Just posted on the politics live stream on the Guardian - The Conservative pro-European Phillip Lee has just told the World at One that he thinks there is now more support in the Commons for a second referendum on Brexit than there is for the PM’s deal.

SAHMs are also 'economically inactive' rather than unemployed in most cases, even if (like me) they'd love a job.

talkin, where do they get the number for those who are seeking employment from?

And yet - unemployment is at it's lowest level for years despite us still being in the EU!.

Just curious, but is Erskine a distant relative of Treeza?

For a reason she’ll say ‘Brexit means Brexit’.

Some good news - unemployment down to 3.9%, the lowest rate in 44 years.

Plus it’s often easier to take on a few extra staff short term than to invest long term in fixed assets.

The Conservative pro-European Phillip Lee has just told the World at One that he thinks there is now more support in the Commons for a second referendum on Brexit than there is for the PM’s deal.

Anything to break the deadlock, I guess ?

There is a charming simplicity (so definitely Leaver-friendly) to the symmetry of "a referendum got us into this mess; it will take a referendum to get us out" way forwards.

But then we come to the vexed question of what to ask. Deploying the DGR brain cells away from Leaver taunting for a few moments throws up the idea of a PV without Remain as an option. Or rather, without Remain as an option on the ballot. Instead, the choice is Leave with WA, Leave with no-deal, go back and renegotiate. The outcome need to be supported by a 2/3rds majority across all UK nations. Otherwise we remain. Notice how that cunningly cuts of the argument that Remain get a second chance (despite the fact Leave is) but also puts Leave to the sword to get a real majority, not the toytown 2% of 2016.

I can be contacted via PM, if any strategists want that drawn up into a document for ... oooo £1 billion ?

I think that's genius dg. I don't think two thirds would go for no deal.

{Deploying the DGR brain cells away from Leaver taunting}
Don't take too long then.

Cordeila
The full ONS report is here
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2019
THe UK's unemployment statistics are far more transparent than many
and the ONS is a branch of the civil service so apolitical
and has bollocked the Govt repeatedly for mis using its numbers

Ian Dunt@iandunt
I suspect May will have two more chances to get her deal through. Next week, using A50 extension offer as proof deal has changed. And then again in first two weeks of April, up to the 11th, when legislation needed for European elections.

(I think anything would need to change in the deal between those attempts for them to satisfy Bercow).

After that, once Euro elections happening and we're settled in for long extension, I imagine the pressure will ease and everyone will settle back into standard formations.

After that, once Euro elections happening and we're settled in for long extension, I imagine the pressure will ease and everyone will settle back into standard formations.

No I don't believe Erskine is a relative of Philip (and therefore Theresa).

I'm not sure if the EU would accept a 30 June extension, if the idea is to extend that further

The HoC would need to legislate for EP elections - it would be awkward to hold them at different times to the rest of the EU.
They'd be naive to trust May to get the legislation through, so there might be no 2nd extension.

Philippe Lamberts (Belgian MEP) suggested yesterday a short extension of say one month - so end April - to enable the UK to develop a plan
and then at the end of that period another extension if required.

Does anyone think the HoC & govt could agree a plan when they haven't so far, whether by end April or end June

Or will the EU just keep letting us tag along, half in and half out ?