Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

And thanks @NoWordForFluffy

Actually, I've been doing my area a disservice: we actually voted 72% in favour of Remain

Some of those results are SO close!

This one is a good visual one for info:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-36616028

It shows percentages of population who voted leave or remain and the turnout. Compares age ranges, graduates, older people and various things. Interesting. And very sad and frustrating. NI had a low turnout. I wish everyone had voted, especially the young.

Leeds was a whopping 50.02% for remain ... and I will fiercely defend our remainer status until my dying day!

Anyone else follow James Patrick on Twitter?

Latest tweet
twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1103022984380465152?s=19
Is like many others pretty scary, particularly as I think he's right

Check the headlines out. All about NI.

Bombs and unrest. Particularly if no deal according to FT.

More newspapers

The Telegraph business peddling 'it'll hurt the EU more than it will hurt us'

I was wondering how the Tories were managing to get away with their issues with xenophobia. One party in trouble with anti-semitism, the other with islamaphobia.

Boris on liberal britain: we need to be a police state to stop knife crime.

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/crimes-mps-rise?__twitter_impression=true
There’s Been A Huge Rise In Reported Crimes Against MPs
Exclusive: The team established by the Met Police after Jo Cox’s murder has received four reports of assault occasioning actual bodily harm, four of common assault, 41 of harassment, and 379 complaints of malicious communications.

I was wondering how the Tories were managing to get away with their issues with xenophobia. One party in trouble with anti-semitism, the other with islamaphobia

I should say, there is plenty on this story today and I would have posted about this more extensively but for RL getting in the way atm. Baroness Wars I is being heroic over the issue.
Sayeeda Warsi @sayeedawarsi
Has Andrew Bowles been suspended @BrandonLewis ?
^You told @Channel4News he has been , he says he hasn’t heard from CCHQ
Clarification please^
#DailyDetox
t.co/shKxmIpzjl

And

Sayeeda Warsi @ sayeedawarsi
And please can colleagues stop scoring political points when dealing with this issue.
This is OUR problem for US to resolve - deflecting by referencing their problem that they need to resolve is a bad look & smacks of insincerity
⁦^@JacobReesMogg⁩ ⁦@TomTugendhat⁩^

Re the 3 bombs. I do not believe it was Irish people. I believe its a set up created by someone who really wants to either a)get MPs to vote for WA or b) to stop brexit by threatening trouble in Ireland.
The bomb that went off just caught fire and ( thank goodness) didn't harm anyone as far as I know. They were small, found easily as if they were meant to be found. Gets everyone running around like headless chickens worrying about whether there is going to be big trouble in Ireland. Seems the timing with just a week to go to vote a bit.......just my opinion like, just my opinion.....

Remain in my constituency, always been Tory here too.

The stamps used on bombs were fairly old apparently anyone could buy them and anyone can post from Ireland. Could have been an Irish idea or not.

From a Sky News interview with the boss of Aston Martin, asking about Brexit scaremongering:

"None of the car companies will turn off overnight as there are big investments to make, platforms in the UK, factories, but over a period of time, as the car companies change over to the new cars, those cars will not come to the UK....Nothing to do with fear, everything to do with reality"

Melanie Philips on the Sky Press Review is trying to minimise all the bad car manufacturing news on the basis that the "car industry is facing problems globally anyway".

Indeed, which. Is. Why. The. UK. Shouldn't. Be. Making. It. More. Difficult. To. Do. Business. In. The. UK.

If the industry - any industry - is facing challenges, it will look to make efficiencies and/or retrench to where business processes (which nowadays include JIT) are easier.

Exactly prettybird ! In the face of brutal competition we've decided to go out and get utterly smashed when everybody else is preparing for tomorrow's exams.
Or intentionally breaking a leg before competing in the marathon.

I mean, do we NOT want to be successful?? It truly beats me. What's in it for anyone?

On the knife crime thing, how about we just look after children properly? We fund children's centres, and social workers, and early intervention programmes, and domestic violence programmes, and youth centres, and libraries, and good quality childcare. I would happily pay more tax for these social goods that provide the glue that stick communities together. Austerity has a lot to answer for.

sostenueto your sometimes bizarre and illogical opinions are indulged here more than they would be elsewhere. but nevertheless I am truly sorry about your current desperate situation.

Any regular reader knows @DGRossetti 'S concern is with his wife, not his mother.

.

wherearemychickens evidence based and compassionate governance in Britain, you’re just being ridiculous now everyone knows such policies are anathema to government no matter the tinge of their rosettes

Can’t sleep; interesting article in conservative home suggesting Eurosceptics should support the WA or face no Brexit.
www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/03/henry-newman-wake-up-eurosceptics-your-choice-is-mays-deal-or-no-brexit-at-all.html

Even more interesting comments below the article. It seems that a number of leavers realise that the WA will almost certainly result in backstop being invoked and significant loss of sovereignty on EU controlled policy for a period of time. Only ending at EU’s discretion. Many prefer revoke and try again than to proceed with WA. Not clear how wide this viewpoint is amongst leavers; any leavers care to comment?

pmk