Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

pmk.

Thanks Red
when does the Kyle amendment get voted on (if it gets chosen)? And - assuming it fails - any chance it can come back between MV2 and MV3?

pmk

The Kyle amendment is likely to be the 12th. However the wording means the effect is that its more likely to end up helping the WA pass than enabling a PV.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Times @RSylvesterTimes

Friends of Amber Rudd in major retaliation at Theresa May and Downing Street as tensions rise sharply...

No10 blamed for briefing against work and pensions secretary...

Punchy

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/our-petty-pm-puts-rudd-on-the-naughty-step-bpj3tn2lk

“The attacks are definitely co-ordinated by No 10,” says a supporter of the work and pensions secretary. “They’ve been calling people and dumping on Amber. It’s disappointing.”

A cabinet ally thinks attacks have gone too far. “I’m so furious,” he says. “It’s totally outrageous. You would think that people would realise that now is a time to come together and resolve differences.” Another minister describes the briefings against Ms Rudd as “disgusting”.

I genuinely don't know why anyone would vote Tory now. I mean, I never have, but I get that they had the reputation for being the party of business, managing the economy etc. But nearly 10 years of austerity and Brexit, and they have completely fucked over this country.

Thanks again Red - so the straw I;m clutching to is in fact a broken reed? Damn!

Plaice marking. Thanks red! good luck with move.

Thanks Red.

Thank you so much Red.
I know moving is normally up there with the most stressful of life experiences but.... perhaps this surreal political xxxx* puts a different perspective on everything.

(*insert choice of dysphemism)

Caught the end of Exposure: Brexit Online Uncovered on ITV. Interesting - should have been on earlier. Probably nothing new if you use Twitter but the StandUp4Brexit pair looked particularly unconvincing pretending they didn't notice the violent threats from users of their hashtag. Especially when shown @ messages to them.

PMK

Thanks Red!

Location carpet monarch. Thank you.

Thanks, red 💐

To counter any foolish optimism about Liam Fox's accomplishments, as at the end of the last thread:

Brexit: UK has rolled over just £16bn out of £117bn trade deals

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/13/brexit-uk-trade-deals-eu

Liam Fox has agreed deals with only seven of 69 countries covered by EU arrangements

Found you all again..

PMK.

Thanks, Red.

So, the Kyle Amendment isn't anything worth pinning any hopes on then? Bugger.

Pmk. Bugger indeed.

Yes, it looks like the 1.6 bn quid to Labour Leave areas was indeed a clumsy bung
not agreed with those MPs in advance, which may have backfired,
but ....

A possible way for the WA to pass ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/pm-considers-calls-for-vote-on-future-relationship-with-eu

The prime minister has been told by Labour MPs that a package of greater guarantees for workers after Brexit, due to be unveiled on Wednesday,
is only enough to convince perhaps three or four more to vote for her withdrawal bill.
< so 400-530 million quid per vote >

She was also warned that her offer of £1.6bn to townss^ could have been counterproductive
as Labour MPs considering backing her deal would now be open to accusations that they had been bribed by No 10.

one Labour MP involved in discussions said the key to winning the backing of dozens more MPs representing leave-voting areas was
* the promise of a parliamentary vote on the future relationship with the EU*
< promise would have to be carefully written in an amendment to the bill, so she can't wiggle out >

A Downing Street source said May had promised an increased role for parliament on the political declaration but had not yet set out what this would involve.

Ivan Rogers:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/theresa-may-did-not-understand-eu-when-she-triggered-brexit

“The UK and EU know there is no chance of no-deal Brexitit_ being the long-term end state,*
as the UK would quickly come back to the negotiating table,”

he said. “There is not a world where we are going to end up with no deal.”
....
He also said there was no chance that the UK would be able to disentangle itself from the EU even if Brexit goes ahead.

“These fantasies of release and liberation – they are fantasies.
We are going to be negotiating on everything from aviation to farming for evermore with our biggest neighbour.
We cannot live in glorious isolation.

Talk to the Swiss and to the Norwegians – they live in a permanent state of negotiation with the EU.”

If I were a leave voter, I would for the first time, be worried about delay and possible Revoke. But all the victorious whining Leavers have been doing so far has ruled out most of the sympathy I can muster on that.
I'm still for WA as the least worst version of Leave if we have to leave following the narrow result of an advisory referendum.

In an interview with Sky News, the Japanese Ambassador has again voiced concerns about Brexit.

He says many Japanese companies are seriously questioning whether they have a future in the UK, and have already cut investment.

"These are all global companies and therefore they have other possibilities other than staying," said Mr Tsuruoka.

"They may relocate.
Or they may combine or consolidate.

But you can't make those decisions until you know what's going to happen next. This is very important."

The prime minister has been told by Labour MPs that a package of greater guarantees for workers after Brexit, due to be unveiled on Wednesday,
is only enough to convince perhaps three or four more to vote for her withdrawal bill.So 400-530 million quid per vote

I just want to be an egotistical idiot for a minute because I know I'm more of the political class dunce on the threads ... but ... that's what I said yesterday!

I just couldn't get how it was enforceable. The DUP agreement was enforceable due to being a confidence and supply agreement with a whole party- but what's the Tory sanction if a selection of Labour MPs don't vote as required?

Is there any chance that as well as it instead of being a bungled attempt to purchase MPs voted..it's also a softener to Leave voters as there may be something coming they don't like?

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/04/no-link-between-autism-and-mmr-affirms-major-study

Guardian article on another major study debunking the mmr/autism link. Ends with some suggestions for handling myths in a 'fact resistant' world:
"Omer and Yildirim offered three suggestions. First, any vaccine myth should be clearly labelled as such, they said, calling for headlines on stories not to suggest links that are then dispelled in the text. Second, when correcting incorrect information, scientists should focus on the key facts and not try to answer everything. Third, “an alternative explanation of the perceived phenomenon should be provided”. Otherwise, they added, the chances were the doubter would go back to their previous beliefs."

Feels relevant for contact with the unicorn crew?