Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Has the Pete North story been posted yet? Sorry, it's the Daily Mail (of all places).

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6772425/Outspoken-Brexit-critic-wins-20-000-damages-ex-UKIP-candidate-branded-paedophile.html

Outspoken Brexit critic AC Grayling wins £20,000 damages from ex-UKIP candidate who branded him a paedophile with a 'hard drive full of underage sex videos' in 'vile' tweet.

I remember that tweet. I've screenshotted quite a few of PN's tweets - which were later deleted. I hadn't known PN was an ex-Ukip candidate.

I'm watching C4 - shame it's only really going to be watched by Remainers.

Worth reading the comments following this tweet - lots of significant, intelligent Tweeters - re North.

twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/1102895348157169664

Ed Conway @ edconwaysky
Breaking: UK will cut 80% to 90% of ALL tariffs on imports if Britain leaves the EU without a deal. Would represent biggest unilateral trade liberalisation in British history. More details on the no-deal tariff plan on @skynews tonight

Thanks lonely ( not out of the woods yet) and for your loss along with hugs.

DGR I had to go through two face to face interviews the one for ESA exactly 6 days before I retired when I would not even be eligible for ESA. Assessor took one look at me and said ' you have got to be joking! How on earth are you expected to work?' Shortest interview ever! I feel sorry for the assessors really. Even the PIP assessor couldn't believe I had to go to ESA interview. Glad your DM won't be asked to go to anymore assessments. They can easily do it through a form sent to her GPs.

uh oh re the explosive packages.

Thanks BigChoc. there is no way that increasing those numbers at the borders would be enough, especially not at the tunnel. It jams at the best of times.

Sky News Breaking @ skynewsbreak
Sky News can confirm police in Ireland are assisting Metropolitan Police officers with their investigation after three "small improvised explosive devices" with Irish post stamps were sent to staff buildings at three transport hubs across London

P.s I took my PIP form to a great disabled help organisation DIAL who took 3 hours to fill my form in with me. They put things down I did not think to do so. Even 6 specialists letters were not enough evidence so lucky my Macmillan nurse came to interview in her spare time with me with all my cancer treatment documents, treatment details etc.

Wonder what the new independent party are going to call themselves after their visit to the elections offices?

Not sympathising with people who won't be told that the action they are taking is going to do damage to them is not the same as wishing that misfortune on them. But sometimes, as we all know, people have to learn by their mistakes.

I look forward to the Leavers telling me how the are going to exploit the opportunities that Brexit brings them. It's no good asking Remainers because their remedies would be different and unacceptable.

The only ones to blame for brexit is David Cameron and the dysfunctional Tory party not the people who voted leave. If DC had not ordered a referendum just to keep his party together then there would be none of this.

sos It has to be The Tiggers !

Oh and austerity too!

Got a nice email from Heidi Allen, having sent her an email of encouragement (was sent to her, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston). She says she is excited for the future.

I do think that some Leavers can blame themselves. We are constantly told about how well informed they are, but there are times when I question that. I don't know many Leavers but I do know one who voted on the basis of 'dip, dip, dip, this one is it.' I don't call that informed, I call that pretty stupid. This is someone who doesn't normally bother to vote either.

However it's fair to say that few people thought that May would tackle Brexit the way she has done.

The level of incompetence has been breathtaking, it has to be said!

Saw this on Facebook

Sadly, I live just outside Remainland.

That map reminded me of a map I'd seen before.....

....with the exception of London and the Central belt of Scotland, it maps roughly onto the areas that will still be above water in 2100 with global warming.

No wonder the English are desperate not to allow Scottish independence - they need the land

I'm technically outside Manchester being between there and the midlands isle (but nearer Manchester). My town voted remain.

We're there many places with large percentages of either leave or remain? My town was split 85,000 to remain, 77,000 to leave and a few others have been similar. We're any 80%+ leave or remain does anyone know? Just curious.

68% leave here

Here's the link which gives splits per town.

I'm off to grow some gills: I'd rather live underwater.

My area of Glasgow was 70% Remain it also voted Yes

Oh god, my constituency was actually 52% leave. I'll be casting suspicious looks about tomorrow. The caretaker at school made some comment on the malfunctioning school gates as being like the Eu as you could get in but not out. I replied that I didn't want to get out and he looked at me like I was "one of those" The large town as a whole though was remain. My friends are remainers. Lots of older people (more likely to vote leave?) here but lots of young children of families too with a large population of professionals (whatever that means exactly). Predominantly white. I think 0.4% of the population wasn't white British in 2002. That was the census from 2002 I think.

Waffling now, drugs kicked in. Night night all.