Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Now as long as Brexit doesn't happen end May/beginning of June when I am on holiday in an E.U. country, it'll be fine. Hey, being utterly self interested and having no regard for anyone else is the new Brit.

Pmk - thank you Red

PMK, thanks. Still can't really believe the stupidity of this mess.

PMK, just because!

Pigs Might Kerrang!

Thanks Red, interesting times.

Red, are you channelling ?

That alternative lyric could work. Though the bit where it goes 'comes that day, it's off with his head' is a bit chilling.

PMK thanks @RedToothBrush

PMK and thanks RTB

I think there's a good chance that WA will get through on the 12th, with a myriad of accompanying platitudes that re-iterate what the WA means - that a 'point' of starting the 'exit negotiations' has been reached.

All to be expected, hardly dramatic, nor really replete enough for much description. Just that.

bellinisurge, I am hoping and praying for an extension and that I can move before the next cliff edge. It looks like a narrow window of opportunity.

Otherwise I fear at this rate, I'll be trying to move in the midst of food riots and national shortages. Which will be fun.

I think most of us here will have a personal reason for stressing over the timing of an extension and how that might affect us. Many have delayed plans or avoided booking holidays on the basis of worrying about the 29th March, so that fear carrying on isn't just selfish. Its about feeling like you are losing control of everything again, and your best laid plans being shafted.

For us, its got to the point where we simply couldn't wait any longer and the prospect of an extension wasn't something we could think about any more. Time will tell if it was a huge mistake. We could have waited and then been stuck unable to find a buyer and been stuck here for years more which would be a nightmare. It might all collaspe yet anyway.

My point is, I don't think we have the luxury of planning anything wisely anymore. You've just got to get on and 'do' and hope for the best.

I do hope the 14th March gives us a little more clarification of the situation though.

Thank you Red

Thanks Red. Unbelievable that we have no idea whether we will be in or out of the Eu in 3.5 weeks, and on what terms.

PMK. Thanks red.

Talking about stealing from a school's stockpile at the end of the last thread : one of the things that Susan Aitkin (leader of the SNP minority administration of Glasgow City Council) spoke about at the talk I went to a couple of weeks ago (with Ian Blackford, leader of the SNP in WM) was the Brexit Risk Register for the city

She said just about everything was "Red" - and specifically mentioned school lunches (and breakfasts) She said that there were contingency plans and that pupils wouldn't go hungry, but that choice might be severely limited (don't have my notebook with be at the moment, so can't remember the details of what she said).

Care workers were another "Red" risk.

Roya Pescatarian Persian Rug

PMK

{From The Guardian - “Emmanuel Macron has said France will block a Brexit delay unless there is a “new choice” by Britain, as Spain’s prime minister said that merely postponing the no-deal deadline would not be “reasonable or desirable”.}

Borrowed from another thread.
Business and the EU (and I expect many other countries) would probably look most kindly on the UK if it did just sign up to the WA on 29 March.
It will be a mess but the UK gov is never going to get any real consensus this side of hell freezing over.

My point is, I don't think we have the luxury of planning anything wisely anymore. You've just got to get on and 'do' and hope for the best.

An acceptable and indeed the only option in a time of war, but to believe that the Government is choosing to inflict this on us at a time of peace is beyond words.

RTB are you sure you're posting on the right Board? Given your description of your situation, surely your worries are more aligned to those found on Property/DIY?

For us, its got to the point where we simply couldn't wait any longer and the prospect of an extension wasn't something we could think about any more. Time will tell if it was a huge mistake. We could have waited and then been stuck unable to find a buyer and been stuck here for years more which would be a nightmare. It might all collaspe yet anyway.

The damage the government has been choosing to inflict on its own people for some years in a time of peace has been beyond words. They have seriously damaged any coherent sense of a British identity already. As soon as there is any real outside problem, there's a very real danger of this cold civil war burning hot.

PMK, thanks Red

PMK, with thanks as ever.

www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/axabz0/the_tory_brexit_bribe/

For us, its got to the point where we simply couldn't wait any longer and the prospect of an extension wasn't something we could think about any more. Time will tell if it was a huge mistake. We could have waited and then been stuck unable to find a buyer and been stuck here for years more which would be a nightmare. It might all collaspe yet anyway.

A poorly constructed shed thats about to collaspe would also be a good metaphor for Brexit tbh.

.

watching, hiding behind the sofa with my hands over my eyes, like when Dr. Who was on when I was little...