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Brexit

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2019 21:11

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

OP posts:
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HazardGhost · 09/03/2019 14:50

I'm to tired to be a brexit grump 😂

I'm just Hmm over everything. I want the votes done next week the suspense is to much.

wherearemychickens · 09/03/2019 14:55

That's my worry about the WA getting through though BigChoc; this will never end. We will be negotiating with the EU for the rest of my life.

Littlespaces · 09/03/2019 14:58

Mark Stone @Stone_SkyNews

An EU diplomat to ⁦*@guardian*⁩: “It is very clear that we are running out of time and that you are dealing with a partner preventing solutions to non-existent problems...”
“We are confronted with absolute populism and that is hard to deal with,”

1tisILeClerc · 09/03/2019 15:17

{That's my worry about the WA getting through though BigChoc; this will never end. We will be negotiating with the EU for the rest of my life.}

Leaving with 'no deal' isn't instantaneous. Some EU countries are estimating and making provisions for a year or more of 'discussions'.
During a year of such abrupt departure things will be manic as so many 'details' will get overlooked.
The WA will probably take 2 years estimated minimum, and that would be after the UK gov decides what it actually wants, and there is no sign of that so far.
Even Remain/Revoke will incur many months of disruption as although nothing really changes much, companies that have made plans to leave the UK will probably carry out the move.
So the UK is in it for the 'long haul' whatever happens, or doesn't.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 09/03/2019 15:20

wherearemychickens

We will be negotiating with the EU for the rest of my life

... This is what my DH thinks will happen. He’s thought it from the very start and consistently refuses to even discuss beyond that.

Frustrating as I want to discuss all the time...

Songsofexperience · 09/03/2019 15:34

The level of hostility from leavers has been ramped up a notch. See this Torygraph headline below. No one in France ever insulted May like this:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/08/macrons-arrogance-exceeded-stupidity-telegraph-readers-weeks/

Letters published in there are pure bile, even by their standard. This bit was especially entertaining:
'I for one am getting a bit tired of the English speaking countries saving the French from their hubris and stupidity. Perhaps, England needs to annex Brittany and Normandy once again, simply to save them from Paris'

Whoever wrote that is a complete idiot and deserves all the shit that's coming.

1tisILeClerc · 09/03/2019 15:37

A little music for the afternoon.

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 15:41

The details being overlooked will be the problem - like the passports, which might at the end of this month have invalid expiry dates, but we don't know, and even with a transition, will the expiry date be valid or not? A whole load of things like this will crawl out of the woodwork and whose jurisdiction will any dispute come under, the ECJ or one of our own courts, and will decisions being made by one court be accepted by the other?

Songsofexperience · 09/03/2019 15:42

Very good choice 1tisleclerc 😁
Another one to add to our Brexit playlist.

1tisILeClerc · 09/03/2019 15:46

While Mr Macron's ambitions and plans may be a bit overoptimistic, at least it is in the right directions and obviously in politics you never actually achieve everything you set out to do.

As has been commented many times by EU negotiators, the UK is full of what it doesn't want, but refuses to say what it does and worse there is no sign of a plan for it. At this rate, if the UK does crash out on 29 March, the UK gov will be standing in it's pants in the street saying 'what happens next' as the echoes of the EU door slamming reverberate around them.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 09/03/2019 15:49

Major grump here. I even put a bet on it Grin
I agree it will be the little things no one has realised we rely on EU for; such as the databases and people not realising they use imported goods Hmm which I suspect are quite a few...

Would be interesting to see revised EORI registration numbers for this week. Wonder if people paid attention seeing as it got some attention in the papers? I also read a piece in Guardian about booze cruise, with Leavers stocking up but "still convinced they had made the right decision" - there's no helping some people.

Tonsilss · 09/03/2019 15:52

Just bought loads of everything from the supermarket. Woman on till asked why I was buying so much. When I said I was stocking up for Brexit she had no idea what I was talking about.

SparklySneakers · 09/03/2019 15:56

Tonsilss this is why I worry that next week will see panic buying as people suddenly realise what we've been saying for months possibly since the referendum

Songsofexperience · 09/03/2019 15:59

I'd say this weekend is indeed the best time to stock up on some things. It's all going to get real next week, one way or another...

Tonsilss · 09/03/2019 15:59

I've just ordered loads of stuff from abroad online. Feels close to last minute now.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 09/03/2019 16:07

I've got a full freezer already and tins and plastic storage boxes full all over the place Grin but I've been taking advantage of deliveroo a couple of times this week as it struck me that for us eating out will be a thing of the past if prices go up any more.
Got extra shampoo and toothpaste etc yesterday. Got a few clothes for dd that go up to 3 years too big (she grows like a weed and tallest in her class). Feel like any time now we are happy to bunker down. Of course the second it kicks off i'll remember something obvious Grin

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 16:08

I suppose that Theresa May still thinks the EU will blink at 22:50 on 29th March. A year or two back when the Swiss voted in a Referendum to curb FoM, the Leavers crowed about how the EU would blink first. They didn't, and the Swiss Government, with considerably more sense than our own, said that it couldn't be done.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 09/03/2019 16:24

A lot of Sigrid songs work for Brexit (I luffs her a little bit). This one makes me think of the extension and how we should just f* off In Vain

How I feel when I read that people "didn't realise what they were voting for" (although it's never going to be an apology to be honest!)

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 16:58

I suppose that Theresa May still thinks the EU will blink at 22:50 on 29th March.

Because her judgement has been impeccable up till now ?

With the obvious caveat that no one can really be sure how subjective their predictions are, I'm generally not a "grump". And in that vein, my feeling that we are going to head into a no deal is based on the data available - and a dispassionate reading of it, sprinkled with a touch of the sensibilities I have picked up growing up around people who aren't British, but Italian, French, Irish, Swiss, and Spanish (my godfather being half-English like me, but also half-Basque, whose mother was thrown out by Franco for being a lawyer).

All of which make me believe all this talk of an extension (which is almost exclusively in English now) is based on a complete misreading of the situation and facts as they are.

Yes, there could have been an extension - we know this because it was discussed by the EU side publicly. We also know that the EUs "Brexit formation" of National Governments->EU Commission->Barnier has held rock solid (much to the UKs annoyance). Which meant that talk of an extension wasn't pie in the sky at that point.

Then Theresa May - having managed to get everyones back up - disappeared and astounded the EU by failing to get the deal - the only deal she said the UK could accept - through parliament.

That's the point at which I believe the EU realised that the UK was not ever going to pass the WA.

Now if the EU were being run by the Tories, I can easily believe they'd cynically offer as extension, just to but more time to prep themselves. But - luckily for the EU27 and unluckily for the UK - you really would have to travel a long way - in time as well as space - to come up with the current shower we have "in government". So no - I don't see the EU suggesting any extension. Yes, they would probably like more time. Who wouldn't. But not at any cost.

Once we remove the distraction of an extension, what are we left with ? A UK parliament that has now boxed itself into some weird mobius strip or Escher drawing of perpetual motion. Quite aside from the parliamentary gymnastics required to get an unamended WA into parliament again, there's the uncomfortable fact not yet contemplated that a parliament that can go from a defeat of 230 votes to a victory with nothing actually changing is going to be a laughing stock in primary schools for years to come.

If we must persist in stupid "blinking" analogies, then the WA being passed would be a sign that the UK blinked. Again something that goes to the core of the entire Leave argument. Any Leave MP who did vote for the WA is admitting the UK is against the wall. Which we know they simply cannot do - even if they actually believe it.

Tick tock, tick tock.

All that needs happen for no deal to happen is nothing. And that is exactly what we are seeing being played out ... Much Ado About Nothing.

I'm not a big fan of using military similes, but since we've had to endure a deluge of Leaver bullshit about "the war", perhaps it's the only language they understand. But if we are to play the "it's a war" mind game they so love to, it's worth reminding ourselves that long before the end of the Third Reich was a real possibility, Churchill and Roosevelt agreed that it would have to be prosecuted to total defeat, and that only unconditional surrender (i.e. no "extension") would do. And even while that was being planned, there was consideration for innocent of Germany - the trapped civilians who had no choice in their position.

I really can't be bothered to bookend that with contextual filters - I'm sure posters here will get my drift even if they disagree. If the UK won't agree the WA, then the EU has already countenanced no deal as the safest way forward.

I have to admit that the conduct of France in particular throughout the past two years has been the model of diplomatic restraint. If only for the reason that they would have every right to declare de Gaulles resolute opposition to the UKs entry to the EEC as vindicated beyond belief. I'd be curious if his stock has risen of late ?

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 17:00

RE: Will Self ...

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes
TalkinPaece · 09/03/2019 17:01

I guess I'm lucky that although DH teases me about posting on here, he happily reads over my shoulder and agrees with what most of you are saying.
We have enough of a stockpile to live entirely out of the cupboards for a week.
I'll fill all three cars with fuel at the end of the month so we can keep one running under any circumstances.
Luckily our only commitment to travel in the days after Brexit is collecting DS from Uni.

I'd estimate about 75% of the population think there will be no change to anything at the end of this month no matter how the votes go.

Littlespaces · 09/03/2019 17:07

@JacobReesMogg

"Three weeks to go until we take back control." ffs

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 17:11

As stated before - and it will be something I suspect more people might talk openly about (especially if we can come up with a snappy hashtag) - the only upside to Brexit will be the destruction of the Tory party. It's not a price I would have paid, or a deal I would have done. But, sometimes we just have to watch from the sidelines.

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 17:12

.

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes
67chevvyimpala · 09/03/2019 17:18

I've got online grocery deliveries booked up to end of March.

It'll be interesting to see if I get lots of missing items in the next 3 weeks!

We've got food in the pantry, the upstairs cupboard and the shed!

I'm doing the same as TIP and filling up the cars in the final week in March.

As we've all been I'll with this horrid virus I'm going to stock up on cold and flu meds too.

Ive got candles, wind up radio, firefighters, primus stove, powerbanks....

Sigh.

What a mess.