Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

67 My new wind up radio also charges mobile phones via USB
Am hoping my log burner will cover us if gas/electric goes and have been out with my axe chopping up wood from an old tree we had pruned the year before last. Very satisfying chopping wood!

Has this been posted yet?

Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews

Thread: Decoding the leaked Cabinet memo on Brexit. Exhibit #1 - someone in 10 Downing Street clearly asked: could the Queen block Article 50 extension? Answer: Not without politicising the monarchy

#2 What the A50 delay request could lead to: a cross party majority in the Commons takes control...

#3 What May's team fear is that, once committed to an A50 extension the Commons instructs HMG how to use it. why? Because it ends the fantasy free trade project of the Tory right as early as Weds 13/3/19...

‏#4 - note there are no other details given of the Memo: date, facsimile, full text, author - only enough of the dynamite to scare a few Tories into opposing Cooper/Bowles...
‏
#5 But what @CamillaTominey scoop shows is that May is running out of road. The A50 extension = major moral/psychological blow to May's 2-year project to bounce UK into hard Brexit. Only the Queen can dig May out of this predicament. She won't....

#6 ... that's why the self-serving clique in No.10 will probably go for a snap general election (I give it odds of 2:1) soon after the EUCO tells them to get lost on 21/3. 🍿 🍿 🍿

Here's the link to the remarkable leak story:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/08/leaked-memo-reveals-ministers-warned-brexit-plot-keep-uk-permanent/

Electricity will be ok.

Chevvy
I am very chilled about electric gas and water

Fuel - its intermittent supply rather than real shortages I am concerned about and as both DH and I have to drive to get to clients we will take the same precautions we did in 2000

Yup I have backup supplies of all essentials
as I really do not fancy going to the shops when the rest of the country finally cottons what what Brexit will mean.

Oh I'd love a chopper!

{Oh I'd love a chopper!}
I hope you take the correct precautions.

Agree TIP!

the only upside to Brexit will be the destruction of the Tory party.

I don't even think that is a given. They have a way of passing the buck.

I’d be OK for water but like others will be filling up the car with fuel. All my extras, like everything else, have to be carried up four flights of stairs!

The PM prog had a piece on how people are growing veg in their front gardens! Apparently garden centres are seeing a surge of people growing veg instead of flowers. What a surprise...I expect there’s still a “dig for Britain” folk memory thing going on.
Anyway, I emailed them and said it’s Brexit, do keep up.

DG I don't think you'll even have that one consolation:

the Tory party very probably won't die off
In fact they are likely to win the post-Brexit GE, if Corbyn is still there

The Tory party deserves to die off, for causing this disaster,
but it is the cockroach of British politics, that would crawl out from under a nuclear catastrophe

Further predictions:

I'm 70% sure that the highly competent civil service and military will enable us to avoid shortages of anything important that affects peoples' lives
The 30% is because .... Grayling

The EU will continue flights for long enough for the UK to sort out its on arrangements - because EU countries gain billions from UK tourism.
So holidays will continue

What will happen is that the trade deficit will rocket, as it'll probably be months before e.g. we get on the EU databases to export any animal products

So, I expect many business bankruptcies and maybe an extra million or even 2 unemployed
BUT
that will be spread over say 4 years
and
MrsT's de-industrialisation directly caused an extra 2 million unemployed - the Tories survived that
and she was only brought down by the poll tax, which cost most people money, not just an unfortunate minority

That's the thing: the real pain will probably be concentrated among a minority who can be ignored.

That's how the Tories got away with it in the 1980s - they bribed the aspirational with housing windfalls and bugger the rest

Dh is making raised beds!

I expect the UK economy will be damaged for decades, but it won't be sudden enough to kill off the party responsible

If I lived in the UK, I'd prepping for that 30% Grayling & co factor

MrsT's de-industrialisation directly caused an extra 2 million unemployed - the Tories survived that

We ain't in the 1980s now, Toto .... (well some of our politicians may be).

Incidentally, I find myself taking the Telegraph - if at all - with a large sack of salt.

LonelyandTiredandLow where did you get your wind up radio please?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3528704-Westminstenders-Here-we-go-again?watched=1

New thread. Sorry its short and late.

Interesting views on our position in the world Brexit vs the World.
Existential crisis sums it up!

DG I expect the same principle as the 1980s:
those who are doing OK cba with those who aren't

Human nature doesn't change