Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Could any of these suspesions affect the MV? 14 Tory suspesions over Islamophobia

Going crazy - skim read and thought it was MP's
Wishful thinking perhaps.

Our HR (in Germany) thinks there should be no problem in getting a work visa for a scientist like me

Anyway, afaik all E27 countries have said UK citizens resident on Brexit Day, even if not very long, can stay and work.
The only issue for some will be healthcare - those who are too old to join an existing scheme or have health issues excluded.

Residence would depend on having comprehensive health insurance

The current S1 form, even if continued after Brexit, applies only to those in receipt of a state pension,
in which case the expat's own govt would refund the host healthcare system.

In the interim, S1 probably won't apply

Archie was not there, but the other three were .....
I wonder what Brenda said to Tresemme?

This is interesting survey suggests 1 in 10 is stockpiling food for Brexit.

Lies, uncertainty and secrecy don't really seems to be a negotiating tactic has paid off.
twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1102837461909151745
I want to send the government to their bedroom to reconsider their actions.

DD had an ESA assessment last month and went from the support group to no points Apparently she has invented a cure for autism Really looking forward to mandatory reconsideration and appeal not

Presumably after Brexit we go back to good old fashioned duty free allowances.

I wonder what Brenda said to Tresemme?

I'm certain that the formal PM to Head of State meeting is never minuted or recorded, and no aides from either side are present, going from a Readers Digest article from waybackwhen. The article stressed the fact that the briefings are completely confidential ... in fact I have a memory that Prince Charles was slapped down when he tried to suggest he should sit in on them.

It's the one time TM has to be seen alone.

Who knows what HM has advised TM ? (There's no need to speculate on what TM has advised HM about. HM has a record of wrong footing PMs by being incredibly well informed ....)

This is interesting survey suggests 1 in 10 is stockpiling food for Brexit.

Presumably Remainers - after all Leavers know it's Project Fear ...

PMK

DG funnily enough leaver friend today told me she spent double her usual on the shopping as "it might just be wise to stock up a little, you know, just in case."
I suspect it's more that 1 in 10, or that the ones that aren't simply can't afford to .

1 in 10 people trust the government that little they think they feel the need to hoard food.

Every MP should be reflecting on that, rather hard.

Pmk

PMK more bad news.

It is hard to sympathise with the Nissan workers. The Nissan Management warned them and they chose to listen to Gove, Johnson and Farage instead.

Yes, it might have happened anyway with the European car market being mature so most people who want cars have them unlike emerging middle classes in Asia, but why on earth be the ones to volunteer to shut their plant down? Which effectively they have done.

I don't find it hard to sympathise with Nissan workers, not all of them would have voted to Leave. Seen so many horrible comments about people from Sunderland losing their jobs. Does the Remain cause no favours at all.

Metropolitan Police @ metpoliceuk
Officers from Counter Terrorism Command have launched an investigation after three suspicious packages were received at The Compass Centre #Hounslow, near #Heathrow Airport, London Waterloo Station and City Aviation House #Newham near City Airport
t.co/Uuu3RfdNHa

BBC 6 o'clock news just said that the Irish Guarda were now assisting with the investigation.

The thing that strikes me about this news story was the devices were all found. It's almost as if the police were told where to look....

Now I may well be putting 2 and 2 together and coming up with 4664 but it does make me wonder what this is about and who is involved.

Here is the BBC doing some high quality journalism on brexit

www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-47356852
Brexit: A six-year timeline featuring Britney, Ariana and Pokemon

Just really?

@RedToothBrush weren't a certain paramilitary group known for sending warnings? And why would the Garda be involved on UK soil??

Background to French industrial action at Calais:

www.bbc.com/news/47454150

Traffic jams built up on Tuesday around the French port of Calais as customs officers worked to rule, carrying out tighter checks on lorries heading for the Channel Tunnel and the ferry port.

Union officials said their "unlimited" action was aimed at "showing what will happen with Brexit", when the UK leaves the European Union.
....
The French government has announced plans to increase the number of customs officers in response to Brexit.
The 300 deployed at the Channel Tunnel will be increased to 365 while the 64 at Calais port will almost double.

But union officials say they want bigger numbers recruited because of Brexit, as well as better night pay and danger money

"If the UK becomes a third country, checks will become more in-depth.
This is the first, full demonstration of what will happen,"
said CGT union official Philippe Bollengier.

pmk

weren't a certain paramilitary group known for sending warnings? And why would the Garda be involved on UK soil??

Indeed.

Anyone watching C4 news - leading with Arron Banks and Russia.

www.channel4.com/news/the-banks-files-how-brexit-bad-boy-arron-banks-was-eyeing-a-massive-russian-gold-deal
The Banks Files: how Brexit “bad boy” Arron Banks was eyeing a massive Russian gold deal