Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

I will sign that letter TIP!!

DGR sorry to hear about DW MS. both my DLA and ESA was stopped 12 weeks before I retired. Then after MP stepped in I had to apply for PIPs. I have distonia which is related to Localised Parkinson's and actually take MS meds for spasms. On top of that I have/had pancreatic cancer and though I know you did not mean it personally it is a bit hurtful to say because I no longer need to be reassessed it will effectively mean more disabled people not of pensionable age being forced to work. The target 100,000 was there before this mornings announcement.

@67chevvyimp Wouldn't it be great if a swathe of posters on this thread could do just that and smuggle it in to HerMaj... anyone have her private email address?

I think places like cath kidston and body shop could be next.

I was looking at the really quite big Cath Kidston shop on Piccadilly in London at the weekend and idling wondering how much the rent must be. Does their profit from sales in department stores prop them up to the extent that they can afford big expensive stand-alone shops?

*idly wondering

TiP's letter is just right
I'd have mentioned Tower of London, beheading for treason

@SparklySneakers , yes a free vote means they can vote how they like.

I know you did not mean it personally it is a bit hurtful to say

and very sorry to hear. I wasn't trying to offend or hurt. But we know SOP for Tories is to announce something that sounds wonderful, only to realise that it's just been taken from somewhere else.

I managed to get DWs ESA without an assessment at all. The PIP application however was a real work of art ... I've written a £1,000,000 bid document before now (which won) which was easier than the PIP form. The assessor turned up without the application form and their idea of an assessment was to go through the form asking the questions again. They were rather floored when I produced two copies, gave them one, and read the answers out of the other. Mysteriously they had no record of DWs certificate of visual impairment. Even more mysteriously they weren't allowed to take my copy of the form away with them. The only win was the assessor making a very clear note they never wanted to see us again and no reassessment would be necessary.

It's scary to think how many people could not put that much effort into the process .

I'd always thought of orla Keily and cath kidston as being fairly similar and orla kiely went into administration last year.

I'm pondering Emma Bridgewater too.

Like some of her stuff but can only afford it when on sale.

TiP's letter is just rightI'd have mentioned Tower of London, beheading for treason

And we could all remain anonymous - even Brenda!
Funny that. I may have accidentally referred to TM as Treason May in an email to a friend last night. Though I did add a disclaimer at the end saying I am sometimes known for getting my letters muddled.

Sorry to hear that Sos . I lost my mum to pancreatic cancer so am happy to hear someone got through it!

I see the PM has finally agreed that police numbers have an impact on violent crime . Unlike them to give up and admit to common sense!

I think I’ve said it before but almost every time I go into a department store, outlet type place or generalised tat (sorry) shop like Cath Kidston, I think “surely they can’t sell all this”? Everyone in the country would have three blingy handbags/designer jumpers/flowery rucksacks each if they did. And where does the marked down stuff in TK Maxx go if I don’t buy it (I often do because I’m cheap like that)?

Borntobe there are loads of parents at dd's school who seem to have whole sets of CK - oilskin bags/key fobs/tops/tote bags. I also know someone who has entire collections of Emma Bridgewater in immaculate condition around her home and sells some of them on ebay to a very captive audience!

It's all a bit much for me if I am honest as I prefer a slightly less 'matchy' approach

Just listening to the emergency ferry debate on Parliament. Hadn't realised this was happening.

Ugly exploitation:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/05/far-right-infiltrating-childrens-charities-with-anti-islam-agenda

Rightwing groups including Ukip are attempting to “infiltrate” child protection charities to further an anti-Islam agenda, officials from the government’s counter-extremism programme believe.

Officers from Prevent said far-right figures were using voluntary groups to stir up tension in towns with historical problems of child sexual exploitation.

Sky News Breaking@SkyNewsBreak

BMW has told Sky News it will "have to consider" ending Mini production at its Cowley site in Oxfordshire in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit
and that the company would "not be very happy" with a two to three month Brexit delay

BMW has told Sky News it will "have to consider" ending Mini production at its Cowley site in Oxfordshire in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit and that the company would "not be very happy" with a two to three month Brexit delay

"Fuck business."

Thanks red

After the Costa amendment - which cost him his job:

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-asks-eu-for-citizens-rights-protection-under-no-deal-brexit-11655804

Britain is asking the EU for an agreement that would protect the rights of both sides' citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay made the request in a letter to Brussels' chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.
....
Mr Barclay and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox
..... are particularly worried about Britons living in the EU losing access to healthcare under a no-deal divorce.

Meanwhile, over the pond, Justin Trudeau's cabinet is still in trouble...

Britain is asking the EU for an agreement that would protect the rights of both sides' citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit

Except we were told before A50 (and it was restated last week) that the UK doesn't get to cherry pick and the EU won't do mini-deals.

So that's a waste of energy that could be more usefully spent nailing Grayings door shut and making sure he has an etch-a-sketch not a laptop and a smartphone that's really a block of parmesan. It's not like he'd notice.

Mr Barclay and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox ..... are particularly worried about Britons living in the EU losing access to healthcare under a no-deal divorce.

Also, the painful irony of Brits abroad now finding themselves bargaining chips isn't unnoticed.

I am suspecting the EUs response will be as lackadaisical as the UKs response to the EUs original offer on citizens rights.

I am in France- and find it rather more than a "painful irony ".
I don't know what my status here will be, like many others I've not been here 5 years so probably won't qualify for a long term CdS- and whether you get one or not seems to vary from prefecture to prefecture. It can take months to get an appointment, indeed some areas are saying they won't even interview brits at all.
As for driving licenses - we were told to exchange them, and now this week have been told they won't process any until after Brexit.

Will we still have the right to live and work here? Who knows, I don't trust any of them to tell the truth.
We are not all rich retired- what ever the media says.

Expat campaigners told the Independent that they were expecting the EU Commission’s response

because EU member states would have to change their negotiating guidelines before it could act.

Such a change would have to come at a European Council summit planned for 21-22 March – just a week before Brexit day.

So, it might happen right at the last moment and would then be drafted and ratified in April - after Brexit, unless we have an extension