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Brexit

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2019 21:11

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2019 11:09

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre)

Yet again, backstop truths: < 🤦🏻‍♀️ >

1) time-limited/UK able to terminate = not a backstop
2) EU26 won't abandon Ireland^^
3) only 3 solutions: CU + some SM for all UK, NI alone or technology etc that doesn't exist yet
4) UK committed to no hard border incl. in GFA
5) no backstop = no deal
......

More accurately: EU27 trust in UK delivering its commitments has reached new lows
.....
Brexit talks 'going backwards' after breakdown of trust between London and Brussels

< Torygraph slant on govt stupidity >

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/08/brexit-talks-going-backwards-breakdown-trust-london-brussels/

SparklySneakers · 09/03/2019 11:11

I can't find anything via google but do think its outing.

prettybird · 09/03/2019 11:17

BigChoc - the Council of Europe is not the same as the European Council. Confused

The Council of Europe pre-dates the EU by a long way (1947 iirc) and is under whose auspices the ECHR operates. It was co-founded by the UK and there are no plans yet to leave it but don't give the ERG ideas Wink

The European Council is the heads of state of the EU countries (however many there are Wink). So for May to be allowed to attend if only as an observer even though the UK is not a member, is actually quite good! depending on your point of view

SwedishEdith · 09/03/2019 11:29

I've read this story about passports a few times in a few different places and I don't get it. I know we've lost are ability to carry over up to 9 months and we need to have 6 months on our passports now. (Slow hand clap, Brexiters). But, I don't get this bit 'Consumer group Which? yesterday warned that people with up to 15 months left on their passport could be denied entry to many popular destinations in Europe.' Why? Do some people have passports that have e.g. Jan 2010 to Sept 2019?

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/passport-office-website-crashes-amid-mad-renewal-rush-as-brits-warned-they-face-being-barred-from-eu-a4085891.html#Echobox=1552001345

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 11:38

Just to confuse people, the EU flag was and still is, the Council of Europe flag. The Council of Europe adopted it decades before the EEC/EU did.

prettybird · 09/03/2019 11:38

Some people will have passports that are valid for 10years and 9 months as you used to be able to apply for a passport 9 months in advance of expiry and have the unexpired months added to the like of the passport.

This is, apparently, against some international law, which says that passports can only be valid for a maximum of 10 years. Hence the quirk that it needs to be valid for 6 months from the date that is 10 years after the date of issue Confused, you will be Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2019 11:41

pretty Yep, brainfart - I meant European Council, which has Tusk as President

The PM - probably not May by then - would be allowed to attend European Council meetings
for as lomg as we are in transition

Of course, if there is No Deal, this won't be allowed

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 11:41

The passport business is one which can't be laid at the door of Brexit. It can be laid at the door of Westminster because they sneaked the change in without informing people, who only found out when their passports came back without the additional months.

prettybird · 09/03/2019 11:41

Does the Council of Europe also have Ode to Joy as its theme tune? Grin

prettybird · 09/03/2019 11:45

I know Peregrina - I'd be pretty pissed off if I'd sent my passport off deliberately early - only to find I'd "wasted" over 5% of the cost of it - and UK passports are not cheap Angry

Brexitisshit · 09/03/2019 11:47

@SwedishEdith, I think it is because the UK used to allow you to carry up to 9 months from previous passport if you renewed early, so your new passport might expire 10years 9 months later. In no deal Brexit scenario EU countries require the passport to have at least 6months left on it, but the extra 9months don’t count - you therefore need at least 15months left if you were one of the people who carried over 9 months. Does that make sense?

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2019 11:52

swedish It only affects a very small % of passport holders

  • and it shouldn't have affected anyone at all
... but the civil service realised too late the implications of Brexit wrt passport durations

I suspect there will be umpteen issues in different fields that will be overlooked and only realised after Brexit Sad 😢

The UK until about last Autumn always added on 10 years from the date of renewal,
so if you sent in your renewal early, your passport could be valid for 10 years + several extra months

This is within the rules while we are an EU member - another exception probably for the UK - but is not allowed for non members

I renewed mine in 2017 and I did experience the issue at a German local government office,
when an official noticed I had more than 10 years left and said the passport office must have made a mistake Confused

I explained the UK system and he shook his head, but allowed it
After Brexit, it wouldn't have been valid and I'd have had to get another passport - wasting money and several weeks

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 11:59

Ah I misunderstood, or the Govt has told porkies or been economical with the truth. They said it was an ICAO requirement, and didn't mention exceptions being available for the UK as EU citizens.

TheNumberfaker · 09/03/2019 12:03

I thought the passport issue was that to enter the EU, non-EU people have to have a passport that is valid for 6months longer than entry date AND that the passport can’t have been issued more than 10 years before its expiry date.

SwedishEdith · 09/03/2019 12:04

Thanks re the passport thing. I think I sent my last one early but it still just shows same month 10 years apart. So do some people actually have passports that show 10 years, 9 months? That's the bit I'm confused about.

SwedishEdith · 09/03/2019 12:06

x-post - so, yes, some do have 10+ years.

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 12:09

Does the Council of Europe also have Ode to Joy as its theme tune?

Yes, although I had to look that up just now.

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 12:10

The passport issue seems an excellent demonstration of the fact that the world does not march to the beat of the UK ....

Peregrina · 09/03/2019 12:14

My passport shows 10 years 7 months,having renewed in November 2013, adding 7 months one, so I will need to be aware that it doesn't actually expire in June 2024 but November 2023 and in practice May 2023.

Just another little joy to comfort Brexiters. I won't be at all sorry if they are the ones caught out.

TheNumberfaker · 09/03/2019 12:17

So if we leave the EU, I can’t use my passport in the EU after October 25th is my understanding.

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes
TheNumberfaker · 09/03/2019 12:19

I meant 24th October 2025.

67chevvyimpala · 09/03/2019 12:21

I'm not going to bother renewing my UK passport.
My Irish one is cheaper and easier to renew.
Also free once over 65 :)

67chevvyimpala · 09/03/2019 12:22

Or it might be 70...cant remember

DGRossetti · 09/03/2019 12:23

Incoming Loathsome alert.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1QQ087

reuters.com
What Brexit game is EU playing? British parliament leader Leadsom asks
Elizabeth Piper
4-5 minutes

LONDON (Reuters) - The leader of Britain’s parliament Andrea Leadsom said she was beginning to wonder what game the European Union was playing over Brexit as relations between London and Brussels deteriorated ahead of a vote by lawmakers next week.

Britain's Conservative Party's leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom arrives at Downing Street in London, Britain, January 22, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

Less than three weeks before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, Prime Minister Theresa May has failed to secure the changes to the divorce agreement she needs to gain the support of lawmakers who rejected it in a record rebellion in January.

At the heart of the dispute is a disagreement over how to manage the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland.

On Friday, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier put forward a proposal to keep the border open and keep the province subject to EU rules, prompting London to reject it.

“There is still hope, but I have to say I’m deeply disappointed with what we’re hearing coming out of the EU,” Leadsom told Reuters. “I do have to ask myself what game are they playing here.”

Asked who would be to blame if May loses the parliamentary vote again on Tuesday, Leadsom said: “I would point to the EU needing to work closely with us.

“We are hoping we will be able to win that vote but that does depend on the EU coming to the table and taking seriously the (UK’s) proposals.”

Guy Verhofstadt, Brexit coordinator for the European Parliament, backed Barnier.

“He has put forward constructive additions, now we wait for a credible response from the UK to ensure an orderly Brexit,” he said on Saturday.
NO BREAKTHROUGH

Talks will continue in Brussels but without a major breakthrough, May looks set to lose her second attempt to get lawmaker’s approval and smooth Britain’s exit from the EU, its biggest shift in trade and foreign policy in more than 40 years.

The main sticking point is the so-called Northern Irish backstop, an insurance policy to prevent a return of border controls in Ireland that eurosceptics believe is an attempt to trap the country in the EU’s customs union indefinitely.

Barnier’s solution would potentially create a “border” in the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, a move that is particularly unpalatable to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

As defenders of the union with Britain, the DUP opposes any change that would treat Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the United Kingdom. May relies on DUP votes to get her legislation passed after she lost her parliamentary majority.

Brandon Lewis, the chairman of May’s ruling Conservative Party, said on Saturday the government could never accept a deal which threatened the integrity of the union.

Leadsom said were Britain to leave the EU without a withdrawal deal it would be harder to guarantee the smooth flow of goods and people across the Irish border that has been possible since 1998.

“In making it impossible for us to sign up to that (deal), it actually makes the problems with the Northern Irish border harder to solve, not easier to solve,” she said.

May warned on Friday that were lawmakers to reject her deal on Tuesday, it would increase the chance that Brexit never happens, leaving voters feeling betrayed.

If her deal is rejected, lawmakers will be able to vote on Wednesday and Thursday on whether they want to leave the bloc without a deal or ask for a delay to Brexit beyond March 29 - all but wresting control of Brexit from the government.

Writing by Kate Holton; Editing by Janet Lawrence

Sostenueto · 09/03/2019 12:29

grinchly its OK I just can't believe how unsafe social media is. I don't mind if you know my home town just fascinated as to why anyone would want to have to know. I have nothing to hide I'm just an ordinary person very rare do I use social media apart from this thread and another platform I use with actual real life friends of many years. It fascinates me that people have to google everything too, though I google too.Grin