Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Sparkly I thought the same.
My leaver friend yesterday scoffed when I said I had read 1 in 10 were stockpiling. She said "you don't know anyone else who is though, do you?" I said "Actually everyone I've asked is." She reels of 5 mutual friends (she lives far away from us now) and I confirm that each and every one of them is stockpiling. She began talking about the news on tariffs - to which I said I wasn't sure if Fox and Gove were communicating well, because Gove promised farmers that wouldn't happen as it would wipe out argi sector for starters. For some reason she then went on to list her weekly meat shop...I really had to bite my tongue to stop telling her beef is on the list of food items that may be hard to obtain. She's read all of the articles, so I literally cannot fathom how she is being so cloth eared.

However, as with an extension, the EU would need to agree

• afaik, the Commission cannot agree this without heads of govt, but I don't know if this agreement has to be unanimous

So it might just be a very short term option if a member vetos the extension - or it might not

From the post by Lonely, above:
{Brexit stockpiling!}

Also known as shopping.
which bonkers world has shopping, where you buy 3 tins of beans instead of 2 as a headline article.?

But the 52 year-old Foreign Office chief is now seen by most Conservative MPs as having the best chance of stealing the crown because of Mr Javid’s troubles over knife crime and illegal migrants in the Channel.

I’d say Javid has even more troubles now. Shamima Begum’s newborn baby has died and Javid is getting some stick.

Following news of the boy's death, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott branded Mr Javid's decision as "callous and inhumane".
Ms Abbott said on Twitter: "It is against international law to make someone stateless, and now an innocent child has died as a result of a British woman being stripped of her citizenship.

news.sky.com/story/shamima-begum-strong-but-unconfirmed-reports-is-brides-baby-has-died-lawyer-11658710

(Hmmm... I can’t help but feel that Abbott has made a bit of a jump there in the causation of this sad event....)

Whatever the rights and wrongs of this case, Begum has had a terrible time losing 3 babies by the age of 19. I can’t imagine...

As I posted on another thread. Of course the WA has a leave endpoint. If it wasn't leave then there would be no need for the transition period because the UK hasn't left yet.

I know you have BCF. Those flow charts...

No one is taking it as a real possible risk are they?

The list of incompetence seems to be a daily occurance that we have become total immune to unpicking it.

It's terrifying.

I'm confused (nothing new there). If the WA is passed then when exactly are we no longer part of the EU? From the 29th March (if that date still stands) or from the end of the transition period?

Technically 29 March 2019 but we are still attached during the transition period. With no voting rights or say in overall policy.

lonelyandtired If you want to blow her mind about possible delays, with logjammed ports on both sides of the Channel

• you might mention about NTBs (Non-Tariff Barriers) which can actually cause more issues in international trade than different tariffs:

phytosanitary checks, safety checks e.g. on electrical goods, on flammability of textiles, or lead paint etc on toys, certificates for mandatory recycling, rules of origin of all components, ....

• When it comes to UK exports, we don't have enough pallets of the allowed kind and those we send will have to be checked,

• Then there is the whole problem of different VAT levels for different things in the different countries, which HMRC will have to handle ...

• the govt reports that few UK firms have even applied for the forms they need

So checks will mostly need to be done in full

Thanks bellinisurge that rings a bell now! If nothing gets sorted in the transition period then what happens?

Abbot has misfired (not unusual)
Within the Tory party, Javid would have been boosted by being tough over Begum

and it's not just Tories who think the deaths of those innocent little babies is entirely her fault
Even the last one, whom she tried unsuccessfully to use as a lever to get out of the internment camp herself, to avoid facing possible charges abroad.

I hope your 5 friends are ok with being outed as stockpiling lonely

I’ve not told anyone irl.

{Thanks bellinisurge that rings a bell now! If nothing gets sorted in the transition period then what happens?}

I think the UK would effectively stay in the EU but loses MEPs and a passporting rights and quite a lot of things that Remain voters don't want to lose. I believe that by proper negotiation, which the EU will be happy to be part of and probably quite amenable if it is mutually beneficial then it could be a reasonable 'deal' by the end. The biggest problem will be many months or even into years delay in starting negotiations because UK government still doesn't know what it wants. This will have the effect of pushing business who might have been persuaded to stay, to make greater effort to leave.
Maybe if it was phrased to the UK workers of BMW and the likes that you are suspended on UK minimum benefits until it is resolved (could be a year) it might focus minds a bit more. In reality, BMW/Nissan/Airbus will be running various scenarios through a bit of financial modelling software and come up with a date when they will leave.

You also have to bear in mind the Chinese economy is slowing down which is hurting the EU financially. An upside is that it might help with the climate change problems.
While the UK is in anguish about the loss of car production, which might be around 1 million vehicle a year, there are factories in one Chinese city turning out 24 Million a year.

Under the WA, in transition afaik everything stays the same wrt EU benefits,
except that we lose MEPs and voting rights

I gather that the PM would be allowed to present her views in the Council of Europe, but not have a vote.

FOM would remain, as would financial passporting and all other EU trade / services benefits

The plan for non-EU trade is that the EU would take the UK under its wing - possibly using some legal dodges too -
pressure other countries to keep all agreements rolled over during transition and pretend the Uk is still a member.

In transition, we would of course remain within all EU agencies,
e.g. EURATOM, EMA (meds agency), Open Skies (flights), electricity supplies (NI connectors) etc

67chevvy to be fair it was me who convinced three of them to start and they are now encouraging others. The other 2 talk about it openly so I don't think they mind people knowing. It's harder in my circle to find people who aren't stockpiling to be honest!

I did wonder if that lady on the news was an mner!!

I've just stopped mentioning it now.

I did advise mum some time ago to order a many meds as she could and to get some uht milk etc but she just laughed.

I'd love to know how many leavers are stockpiling....

Morning all. The ignorance around the fact that no deal is the default is pervasive.

Interesting reading your comments about my lawyer colleague last night who wouldn't accept this.
He's a remain voter, and contrary to quite justified speculation, not a junior conveyancer, but a barrister and highly intelligent. Two other colleagues backed him up. Also remain voters.

This illustrates the extent of lies and misinformation that shrouds Brexit.

Brexit has become an obsession with me, and yet intelligent articulate people who maybe only take an average interest in it can get is so wrong. I hope events do not conspire to prove me right.

@Sostenueto sorry to hear about your traumatic evening - you may want to have post deleted though as it is a bit outing.

From Guardian.
{Worried about Brexit? What, with these geniuses in charge?
Marina Hyde
Marina Hyde}
If you need a bit of a giggle in a facepalm / headbanging against a wall sort of way.

I'm ill.
I've been in denial but I guess having ds2 cough in my face for a week was too much for my knackered immune system :(

grinchly my post a bit ' outing?' Hooray!!!!!!

Take care of yourself, chevvy
I can only send you virtual Lindt

I don't get it Sos? I googled and found the news item which names your town. If you're fine with that then fine.