Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

I won't pass this time;
I'm thinking of the next time, if all other options have been rejected by the EU

I could envisage the vote for the WA being soundly thrashed again, but TM would probably just blunder on.

I can see her pulling the vote, and then announcing that since it's the job of parliament to do the bidding of the people, and the bidding of the people was to leave the EU, then the failure of parliament to pass the WA is in fact an advisory failure, and the WA has to be respected as it's the will of the people. It would certainly fit into the trajectory of rhetoric she was spinning up yesterday about "not letting the 17 million down". (Although to be fair that could also be a reference to half the Eurotunnel bung ....)

It's no less plausible than reading a story about people losing their investments in a firm run by someone whose surname is "Careless" ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-47454328

I won't pass this time; I'm thinking of the next time, if all other options have been rejected by the EU

Isn't that assuming an extension ? That we won't get.

peregrina Have you got an EU cap, to keep off the sun

I often jog proudly along the Rhine with my EU cap, T shirt & jacket too
or to the shops or gym

I'm so glad I can do that here, without hassle

DG I'm thinking of the final few days of March

Although I think about a 70% chance she'd ask for a 2-3 week extension, just to keep trying the WA basically
The EU would probably agree, so long as the extension ends before the EP elections

We can't say the EU definitely will or definitely won't grant an extension
or on what terms

That's a big part of the UK problem: assuming the EU will do what we think they should

Percentage chance of no deal departure on 29 March? Time to stock the freezer yet? Or worth betting on WA or extension and booking a cheap holiday in April?

I have a euro beanie, knitted by my own fair hand. Can't find the picture now, but the pattern was by Anke Klempner on ravelry if anyone wants to make one.

Well, i've now booked two holidays to europe so far, if there is a no-deal, i'll eat my hat, will destroy the economy, the Tories will get the blame and split their party.

May has to get her WA ratified by Parliament and go before the Monarch, that is laid down in law, she cannot just blunder on and ignore the HoC.

If she loses, I think she'll have to agree to a long extension, a new renegotiation or a GE if she refuses any form of PV

As regard to the EP elections, surely if art 50 had been triggered in March '18 instead, we'd be having them regardless? don't really see it as an insurmountable problem.

I'm getting to the march by car and on foot so will not show up in any bookings.
And am still trying to work out what to say on my "banner"
Even my kids now approve of my stockpiling and Marching - which is quite an achievement.

2.5 years of personal disbelief, pain, anger, sadness, shame...and what's been the point?

2.5 years of arguments with dh, spending money on items and making plans to try and lessen the impact on my children.

2.5 years of being called a traitor, part of the metropolitan elite, told to fuck off to the EU if I dont like the new, improved, racist, xenophobic and backward thinking UK.

2.5 years of constant worry, stress and what for?

Ffs.

There seem to be several of us grumps, who think No Deal is still the most likely alternative,
vs
a few who are convinced No Deal won't happen

imo the latter have too much faith in the competence of our politicians
and their willingness to back down in humiliation when they realise the only alternative is No Deal

DG I think you are a fellow member of Grump Club

I'm a member too :(

I'm a grump

I am a member of the Grump club too.

Someone (female) on Any Answers just now blaming knife crime on the EU and feminism. Worth a listen on catch up if you want your mind boggled.

67chev

If my partner was a brexitier, i'd finish the relationship, just as i couldn't have a relationship with a Tory or someone who believes in hitting children.

I'm sitting outside the grump club hoping that someone shuts it down but knowing it might be my fate.

He isn't a brexiteer!!

He just didn't understand my need to prepare. It caused a lot of arguments at the time.

I'm pleased that he's come round but it shows that even the most head-in-the-sand person is now paying attention.

It is crazy. Elderly Brexiteer tried to convince me that Victorian England & Empire would have been a better place to live.

Maybe for the rich. I pointed out that our family and most other families were poor in Victorian England which had lots of problems like cholera, disease, workhouses, child labour, lack of employment rights, life expectancy, mortality, slavery, suppression of women, slums & overcrowding.

Give me strength.

Grump Club may well be the majority of Westministenders
A lot of people chewing finger nails

I hope we can all laugh in relief once this is settled
.... in a few weeks ... or another 2 years .... or 5 years ....

67chev phew!!!!

Littlespaces Plenty of those in Cornwall, usually babyboomers, who never experienced war/rationing but seem convinced they won WW2, some even think they also saved the UK from German rule in WW1 as well.

I'm not in the grumpy club but the 'exceedingly angry' club of which Brexit represents significantly less than half of it. Fortunately there is quite a bit of sea and I can't swim so the guilty are safe.