Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

peregrina Yes. I'd originally thought this only affected those who presented with a passport that was valid for more than 10 years past the date presented

I then realised it means all of us who obtained more than 10 years will have to renew within 10 years of the date of issue,
so the valid date that my passport shows .... is actually invalid now

My renewal date is still in 2027, but 5 months earlier - so I've written myself umpteen electronic reminders !

I expect many people will forget, or still not realise, so get caught out in the next several years

I expect / hope to be issued with a German residence card after Brexit, which would be sufficient iD here to tide me over during any wait period later for renewal
Maybe the UK will have ID cards too, by that time

Maybe brexshit needs to happen. Maybe the fallout will cure the leavers mad buggers? I'm wondering that too, although given the age of the mad buggers in my family it is more demographics that will bring a return to sanity.

For RedToothBrush A flow chart with No Deal on it for next week.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47482047

The Tories locally are getting rattled about the forthcoming Council elections. So they are sending in some troops. Angela Leasdom for one - I strongly suspect that she will be more of a liability than an asset.

Yes, looks like 24 Oct 2025, number

Interesting they consider "renegotiation" a final outcome. I wonder if the EU sees it that way ....

Nope
Of those 7 final options, only passing the WA and Revoke are within the control of the UK
The EU may refuse the other 5, or want conditions

I think the EU have said they would renegotiate if we drop one of the red lines. Otherwise it would be a no.

Surely as flowcharts go there is a line missing, the one that goes from the 7 options at the bottom back up to the top as it is all going around in circles. (The New Seekers if you want a tune to go with it).

The People's March organisers seem to be in denial about 29th March as well
its surreal

Just because they do not want it to be true etc etc

Littlespaces The acquiescence to renegotiation was months ago
At this stage, there would be great reluctance to reopen the whole negotiations
They just want it over with

The most that is possible is that the WA itself would stay the same, including the backstop
but the EU would be prepared to renegotiate the PD, i.e. the type of the future trade deal / relationship

If the UK wants frictionless trade, that means the SM - which means dropping FOM and ECJ from the red lines - in addition to a customs arrangement

Without the SM, trade can never be frictionless

We'd be allowed time to negotiate becoming a 3rd pillar of the EEA - since EFTA don't want us in -

but that would involve dropping the 2 red lines
and a much longer extension, with participation in EP elections

All dependent on MPs actually agreeing to what they want with a sufficiently large majority to be convincing that it won't be soon reversed
and also that what they want is something the EU is prepared to give

The EU negotiators are tough enough to give China, Russia and the USA a good run for their money, what kind of stupidity and delusion is in the UK government's heads to think that they can force the EU to do anything?

The EU negotiators are tough enough to give China, Russia and the USA a good run for their money, what kind of stupidity and delusion is in the UK government's heads to think that they can force the EU to do anything?

I give you ... Liam Fox.

Maybe brexshit needs to happen. Maybe the fallout will cure the leavers mad buggers?

Based on the Leavers I know I completely disagree with this.

The mad ones are incurable. To exaggerate....The pound can plummet to 5% of its original value, we can become the 30 th strongest economy, the NHS can transform into a US hospital charging £1,000 for an X-ray, Car and Aerospace manufacturing and farming can fold completely,worker's rights and national minimum wage can be slashed etc etc.

The Leavers I know will still say all this would have happened anyway. Assuming Brexshit will teach certain politicians and voters a lesson is a flawed premise.

The People's March organisers seem to be in denial about 29th March as well

I think for many of us, it's not about a vote, it's a show of strength and that we haven't gone away, and will need a lot more than silly slogans to make us go away. There seem to be many more coaches going this time than on the previous march, when we got 700,000, and many of us will travel independently.

"You cannot reason someone out of something they were not reasoned into."

Some Leavers will never accept Brexit is at fault for what happens.

They will claim it is all EU punishment

.... but if you think the EU is a wicked bunch who would punish you, then
why vote to put yourself in a situation when they have the power to do so ?

Why vote for something that depends on the cooperation of those you regard as enemies ?

Iceland ranked at about 100th in GDP figures may not be so bad.
It is all to do with how the wealth is distributed. Looking at the tables, there are quite interesting positions shown. People may not think Luxembourg is a 'poor' country but it is a long way down GDP tables.

The People's Vote is the only way for Remainers to express their wish to Remain
or at least to have the softest possible Brexit
Not much else is possible.

A large attendance will keep up the pressure

It maybe doubles the 1% chance that May would Revoke at the last minute, if faced with a certain No Deal.

If the WA is eventually passed and we get into transition negotiations, it helps pressure the govt to go for an EEA 3rd pillar
and keeps open the option of Fast Track rejoin once they see how inferior the possible deals are to EU membership.

Quality of life - as far as it can be measured by figures - is more about GDP per head
and the Gini coefficient - the measure of inequality

Leaver arguing is a little like pig wrestling, but there are some ways to get them to at least STFU ...

As BCF suggests, pointing out that if the UK was as powerful as they think it is, then how can a pissant little club like the EU possibly stand in the way of our destiny ? If you are really lucky and get someone whose mouth writes cheques their intellect can't cash, you might get something about "when 27 countries all club together", which rather signs seals and delivers the reason for remain.

I think the closer we get to the 29th, the less the distinction between "leaver" and "brexiteer" matter. No one with any sense would still support Leaving now - nothing to do with the original arguments and everything to do with how staggeringly incompetently it's been handled. I suspect when our grandchildren learn the history, Brexit will be in a list along with Napoleon and Hitlers attempts to invade Russia, the Bay of Pigs, and Gallipoli ... other posters are free to suggest similar incidents in history of equal incompetence. Gutenbergs failed tat sale would have been a shoe-in, but we did get the printed word as a result. I don't think blue passports (printed in France) are quite as epoch-defining.

Been to Iceland. A lot of people seem to have multiple jobs to make ends meet since the banking crisis. There is more tax redistribution though.

It is a tiny population in Iceland - 700,000

If the WA is eventually passed

That was never going to happen.

I could envisage the vote for the WA being soundly thrashed again, but TM would probably just blunder on.

I keep wondering what will become the tipping point, or to mix metaphors, be the straw which breaks the camels back.

BTW now got the t-shirt for the march. Already had a flag and a bollocks to brexit badge.