Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Facts that John Humphrys didn't bother checking when he tried to suggest to the Irish Minister that Ireland needed to leave the EU along with the UK otherwise it would be disastrous for the Irish economy.

She was very gentle and diplomatic in saying the figures he was quoting were out of date

That's why we must quote hard figures & references whenever we can, to try to counter these myths LIES:

Thank goodness for that BCF☺️

PMK

Sorry for my C&P but I put this on the end of last thread.
{All these slightly optimistic 'new' trade figures and bandying around GDP and 'trade' is severely lacking in the detail and of massive importance is what is traded and where it comes from. Much of the world trade is in a 'status quo', there are long established trade routes, techniques and partners for almost every commodity that each country currently buys. This has taken a couple of hundred years to develop and the prospect of ripping this up overnight for the benefit of the UK is just ridiculous.
Fresh tomatoes from Spain. OK cancel Spain, so where else can produce the quantity that the UK buys IMMEDIATELY that can get from vine to supermarket in a day? And to then expect them to be cheaper, but the same variety and quality you are truly in fairyland!
Now do even a simple analysis of the trade that the UK does currently, and consider what implications changing say 75% of this within a few months will do.
Peru could offer guinea pig steaks, could be a massive earner for them to replace say New Zealand lamb. You wouldn't get schools in England serving them although I believe they are tasty and a good size for a lunch.}

I see these as a significant part of the smoke and mirrors. All the figures are assuming that the goods the UK wants to trade are sitting in warehouses in 'other' countries and that they can get to /from the UK in the same time and (according to unicorn theory) cheaper.

Bunker Mentality / political spite: Liam Fox’s trade department cancels business Brexit briefings

When people ask why businesses don't make public statements about Brexit problems,
it's not just because of the NDA's: it's being shut out of vital govt information

https://www.ft.com/content/25b1eb3e-3e85-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44

Halt to roundtables after details on lack of deals leaked by infuriated participants
.....
The Federation of Small Businesses criticised the trade department, saying it should be keeping companies informed about efforts by the UK to replicate the trade deals the EU has with other countries.

Craig Beaumont, director of external affairs at FSB said:

“With three weeks to go, withdrawing information on progress for these deals is hardly the right approach.

The priority should be getting them signed;
where they can’t be signed, the priority should be openly helping businesses prepare whose trade relies on them.”

Law to jail Russian spies has been delayed until 2020 because of ‘a massive backlog of legislation in Parliament’

Brexit is blocking almost everything else in Parliament

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8561539/russian-spy-law-delayed-2020/

The catch-all law will close down legal loopholes to ensure it is always illegal to carry out any work here for potential enemy powers, such as Russiaa^ or China.

Work began on it when Theresa May promised to get tough on Russia’s shadowy GRU military intelligence service after the Salisbury nerve attack outrage a year ago yesterday.

But security chiefs have been left frustrated after its introduction date has been repeatedly delayed, it is suspected because of the massive backlog of new legislation built up through the Brexit logjam that has ensnared Parliament.

No10 have now agreed to give the Espionage Bill a slot in the Commons in early to mid 2020,
but have also warned that too may slip.

Peru could offer guinea pig steaks, could be a massive earner for them ....

Fernando is already on to the idea - he would my friend. 🎼

We talk about eating squirrels -and bans on eating cats and dogs regularly on here. Vote Leave to sample new meat sources -yum.

The average Peruvian guinea pig weighs about 700 grams, but the new strain, which has been developed using cross-breeding and a high-protein diet, offers up to 1.15 kilograms of low-cholesterol meat.
Old Trading, a Lima company that exports Peruvian food, particularly to countries with large Peruvian immigrant populations, ships up to 1000 of the new guinea pigs to the US and Japan every week.
Fernando Ramos, general manager of Tito's Peruvian Restaurant in London, said he would be ready to offer the new guinea pig as a speciality. "We would consider serving them on special occasions, such as the Peruvian Creole food day at the end of October."

guinea-pig link 🐹

Bloody hell, let's just pull the plug already! Brexit's not working. Face it and deal with the consequences whilst enjoying the status quo! What could happen? Really? A 'yellow vest' style rebellion? It's gone on for 16 weeks in France and whilst it's been a nuisance over there, it's only cost 1 or 2 billion €, a FRACTION of what brexit's already cost us and WILL cost us in future.

.

I'm not sure I'm believing my ears this morning! Apparently us pensioners who claim PIP will no longer have to be reassessed! It is so welcome for many. It was said that it has always been unfair. Whether the promise of this is just another carrot by the Tories I don't know. What I do know is what I went through last year. Having DLA took away because I had survived more than 6 months, having to change to PIPs 3 months before I retired and knowing they could not process me in time, , having to get MP involved, all while having chemo, almost did me in! I have been registered disabled since 2009 even working whilst severely disabled until I could work no longer in 2011. I was awarded DLA for life at the time but still had to go through reassessment twice in last 6 years. Soooo, as with all Tory promises I will believe it when I see it!

DD telling me there is worry about food shortages in care homes and units. She says there's not enough room to have freezers all over the place where she works though they do have freezers. Another added worry. Next week had better solve stuff. Also worried about knife crime dgd has Nottingham and Manchester on her short list of units. Nothing but massive headaches whichever way due to austerity and bloody brexit!

I'm not sure I'm believing my ears this morning! Apparently us pensioners who claim PIP will no longer have to be reassessed

Disabled pensioners ....

Thought I'd put this on the thread already. Sorry for repeated spamming :)

Info about the Put it to the People March.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3510056-Put-it-to-the-People-March-23rd-March

@Motheroffourdragons what was the cause of the jam?

Sorry if this has already been posted, but the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly are simultaneously debating a motion to rule out no deal, delay Brexit and maybe hold a PV: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47447176

Is this likely to help at all? I feel desperately in need of a straw to clutch at the moment

Looks like it's Border control striking that's causing tunnel issues.

Speaking of which the French customs have issues their own Brexit what to do document.
www.douane.gouv.fr/Portals/0/fichiers/douane/brexit/brexit-customs-guidelines.pdf

Yet more bloody chaos. revealed in evidence to the HoC Public Accounts Committee

JPCampbellBizz@JP*Biz

HMRC being asked again about what the Brexit plan is for the Irish border.

Sir Jon Thompson reduced to aplogetically reading out the pro forma:
'The govt will publish further details on its immediate temporary arrangments for trade between NI & RoI'_
....._
Karen Wheeler, from HMRC Border Delivery Group, says that in event of no deal on 29 March, neither HMRC or NI traders could be ready_
.....
Jim Harra:
'My main worry for day 1 is there is insufficient time for traders who wish to comply...even if we announced tomorrow what our processes are.'

There we have it from HMRC's man who is responsible for operationalising whatever the govt eventually decide.
.....
Jim Harra reiterates that HMRC can't yet give specific border guidance to NI businesses until a policy is produced.
'Wow,' says PAC chair Meg Hillier

None of this - the inability to provide more detail, the logjam in parliament - none of this is at all news to me. It was all predicted welll before the referendum.

Yep I'm disabled DGR!