Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Same old same old.

No new news

I don't suppose Sinn Fein will suddenly have a change of heart and take their seats - but it would have an interesting effect on the arithmetic if they did.

WTF ?

Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse

Notwithstanding earlier statements from No 10 that no such technology exists,

HMG is now committed to seeking "cutting-edge technologies" to as alternative arrangements to the Irish border.

These may include radio frequency vehicle tracking, apps and artificial intelligence. WMS:

Is it November again?

Sorry I'm getting very confused and thought we'd had this conversation already and May acknowledged that this was an epically shit idea that wouldn't work.

So the question is, why is she now politicking in this way. This isn't about being serious about this as a practical idea. This is about pure politics to look like this is what she supports.

I use(d) LK Bennett so I’m pissed off about that and all.

@red Last night, the HoL voted overwhlemingly that the govt should negotiate a CU,
presemably during the WA transition negotiations after Brexit

The government would need^ to win a vote in the HoC to remove this requirement^

I thought the HoL vote could be v positive, since May would struggle to win this
..... or she could piss off the ERG, accept it and gain Labour's support / abstention on the next WA vote.

What do you think ?

No, this magic tech is being discussed today
Always seems like giving the toddlers picture books & glitter to play with

Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse

President Juncker has agreed with Theresa May that a workstream looking at these ideas will operate in parallel to the phase two negotiations.
....
better get your CV in

I think the Times front page article which says that remain cabinet members say May must hold fresh votes - an indicative vote - or she will lose control of Brexit is VERY interesting in that context.

I'm guessing the border stuff is May resisting that and trying to appear that she is aligned with hardline Brexiteers.

That's either an action before she doubles down and is a pig headed idiot or for show, just before she uturns, but is trying to look tough and lay blame at Remainers feet.

and she's back to pleading with the EU
Well, it's an improvement on haranguing them in September

Do you think she can reverse the HoL CU vote in the HoC ?

If she had any sense, she'd embrace it and woo Labour

BCF every time she's done that, it's been less about persuading the EU and more about domestic politics.

I don't see this time being any different.

The only way that technology wizardry can be relevant is if we leave viaWA and the backstop is never needed because we have worked something out in the transition period.
It ain't going to be magicked up in a week. So the House of Commons will either be reassured by that smoke and mirrors or it won't.

This is the Lords CU story from last night:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/06/brexit-latest-news-pmqs-mays-offer-to-protect-workers-right-dismissed-as-worthless-by-labour-and-unions-politics-live?page=with:block-5c805644e4b016d234256c13#block-5c805644e4b016d234256c13

The government are defeated on Labour’s amendment 13 in the House of Lordss^.

The amendment makes it an “objective” of the government during negotiations to pursue a free trade deal allowing the UK to stay “in a customs union” with the EU after Brexit.

I have a pair of beautiful LK Bennett shoes but they are now over 10 years old I get compliments every single time I wear them (now only have the occasion to do so every few months or so)

Got them half price in the sales though, so "only" £80 rather than £160. In fact, I was out looking for shoes for a Christmas party with dh, without success (I always have difficulty finding shoes that fit, I like, are not too high and that are comfortable) and mentioned to him that I'd seen a nice pair in LK Bennett that were too expensive at £160. He then admitted that the Sale notification had arrived in the post and he'd hidden it

But they've never done another pair like it since - I go in and look twice a year in hope.

John Rentoul is another with a Flowchart ... which again doesn't have No Deal as an endpoint in any flow:

Round and round and round we go. I'm bloody dizzy.

Rentoul on his thread was asked about omitting No Deal as a possible endpoint
and answered
"because MPs won't vote for it"

BUT
That doesn't matter if we run out of time / are refused an extension

No Deal is what automatically happens if nothing else does

MPs and even the best political commentators don't seem to face up to this

Post a pic of your shoes prettybird I’ll see I can find similar.

Tatiana - here they are: purple suede "hidden platform" shoes, with a nice line for the heel which is not too skinny nor too high (because of the hidden platform), therefore actually quite comfortable

Never seen similar before or since (and have looked for similar in other shops).

Don't need to be purple suede - but it's amazing how many outfits (of different colours ) I've decided "go" with them

Brexiter lies about the EU are everywhere

Even on that AIBU thread about a teacher planning to smash eggs to demonstrate probability
a poster was claiming it didn't matter because "the EU generates millions of tons of vveg waste with its rules"

I corrected that, but it shows what lies some people believe ... and will continue to believe

Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse

Brexit severs data transfers not only with the EU, but also 13 adequacy agreements with states inc the US, Japan and Switzerland.

Now regulators are moving to repair the damage

https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/cross-jurisdiction/world-moves-to-patch-brexit-hit-to-uk-data-flows

The pound is going up relatively to euro...are the markets betting on a delay? But that really not so good for business....

Well there's seems to be mention of a bit of strife over AL announcement on business. Apparently the 12 th is on but not sure about 13 th and 14th. Have I missed something about if WA fails then TM won't let Parliament vote on 13th and 14th?? I only caught tail end of announcement and surely TM wouldn't withdraw Parliament voting on no deal or extension?

If she tries that on, it's go completely mental.

pretty they’re gorgeous! I’ll put my thinking cap on.