Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

[RedToothBrush]

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

Here you go.....
WEDNESDAY 13 MARCH
CHAMBER
QUESTIONS
OP button11.30amQuestions to the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office
OP button11.53amTopical Questions to the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office
OP button12 noonQuestions to the Prime Minister
Afterwards
SPRING STATEMENT 2019
TENANCY (DEPOSITS AND ARBITRATION): TEN MINUTE RULE MOTION
Lloyd Russell-Moyle
That leave be given to bring in a Bill to establish a single custodial tenancy deposit scheme; to provide for that scheme to invest deposits; to require interest on such investments to be used for the provision of tenant advocacy, tenant support and arbitration services; to establish a mandatory arbitration service for the resolution of disputes between landlords and tenants; and for connected purposes.
Notes:
The Member moving and a Member opposing this Motion may each speak for up to 10 minutes.
GENERAL DEBATE ON HOUSING
The Prime Minister
That this House has considered housing.
ADJOURNMENT DEBATE
OP buttonAppeals process for war pensions: Justin Madders
WESTMINSTER HALL
OP button9.30am That this House has considered the application of the family test: Steve Double
OP button11.00am That this House has considered acute NHS care in South West Herts: Sir Mike Penning
Notes:
The sitting will be suspended from 11.30am to 2.30pm.
OP button2.30pm That this House has considered fishing and the UK leaving the EU: Melanie Onn
OP button4.00pm That this House has considered Child Trust Funds: Helen Goodman
OP button4.30pm That this House has considered improvements to disability assessment services: Gillian Keegan
Notes:
The second part of the sitting will be suspended and time added if divisions take place in the main Chamber (Standing Order No. 10(3)).
The debate at 4.30pm will last for up to an hour.
THURSDAY 14 MARCHCHAMBER
QUESTIONS
OP button9.30am Questions to the Secretary of State for International Trade
OP button9.53am Topical Questions to the Secretary of State for International Trade
OP button10.00am Questions to the Minister for Women and Equalities
OP button10.23am Topical Questions to the Minister for Women and Equalities
Afterwards
BACKBENCH BUSINESS
OP buttonNICE appraisal processes for treatments for rare diseases
Liz Twist
That this House has considered NICE appraisal processes for treatments for rare diseases.
Notes:
The subject for this debate was determined by the Backbench Business Committee.
ADJOURNMENT DEBATE
OP buttonClyde House and A2Dominion: Justine Greening
WESTMINSTER HALL
OP button1.30pm That this House has considered the Sixth Report of the Scottish Affairs Committee, The future of the oil and gas industry, HC 996: Pete Wishart
Notes:
The subject for this debate was determined by the Liaison Committee.
OP button3.00pm That this House has considered registration fees at the Health and Care Professions Council: Mr Jim Cunningham
Notes:
The sitting will be suspended and time added if divisions take place in the main Chamber (Standing Order No. 10(3)).

Well its on there 2.30 pm 13th the vote on no deal along with discussing fishing. Cannot see vote for extension of A50 on the 14th?

I've looked twice I cannot see time alloted for vote on extending A50 on the 14th? Is TM so sure her deal/no deal will get through then? Surely we will need short extension if either of those get through? Even more now!

Still counting down the weeks (5) until Fartage gets some comeuppance for his shady dealings. As is clear in this article UK is at a crossroads with Brexit to either become a leading role against money laundering or as Nicky Morgan says "bow to buccaneering deregulatory pressures..."

Have I just seen correctly that the Haddenham Stone by elections have seen a massive swing to Greens from Tories?

Haddenham Stone by election was won by the Greens.
I suspect that issues like HS2 and housebuilding in the green belt might also be factors.

Mark Carruthers not reading the same memo as the BBC in GB.

twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1103756016968220673

This crowd are happy to alienate everyone who is not a DUPer. Following orders was the defence used in Nuremberg.

Was QT supposed to be from Strabane this week? Instead Clacton on Sea.

Couldn't face reality. Especially after what Karen Bradley said in Parliament. And would have exposed that there is support in NI for the backstop. Can still pretend the DUP's position is NI's position.

twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1055579852064149504?lang=en

Bradley should be fired.

I expect we've already discussed it but I only just twigged ( or tigged) what the latest YouGov Westminster voting intention said:

•41% Conservative (unchanged from the previous week')
•30% Labour
•10% LibDem

That's an 11-point Tory lead which is the largest this Parliament.

It just seems to me that the TIggers, moderates, H o L are doing last minute stuff to damage limit the clusterfuck - yet the Tory support remains largely unaffected? So the new moves are splitting the opposition but not attracting moderate Tory voters ?

If the TIGgers are included as an official party the Tory's do go down to 36% but that's still 13 points up on Labour on 23%. Liberal Dems on 6% and TIG on 18%.

Re the best Prime Minister it's still 39% Theresa May and 16% Jeremy Corbyn. 42% not sures.

The new figs should be out imminently.Despite the trend is the positive that a coalition of the others could form a majority?

last weeks figures

The answer is simple to that conundrum. I won't vote Labour under Corbyn. And I suspect that many lifelong Labour voters like me feel the same. Dump him. Put someone like Cooper in. I'd vote for them again. Replace him with someone like John Macdonald and I still won't vote Labour.

Strange that people complain about the negative consequences of Brexit but seem content with a Tory government for eternity.

The independents were always going to split the opposition parties and not the Tories. Very shortsighted and desperate.

prettybird / tatiana
I buy a brand called Unisa (Spanish) - very similar "look" to those. They are around £130 a pair but my favourite pair are now 5 years old and I wear them probably 60 times a year so on the VFM per wearing stakes they are a bargain

belini
DH and I were chatting to an old friend last night - Corbyn has changed the rules in the party (thanks Millibrain for facilitating that) to make him almost impossible to remove.

Frankgrimes
I'm waiting to see what the May elections bring ..... its the footsoldiers who determine where the parties go. It could be "interesting"

Strange that Labour supporters feel that people will vote Labour when Corbyn and his clique are in charge
and when they keep telling us that anti-semitism is just fake news whipped up by the Tory media

It doesn't work

I'm another who won't consider Labour while Corbyn is the leader
So those keeping him as leader are the ones being short-sighted & desperate

I'm in the floating centre - but to get a majority, Labour need votes like mine.

Also, there are many lifelong Labour supporterr who won't vote for them until there is a more moderate leader,
with the will to tackle anti-semitism & misogyny in the party.

My constituency is a marginal. It has changed hands many times.
Whichever party owns the middle wins it.
At the moment, if my MP became a Tigger I think he'd keep the seat.

Labour Youth are as divided and seem to be replicating the main party.
^REVEALED: How the ruling body of Labour's youth wing is tearing itself apart

Politically isolated on the Young Labour national executive committee, Mirwitch has been forced to accept she has little to no control over not only the group's Twitter account, but almost everything it says and does.

Miriam Mirwitch
@mrwtch
To make crystal clear, I did not send the tweet about Joan Ryan from the Young Labour Twitter account and I utterly condemn it.

Multiple members of YL committee have access to the account.

In March last year, LSE graduate Mirwitch won a surprise victory when she beat the Momentum-backed candidate for the chairmanship, Leigh Drennan, by fewer than 100 votes. But Momentum hopefuls secured almost all the other seats on its board, including that of the crucial youth representative who gets to sit on the National Executive Committee of the central Labour party - won by Lara McNeill. Mirwitch - a former Young Labour disability officer who backed Owen Smith in the 2016 Labour leadership election - has since struggled to put any of her plans into action against a committee which rejects almost every proposal she makes. Not only that, but the splits have led to angry exchanges and fuelled anti-semitic abuse online against the Jewish 25-year-old.

It was centrism that led to Brexit. Having a social democratic mandate is not hard left or extreme. It’s certainly some of the media that have peddled the idea that it is. I suppose if you’re comfortably off you dont need to worry about austerity or the consequences of the WA much.

Well if Mirwitch is too technologically thick to know how to take back control of a multi user twitter account, she does not deserve the job.

Threatening Corbyn haters with a permanent Tory government doesn't work. I won't vote for Corbyn led Labour. I'm a Remain voting woman with Jewish and Irish heritage and a long memory of what Militant tried to do to Labour. Corbyn and his history (which I also remember). Why would I vote for someone who is, at best, fuzzy on antisemitism, transactivism and who happily shakes hands with terrorist sympathisers while also trying to take credit for a dead woman's work (Mo Mowlem).

It’s not “threatening” is it? Its reality. The UK could have voted Miliband in 2015. They didn’t. I think a lot of leave voters would be happy with an eternal Tory government and I think some remainers will inadvertently provide it.

My view, on the present course Britain is on,the UK will break up anyway.

Ghost I disagree, austerity led to Brexit.

It's not inadvertent. I know the consequences of not voting Labour. Labour knows it too and persists with this clown. I lived through Thatcher. I know what it means to have a shit Opposition to a Tory government.
I voted Labour under Milliband. Flawed as he was, he was, at least ok as a Labour leader and potential PM.

Another type of Windrush, this time on commonwealth servicemen. It's almost like May is still in charge of something the Home Office...

To make the full set Tories should try that shit on the Irish workers like my Mum invited to do the NHS work that no UK person would do.