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Brexit

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2019 21:11

March 12th (or earlier): Second vote on May deal.
March 13th: Vote on No Deal if WA fails to pass on the 12th
March 14th: Vote on an a50 extension.

The March 14th vote is the most important, though the others are still important and we have no idea how nuclear the ERG or the moderates will ultimately go in terms of blowing the Tory Party apart.

Even if May's Deal does pass we need an extension. We've known this a long time, from a British POV, but the EU have now explicitly said that they will need a technical extension to ratify the WA if we now approve it. We also need an extension if we decide to go for No Deal because we will have legal chaos as the HoC hasn't passed the necessary legislation for No Deal either. But this isn't the EU's problem...

With feelings in the EU becoming more bitter the idea of an extension might be more difficult to come by, if May hasn't passed the WA by the 29th March though.

The EU and May are therefore both aligned with a mutual interest to get the WA passed by 29th March for this reason. Which might mean the EU do play tough on granting us an extension (at least initially) if we formally ask for one on the 14th March in order to help persuade the HoC vote for May's deal before the deadline of the 29th March.

I think we should expect the WA to fail to pass on the 12th March. There just aren't the numbers for it. Then hardball politics from the EU commence on the 14th - it might well be a long extension or nothing. May will then try and do MV3 before the 29th March. If it passes, May's happy and the EU are happy. If it fails... well... I think the EU might give way to a shorter extension at that point, but very begrudgingly. And the idea will be for MV4 or the July cliff edge.

Until then we sit waiting forever for the sun to start going around the earth and for pigs to fall out of the sky.

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67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 19:54

When in New York many years ago a sales assistant called me "maam".

I was 24! I was deeply offended!

borntobequiet · 07/03/2019 19:59

I heard that idiot Cox burbling on about his codpiece in the Commons. So fucking embarrassing. He really deserves a good slap from someone.
(I don’t often swear like this but that deserves it.)

Taytocrisps · 07/03/2019 20:07

I know it's old news at this point but I've attached a link to an Irish Times article regarding Karen Bradley's apology www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/karen-bradley-apologises-for-comments-over-troubles-deaths-1.3817529

Must have been an awkward meeting between Karen Bradley and Simon Coveney last night!

1tisILeClerc · 07/03/2019 20:16

A little something to get you in the mood for 30 March.
How to do customs controls.
Someone seems to have dubbed it in German for some reason!

prettybird · 07/03/2019 20:17

Cox said unless the backstop could be shown to be a temporary arrangement, it risked breaching protocol 1, article 3 of the convention, which protects the rights of people to vote in order to choose their legislature.

This would be on the same day that Hunt told an audience in Glasgow that Westminster wouldn't allow a 2nd Indyref Hmm

Indyref2: Jeremy Hunt says UK government will refuse permission
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

IrenetheQuaint · 07/03/2019 20:19

"The level of disinterest about brexshit that I am aware of in my community and in my personal life is....baffling."

My friends and family are all very politically engaged, and I work in an organisation linked to the government which has been and will be affected by Brexit.

In both arenas I've spent 2.5 years discussing and analysing Brexit in massive detail... but recently everyone (including me) seems to have run out of energy to talk about it any more. It's weird, really.

67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 20:30

irene I sort of get it. It's been 2.5 years for me too and it just feels...pointless now.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 07/03/2019 20:46

More stuff that's happened today: twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1103674916069670912?s=21
Leadsom says that concern about Islamophobia in the Tory party should be referred to the Foreign office Hmm

RedToothBrush · 07/03/2019 20:58

Who the fuck can afford L K Bennett?

It's aimed at the 30 - 50 year old market I guess. 5 to 10 years ago it would have been doing great but that market is increasingly struggling as that group has less disposable income than they did 10 years ago and purchasing patterns change Younger people are buying less 'stuff', often not just for financial reasons but also cos they are living in smaller accommodation so have less room for things and instead prefer spending money on 'experiences'

L K Bennett is just about the most expensive retailer on the High Street. £250+ for a pair of very plain high heels, that you could get something very similar for well under £50. £300 for a full priced dress or a mere £200 + in the sale? Anyone?

The psychologically of being over £200 whilst on sale is an issue. £200+ even on sale does not scream 'bargin must shop there then'. Its more 'fuck me, that's still daylight bloody robbery!'.

Their pricing put them touching designer prices whilst still most definitely being a high street brand. They fell in between the crack, and I do highly question their sales model for this reason. They have not worked out that market has fundamentally changed. This one strikes me as being very unbrexit related and not to do with the changes the internet has brought with it either. Its a pure failure to understand the market is changing. Plain old fashioned, bad management.

'Cos Kate shops there' seemed to be their only real selling point. And the two above named shops also have that too.

I honestly think I know one person who might consider shopping there. That's it. It's beyond my comprehension how they've kept going as long as they have.

Will JL go the same way? That generational line at around 37 is going to have a big effect...

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DGRossetti · 07/03/2019 21:04

Did anyone read the astonishment as Cox wibbled on about the Man On The Clapham Omnibus ?

www.ft.com/content/f10bcf8a-40d7-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44

(paywalled).

I particularly enjoyed the Eurocrat who described Cox(famed for a deep loud voice)s appearance as Boom and bust ....

SwedishEdith · 07/03/2019 21:06

I only ever see L K Bennett recommended on here. It's a very particular high earning demographic - definitely not me! Very Amber Rudd, in fact.

DGRossetti · 07/03/2019 21:06

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-cabinet-resign-karen-bradley-amber-rudd-andrea-leadsom-a8812946.html

independent.co.uk
Theresa May’s cabinet in chaos as three top ministers under fire over gaffes
Joe Watts Political Editor @JoeWatts_
11-14 minutes

Theresa May’s cabinet has descended into disarray after three of her most senior ministers made gaffes that left them facing calls to apologise or resign.

A raft of senior Irish and Northern Irish politicians demanded the PM’s close ally Karen Bradley quit over inflammatory comments about killings by British soldiers during the Troubles.

Pensions secretary Amber Rudd apologised minutes after sparking outrage by referring to Labour’s Diane Abbott as a “coloured woman”.
We’ll tell you what’s true. You can form your own view.

From 15p €0.18 $0.18 USD 0.27 a day, more exclusives, analysis and extras.

That came hours after Andrea Leadsom was criticised after she said it was the Foreign Office’s responsibility to help define Islamophobia in Britain – which critics claimed meant she was implying “British Muslims are foreigners”.

It comes against a general backdrop of malaise, with the government’s apparently dwindling chances of securing a meaningful alteration to the Brexit withdrawal agreement ahead of critical votes next week.

If Ms May loses another Commons vote on her deal, her executive could be stripped of its control of the Brexit process, with MPs taking the reins.

Ms Bradley apologised on Thursday morning for saying deaths caused by soldiers and police in Northern Ireland were not crimes, comments she later described as “misguided and ill-judged”.

Dr James Reilly, a senator and former deputy leader of Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael party, said in a sitting on Thursday morning: “I too decry and deplore the comments made by Karen Bradley. I fail to see how she can ever regain the confidence of nationalists and families of those who suffered through the Troubles.

“Have we forgotten Bloody Sunday? Have we forgotten the Miami [Show]Band? Have we forgotten so many other issues? I think she really does need to consider her position.”

Independent senator Frances Black followed up saying: “The hurt that Karen Bradley caused to families of those killed by state forces during the conflict was disgraceful; for her to say that the massacres of innocent people on Bloody Sunday, Ballymurphy and others was ‘dignified and appropriate’ is beyond belief, she needs to resign.”

Calls for Ms Bradley’s resignation also came from Northern Ireland. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood accused Ms Bradley of “publicly interfering with the rule of law”.

Ms Rudd made her comments about Ms Abbott in a radio interview later in the day, immediately leading the Labour politician to accuse the cabinet minister of using “outdated, offensive” language.

Referring to abuse suffered by politicians, the pensions secretary said: “It’s worst of all if you are a coloured woman.

“I know that Diane Abbott gets a huge amount of abuse, and I think that’s something we need to continue to call out.”

Irish Government Senator & former Fine Gael deputy leader James Reilly calls on Karen Bradley to quit

Labour MP Danielle Rowley said the cabinet minister had undermined “an important point about abuse”, adding: “She clearly gets her language from the same bygone era as her abhorrent welfare policies.”

But Ms Rudd quickly apologised, posting on her Twitter account minutes later: “Mortified at my clumsy language and sorry to [Diane Abbott]. My point stands: that no one should suffer abuse because of their race or gender.”

Historically, the term “coloured” was associated with enforced racial segregation in the United States during the era of Jim Crow laws – with African Americans forced to use “coloured-only” public services.

The work and pensions secretary returned to cabinet in late 2018 with the welfare brief, after she was forced to resign as home secretary during the fallout from the Windrush scandal.

Amber Rudd calls Diane Abbott ‘coloured woman’ when explaining abuse women get in politics

Ms Leadsom’s gaffe came in response to Labour’s Naz Shah MP, who asked about calls by more than 50 cross-party parliamentarians to adopt an official definition of Islamophobia.

In her response, the minister said: “She raises a very important point about whether we should seek a definition of Islamophobia and I would encourage her to perhaps seek an adjournment debate in the first instance so she can discuss with Foreign Office officials.”

Ms Shah said she was “shocked” by the response and that Ms Leadsom’s response had implied that “British Muslims are foreigners”.

Andrea Leadsom encourages debate on Islamophobia to be run past foreign office

The comments come amid the row over antisemitism in the Labour Party and Islamophobia in the Conservatives, but created the impression of a government struggling to get its message across.

Ms May will aim to try and get the cabinet in line ahead of next week, when the government faces a series of critical votes in the Commons which could spell the end of her key policies on Brexit and even the collapse of her administration.

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SwedishEdith · 07/03/2019 21:09

Rudd says online EU registration will be 'as easy as shopping at LK Bennett'
Home secretary compares application system for EU citizens to setting up account with luxury fashion retailer.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/23/amber-rudd-online-eu-registration-system-lk-bennett

DGRossetti · 07/03/2019 21:11

Rudd says online EU registration will be 'as easy as shopping at LK Bennett'

You really couldn't make it up.

We are living in a simulation ....

Westminstenders: Waiting for the vote that never comes
67chevvyimpala · 07/03/2019 21:21

Duchess's of cambridge is a fan, I believe.

borntobequiet · 07/03/2019 21:22

Very prescient, what with the UK about to go out of business and all.

GaspodeWonderCat · 07/03/2019 21:22

Irene, 67 ..."The level of disinterest about brexshit that I am aware of in my community and in my personal life is....baffling."

I feel it too. Been following these boards, the news etc since forever (it seems). And exhausted by it all. Arranging deckchairs whilst the iceberg hoves into view ...

22 days till the biggest crisis since Suez and sweet FA is happening. Going for the whisky stash to stop the tears.

Bellini - thanks to your preps lots of cat food and whisky (the important stuff) has been stockpiled.

Thanks to all regular & irregular posters for the advice, info etc over the last few years. Roll on April 1st when it will/won't have happened and we will/will not know what is happening in the next year/decade ... or not ...

prettybird · 07/03/2019 21:36

Actually, the more I think about the hypocrisy and doublethink of Cox's and Hunt's positions (the Government challenging the backstop on the basis that it breaches NI citizens' human EHCR right for self-determination but simultaneously saying it would refuse a Section 30 notice for Indyref2 Confused) the more Angry I get. But I suppose I shouldn't be surprised Grin

But on the other hand, Cox is providing Nicola Sturgeon with a good approach to take in future Wink

Littlespaces · 07/03/2019 21:36

Gordon Brown is suggesting a year to think about it all and consult everyone, so we may still be here for a while yet.

www.itv.com/news/2019-03-07/gordon-brown-calls-for-12-month-delay-to-brexit/

SwedishEdith · 07/03/2019 21:40

The level of disinterest about brexshit that I am aware of in my community and in my personal life is....baffling.

Same. Hence why long extension and revoke is attainable. Hear lots more of "Shall we just pretend it never happened and we'll never mention it again and we can all just get on with our lives?"

But I learnt this Max Planck quote today (paraphrased) "Truth never triumphs—its opponents just die out."

prettybird · 07/03/2019 21:41

ODFOB AngryAngry

Oh Do Fuck Off Brown

Like Farage, he keeps on popping up like a bad penny Hmm

Amongst other things, I've never forgiven him for his "banning boom and bust" and his interference during the Indyref Angry

RedToothBrush · 07/03/2019 22:04

None of these MPs have a clue about anything do they?

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NoWordForFluffy · 07/03/2019 22:13

How can so many ignorant people get into such positions of power? Staggering.

RedToothBrush · 07/03/2019 22:19

amp.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/07/life-expectancy-slumps-by-five-months?__twitter_impression=true
Life expectancy falls by six months in biggest drop in UK forecasts
Decline in longevity in England and Wales ‘a trend as opposed to a blip’, experts say

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RedToothBrush · 07/03/2019 22:23

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-majority-in-north-unhappy-with-handling-of-brexit-by-may-and-dup-1.3818264?mode=amp
Irish Times poll: Majority in North unhappy with handling of Brexit by May and DUP
Large majority would back staying in EU in second vote while one-third want border poll

Two-thirds of all voters (67 per cent) say the DUP is doing a bad job of representing Northern Ireland at Westminster, while 69 per cent of people – including 57 per cent of those from a Protestant background – are dissatisfied with DUP leader Arlene Foster

And

Strikingly, the poll shows that in the event of a hard Brexit, more voters would favour checks on goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland than would favour checks on the Border.

Almost half of all voters (48 per cent) disagree with Northern Ireland leaving the EU on the same terms as the UK if it means border checks in Ireland.

But 59 per cent say they want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the Border – even if it means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and the North.

But by far the biggest majority (67 per cent) is in support of a very soft Brexit where the UK stays in the EU single market and the customs union to avoid the need for checks anywhere.

Northern voters are divided on whether there should be another Brexit referendum; but if there was one, they would vote overwhelmingly (59 per cent) to remain in the EU.

While voters are clearly at odds with the approach of the DUP to Brexit, they are also critical of Sinn Féin.

Just 13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent.

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