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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
24
mrslaughan · 23/02/2019 22:47

Thanks Red!!

MangoSplit · 23/02/2019 22:48

Thanks Red

EweSurname · 23/02/2019 22:50

Thanks red! Star

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 23/02/2019 22:50

thanks red

LonelyandTiredandLow · 23/02/2019 22:50

Thanks Red
Regal flat fish flag

bellinisurge · 23/02/2019 22:54

Brace Brace Brace. Again. Thank you, Red.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:58

According to the 'elephant trap' story in the telegraph, Hammond and Liddington are now pressing May to ask for an A50 extention so she isn't defeated in the Commons.

OP posts:
InterchangeableEmma · 23/02/2019 22:59

Thanks Red

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/02/2019 23:00

I'm going to try and remain one more day fairly brexit free before pushing off into the deep end again.
Thanks Red.

HazardGhost · 23/02/2019 23:00

Ta red

SusanWalker · 23/02/2019 23:05

Thank you red and everyone else on this thread. It's making me feel less alone. I don't have anyone else to discuss it with. Mainly because the only other person I speak to is my sister who voted leave. And I don't like bringing it up as I love her and I don't want us to fall out over it. I'm pretty sure from the few things she's said she regrets voting leave, so I don't think me rubbing it in would help either.

lonelyplanetmum · 23/02/2019 23:07

We visited Spain for half term, probably for the last time as EU citizens - so thank you or muchas gracias to RTB.

The time has come,' the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of Cooper - Boles - and Tiggers - traps...
Of places, mats - and kings.

SparklySneakers · 23/02/2019 23:14

PMK

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 23:15

Westminster Voting Intention:

With Corbyn as Leader (Changes with Oct 2018):

CON: 39% (-4)
LAB: 31% (-9)
TIG: 11% (+11)
LDM 5% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-1)

Without Corbyn as Leader:

LAB: 40%
CON: 37%
TIG: 7%
LDM: 6%
UKIP: 3%

Via @DeltapollUK, 21-22nd Feb.

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lonelyplanetmum · 23/02/2019 23:17

😮 😯 😲 ! 11% in one week!

A week is a long time in politics!

OlennasWimple · 23/02/2019 23:17

Thanks again Red - you're a Star

Lisette1940 · 23/02/2019 23:20

PMK. Ta muchly Red. Thanks for all your hard work. Complimentary glass Wine

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 23:25

By Matthew Parris.
On May. The deaths tar of politics.

It's Brutal.

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
OP posts:
Lisette1940 · 23/02/2019 23:34

He's not mincing words, is he?

wherearemychickens · 23/02/2019 23:40

It really is, isn't it. He's not holding back there.

wheresmymojo · 23/02/2019 23:45

PMK

Triglesoffy · 23/02/2019 23:47

It’s so depressing Sad

Peregrina · 23/02/2019 23:48

Re the Parris article - Theresa May did create the mess. A much more conciliatory or skillful politician, or even one more crafty like Harold Wilson, would have handled it differently.

There were others too who thought "Theresa's doing a good job",( a statement overhead by DH), but then she went and botched the unnecessary election. This seemed to be the turning point when things started not to go her way, and again, a skillful politician could have avoided this. IMO she believed the polls and the opportunity to stick it to Labour was too good to pass up.

The Labour anti-semitism row also puzzles me; misogynist yes, that's Labour, but I wonder if this is another way of getting at Corbyn?The Blairite PLP had first had a go at a coup which they botched. Then there was an unrelenting hostile press until the last election, but he did much better than expected. So now, anti-semitism, which is a charge much more likely to stick, but I still can't believe that Labour is more anti-semitic than the Tories. I should add that I have never lived anywhere with very large Jewish populations, to my knowledge.

Weezol · 23/02/2019 23:51

Tench coaster monarch

colouringinpro · 24/02/2019 00:07

Bracing. Thanks Red and all you lovely people who provide solace in this time of mayhem.