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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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SparklySneakers · 27/02/2019 18:22

@Littlespaces you could t make it up could you??!! Batshittery of the highest order.

Littlespaces · 27/02/2019 18:28

Crazy times.

I think DGRossetti is possibly correct that we could form a better Government form this site. It wouldn't be a high hurdle.

Littlespaces · 27/02/2019 18:29

from

RedToothBrush · 27/02/2019 18:32

Hey, red have you accepted the house offer then ?

Yes! We have indeed! Solictors contacted for a quote (which is irrelevant as we are going to use them whatever, as they are good and we've used them before and trust them and I'm not going to be tight on that one as experience tells me its a bad idea) so its all a bit eeekkk.

Just have to find somewhere to go now!!! And sort the mortgage (cries at the thought of that) And hope that DS gets the school we want otherwise its going to throw a proper spanner in the works as we'll have decided what we are buying by then. And we need to avoid all very Brexitty looking days for completion. I am NOT looking forward to any of this. If it wasn't Brexitty stressful enough. Its also rather scuppered most of my stockpiling as moving it all just isn't viable, so we will have to use it over the next few weeks. I'm HOPING we will get an extension for that reason alone!

All the houses we are considering have no chain, and our buyers have no chain, so if it does goes through, it looks like its going to be quick once we choose which one we want. So I want to hit the ground running with the packing, as its going to me doing the whole lot by the look of it.

It means I might be a bit quieter for the next couple of weeks until I at least get on top of it all. I will be around, and if anyone @s me, I should pick it up pretty quickly.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 27/02/2019 18:50

Tonight's vote is just about to happen. The government are just summing up now. I think it starts at 7pm

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3519675-Westminstenders-Mays-Deal-or-No-Deal?watched=1
New Thread just before it starts.

OP posts:
AutumnCrow · 27/02/2019 18:52

I've got it on the tv, Red. See you on new thread.

TheElementsSong · 27/02/2019 18:52

Congratulations on the house offer RTB!

The80sweregreat · 27/02/2019 18:58

'Brexit crisis 'on sky. The bbc has gone with another Trump story!

GaspodeWonderCat · 27/02/2019 19:10

The80sweregreat 'Brexit crisis 'on sky. The bbc has gone with another Trump story! To be fair to the BBC it is a HUGE story and may be the start of impeachment against Trump ...

Parker231 · 27/02/2019 19:15

Labour lost their vote - as expected

EweSurname · 27/02/2019 19:22

People’s vote is com...

Oh, corbyn’s just retweeted this

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
Sostenueto · 27/02/2019 19:30

SNP list their vote on ' not leaving EU without a deal under any circumstances' so still too many willing to leave without a deal.Sad

FishesaPlenty · 27/02/2019 20:07

i.e. if the HoC votes against No Deal, then votes that she must request an extension,
*she could claim that her request alone satisfies this vote,
because they didn't specifically tell her to Revoke if all else fails

In which case surely she has to revoke - there already having been a vote that we can't leave on March 29th without a deal? Failing to get an extension (hopefully) doesn't extinguish the requirements of the previous, entirely separate vote on no deal.

Assuming that the wording of the motions/amendments doesn't have this exact eventuality covered of course...

TalkinPeece · 27/02/2019 21:06

Today at work ....
^Germany will demand a trade deal with the UK after Brexit"
R i g h t

EweSurname · 27/02/2019 21:50

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Corbyn- “We will back a public vote in order to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit or a disastrous no deal outcome', and push for "other available options to prevent those outcomes, including a close economic relationship based on our credible alternative plan or a general election”

SalrycLuxx · 28/02/2019 06:28

To be fair to the BBC it is a HUGE story and may be the start of impeachment against Trump ...

True. And the Brexit nonsense is frankly hard to follow and news on it likely to be out of date ten minutes later!

BigChocFrenzy · 28/02/2019 17:06

Fishes It is unclear whether the HoC can legally force the PM to take a particular action wrt an international treaty,
as treaties have constitutionally until now been the prerogative of the PM / the government.

The vote against No Deal would pile political pressure onto her, if very large

However, there is probably insufficient time to go through the courts to try to make it legally binding - and the courts might not want to get involved and take the blame.

Also, judging by how she - and to be fair previous PMs - use every dodge to avoid doing something they don't want to,
I expect May could claim that especially having the 2 votes on successive days meant that MPs could have been more specific if they chose.

She could certainly claim they didn't instruct her exactly HOW to avoid No Deal,
if they don't specify Revoke or asking for a longer extension to enable a PV

It's no good the HoC hinting at what they want: they have to spell it out

The EU would probably grant the extension, but if they don't,
whether we Revoke depends on whether May really prefers that to a No Deal Brexit

TalkinPeece · 28/02/2019 17:18

Salryc
The Democrats will not impeach Trump.
He is more useful to them as a destroyer of the GOP who can be voted out soon .....

Yaralie · 28/02/2019 18:20

George who???

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