Westminstenders: The Rebellion

[RedToothBrush]

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

sos Jewish voters have traditionally looked to Labour and supported the party over many decades especially over rights for other groups.
Hence why they feel so betrayed now.

Tory racism is very much related to colour and especially against muslims
so people in minority ethnic groups who normally vote for them are usually voting on other issues.

However, even back in MrsT's time, I remember Leon Brittan and Jewish groups saying how proud they were that 4 out of the 20 members of her Cabinet were Jewish.

Over the last few years though, Jewish voters have been more voting against Labour anti-semitism that they or their social circle have experienced, rather than for Tories
There has been a huge swing in the last decade, from a group that were before pretty solid Labour
and it has actually affected the results in a few seats.

Labour are talking over people, instead of listening
Telling them this Labour anti-semitism problem doesn't exist, when it contradicts the rl experience of many doesn't convince them
Neither does ramping up vicious social media attacks on those who have left, or on Jewish MPs & members who haven't - yet.

What would turn the tide is to concentrate on taking action against the institutional anti-semitism, not denying that it exists

{Two of the research contracts are to monitor news and social media reports about Brexit for the Department for Exiting the European Union.

One stipulates it wants "accurate media monitoring data from across the 27 EU countries".}

This alone is very worrying, using the UK as a 'back door' into the EU for 'data'.
The USA is not a 'best buddy' of the EU and can't be trusted.

Hence why the EU have been as strict in the negotiations about keeping their rules for data protection, as they are about keeping rules for goods etc

This alone is very worrying, using the UK as a 'back door' into the EU for 'data'.

Unlikely to happen. The UK either maintains EU privacy regulations and enforces them, or get's no data. The UK is already on the naughty step about it's laissez-faire attitude to data security (remember Javid has had to advise the security service they'll lose access to the EU security database when the UK leaves). As a 3rd country, the UK will be required to have a rock-solid framework in place.

The biggest loser in a US-EU spat will the the UK as a 3rd country.

Yes, the Department for Exiting the European Union is the most corrupt and dodgy department I can remember in politics. I'd not be at all surprised if they are using public funds for ever closer ties with US. Propaganda.

I also just remembered reading about Tommy Robinson/Yaxley wotsit saying to his supporters to not attack the camera/news reporters "yet" (ie. give us publicity until we grow) which reminded me of Trump rallies and the way the press is treated in US. It's all feeling very surreal.

Prettybird
{In memoriam feline queen}

DG but if we can't see what the trade talks are (as I posted up thread) I think Fox is courting disaster with EU to blame them (bloody standards again!) when they say we haven't been disclosing US trade talks. Then we are in a situ where we HAVE to rely on US trade.

Re the data - they would need access to the databases to work in those areas. If I was US I'd be using whatever I could find while I had the very rare chance. I doubt UK has thought through that or it has been used as a bonus bartering chip. How could EU possibly stop us using them, even if they were concerned, at such late stage in the proceedings without looking like a tyrant?

It used to be a UK government 'pastime', the 'lose your laptop on the train/bus/backseat of unlocked cars. Being on the 'naughty step' doesn't seem to bother the Prime Minister so why should anyone be trusted?

Labour are talking over people, instead of listening

Someone tried to recruit me to the Labour party back in the 1980s and as far as I am concerned this is what they always did. That's why I didn't join, I was being talked at and told what I ought to think.

No Tory has ever tried to recruit me, so I can't comment on them.

How could EU possibly stop us using them, even if they were concerned, at such late stage in the proceedings without looking like a tyrant

At the simplest level, change the password !

The EU won't care about "looking like a tyrant" (a loaded word to use in US company, by the way - read their constitution). The will care that they are seen to be protecting the privacy and security of their citizens. And EU->US data flow is already precarious, thanks to Max Schrems. If the EU decided that US privacy controls weren't up to snuff, that would be Facebook, Google and Twitter off the table for a start.

As noted previously, a lot of that data flow is so embedded that it's hard to know what will break when it's turned off. And with systems being inter-inter-connected, you could see a cascade failure across the board.

Labour are talking over people, instead of listening

If the vast majority of you voters "always vote Labour" why on earth invest any time and effort in listening to them ? I wouldn't. Sign 'em up, and then trebles all round. Others may not, but that's their lookout.

The more loyal you are to a party, the less they give a shit what you think. A policy made official by Theresa Mays stance that one-time Leave voters opinions count more than the opinions of people who have engaged with politics all their life.

Non-TIG cross party consensus

Antoinette Sandbach
@Sandbach
If as reported the PM is going to pull this weeks vote it would breach a solumn undertaking made at the dispatch box and would be an act showing utter contempt of Parliament

Jess Phillips
@jessphillips
Agree with Antoinette. Theresa May cannot keep kicking away the problem until we are left without a choice. She must find her spine and use it.

Eddie Marsan wrote a piece for the new European saying the same thing about labour, but wrt working class people.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/eddie-marsan-corbyn-betraying-working-class-1-5846443

I posted this on the last thread before I realised it was over because it's a little-known piece of Welsh history : The persecution of Jews has been far-reaching and widespread. Here in south Wales there were serious anti-Jewish riots, especially in Tredegar, back in 1911 - not widely known about these days. It seems to have been the case that, as so often happens, the Jewish population were made scapegoats for the social and economic problems that the area faced. I was informed by my Twitter antagonist that anti-semitism in the Labour Party didn't exist and was just Tory propaganda. I pointed out that having watched the anti semitism debate in the H of C live, it was principally Labour MPs that I saw talking about their own personal experience. I don't doubt that there is also racism on the Conservative side: we need to recognise prejudice wherever it concerns, including our own prejudices which as John Barnes pointed out so eloquently in Newsnight, we all have. Unless we do that we can't hope to move beyond our various -isms.

Surely May will not pull the vote again?

Theresa May funks Brexit vote as cabinet splits

Rivals accuse Rudd of leading Commons revolt

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-funks-brexit-vote-as-cabinet-splits-z86q87txk

A vicious cabinet war erupted last night over a plot by senior ministers to delay Brexit, as Theresa May looked certain to shelve plans for a Commons vote on her deal this week.

Five cabinet colleagues rounded on Amber Rudd, calling for her to be sacked after she publicly threatened to defy the prime minister by voting to delay article 50. The work and pensions secretary was singled out by cabinet colleagues as the ringleader of a cross-party campaign to stop Brexit. She was accused of seeking to further her own leadership ambitions.

The UK either maintains EU privacy regulations and enforces them, or get's no data.

Maybe not even its own data, still wondering what happens to UK offshored data in the event of a no deal ?

And thank you again Red for another fantastic summary of the current situation.

May has once again promised to go ahead with Brexit on 29th March - In a speech last night, "... Mrs May told activists: "Our focus to deliver Brexit must be absolute.

"We must not, and I will not, frustrate what was the largest democratic exercise in this country's history. In the very final stages of this process, the worst thing we could do is lose our focus " www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47346630

She seems utterly blinkered. As DP says, she can't see the hole in the ladder.

A blog by LSE which I saw last week (but currently seems to be off line although with the whole of LSE's blogs) stated that in 2010 over 50% of British Jews voted Labour.

A survey for the JC in 2017 just before the election suggested that only 13% were planning to vote Labour. And this does seem to be closely tied to Corbyn's leadership and him personally.

There are some interesting figures on Wikipedia here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_UK_Labour_Party#Surveys_and_studies

I note particularly the findings of the Campaign against Antisemitism. The 2017 survey on 'endorsing at least one antisemitic attitude' by party supporters:

30% Liberal Democrat supporters
32% Labour supporters
39% UKIP supporters
40% Conservatives supporters

It also found that
A majority believed that the Labour Party was too tolerant of antisemitism. Of those surveyed, 83% (in 2016 this was 87%) stated that racist sentiments were not adequately challenged by Labour MPs, party members, or supporters. CAA said "It is important to note that there is no evidence that parties' supporters favour a soft approach to antisemitism. The failure to deal robustly with antisemitism is more likely to be a result of a failure to recognize and understand the many guises of modern antisemitism"

Another survey by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research in 2017 looked specifically at antisemitism on the left.
The political left were no more likely than average to hold antisemitic attitudes, but were more likely to hold anti-Israel attitudes, especially those on the far-left. When discussing the link between political views and antisemitism, the study found that "Levels of antisemitism among those on the left-wing of the political spectrum, including the far-left, are indistinguishable from those found in the general population. Yet, all parts of those on the left of the political spectrum – including the 'slightly left-of-centre,' the 'fairly left-wing' and the 'very left-wing' – exhibit higher levels of anti Israelism than average." It continued: "However, in relation to anti-Israel attitudes, the very left-wing lead: 78% (75–82%) in this group endorse at least one anti-Israel attitude, in contrast to 56% in the general population, and 23% (19–26%) hold 6–9 such attitudes, in contrast to 9% in the general population. Elevated levels of anti-Israel attitudes are also observed in other groups on the political left: the fairly left-wing and those slightly left-of-centre. The lowest level of anti-Israel attitudes is observed in the political centre and among those who are slightly right-of-centre or fairly right-wing." The report however found that "...anti-Israel attitudes are not, as a general rule, antisemitic; but the stronger a person's anti-Israel views, the more likely they are to hold antisemitic attitudes. A majority of those who hold anti-Israel attitudes do not espouse any antisemitic attitudes, but a significant minority of those who hold anti-Israel attitudes hold them alongside antisemitic attitudes. Therefore, antisemitism and anti-Israel attitudes exist both separately and together.

As power in the Labour Party moves to the left, this dynamic is important and not insignificant. Leadership is important in tackling this.

Its also worth pointing out the effect of echo chambers: If you are in a left leaning echo chamber on social media, you might well not be seeing antisemitism from the right but see more embolden antisemitism from the Labour Left. If you are jewish and a member of the Labour Party, how would this feel to you in relative terms?

And lastly there is the finding of opinions about antisemitism of British Jews by a Jewish Chronicle survey. It asked to rank the degree of "antisemitism among the political party's members and elected representatives" between 1 (low) to 5 (high). The ranking was:

1.96 Conservatives
2.7 Liberal Democrats
3.64 UKIP
3.94 Labour

Its interesting how this differs from the findings of the CAA. Again, I direct you to the effects of echo chambers and the movement of the Labour Party to the left.

I think if the trends continue with polarisation of politics, then I don't see much chance of a reduction in anti-semitism or the jewish community feeling welcome in this country. It very much echoes the feelings here about the marginalisation of centrist / liberal views within British politics in recent years.

I suspect similar figures for 2019 might be even less pretty. What I've seen on twitter the problem with social media certainly seem to be worse than two years ago. I could simply point to the behaviour of Chris Williamson MP and how he has been leading by example to make my point. Leadership of this is crucial. If the leadership are seen not to recognise the concerns of the jewish community and do not understand the history of post war rights and the sensitivity and importance of diplomatic and very well thought out wording in political communications then the problem WILL get worse because its not being effectively challenged and instead lazy, ignorant language is being promoted.

Pmk

Tom Watson excellent on Marr today. As was Luciana Berger.

I could put this more simply:

Jewish community most effected by this = the liberal centre vote, particularly on the left. Which is where an above average percentage of the jewish community will sit, in comparison to the population as a whole, purely because of their history.

The more conservative elements of the Jewish community, will share other social values with the conservative right which have not collasped in the same way. Indeed this type of authoritarian thinking is perhaps gathering strength.

Its all about liberal v authoritarianism within British politics. And the Jewish population are liable to feel it more acutely as a community than many other groups.

I just wonder how long a scandal on data breach would take to come out...