Westminstenders: The Rebellion

[RedToothBrush]

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

DG Parliament is supreme if it enacts legislation, but if it simply passes a resolution, then the Government can ignore it - it shouldn't but it can. That's why Cooper Letwin was important, because it was about providing time for actual legislation rather than just promises.

Yy, I have learnt so much from the threads just wish that our MPs were as informed, I did get a reply from my labour MP but it was basically a lot of waffle very disappointing as she was newly elected at the last election, I still can’t quite decipher what/who she is backing.

Under international law, No Deal Brexit happens automatically, regardless of whether the UK has got itself into a complete Parliamentary logjam.

You know that.
I know that.

But I really don't think MPs know that. Remember, until one of our senior ministers saw it on a fucking map, he didn't even realise how close Calais and Dover were. If his grasp of primary-school geography is so pisspoor, one can only despair at the word soup his brain would make of more complex issues.

We've seen over the past two years that for the vast majority of MPs, Brexit has been the ultimate circle jerk. Even now, I am struggling to match the level of debate to my understanding of reality.

If May leaves it until 11pm on 29 March to revoke, then she will have left it a minute too late

DG Parliament is supreme if it enacts legislation, but if it simply passes a resolution, then the Government can ignore it - it shouldn't but it can. That's why Cooper Letwin was important, because it was about providing time for actual legislation rather than just promises.

Parliament can do whatever it wants. Whether the rest of the world abides by it - or even cares - is a different matter.

{If May leaves it until 11pm on 29 March to revoke, then she will have left it a minute too late}

On the basis that so far all announcements have been late from 5 minutes up to a week or more, plus lack of sleep and working to UK or EU time, I would put a few cents on it being too late.

Actually, thinking about it, I'm wrong: she would only have left it a second too late!

Under international law, No Deal Brexit happens automatically, regardless of whether the UK has got itself into a complete Parliamentary logjam.

Agreed, as it stands if nobody revokes or extends then no-deal happens automatically, whatever problems Parliament might be having. The issue is whether TM could ignore/circumvent a combination of a no-No-Deal vote and a no-extension vote.

The issue is whether TM could ignore/circumvent a combination of a no-No-Deal vote and a no-extension vote.

This is the woman who said the last defeat of the WA still indicated parliament was behind her ...

If TMs deal falls again she will immediately call a GE and close down Parliament thus stopping any more voting by HoC and we will exit brexit with no deal on the 29th March.

{This is the woman who said the last defeat of the WA still indicated parliament was behind her }

Not necessarily untrue. They are a hell of a long way behind her. Almost the wrong planet.

Well clearly she would ignore/circumvent anything she didn't want to do if it was at all possible. The issue is whether that is possible to start with - and whether she's actually been painted into exactly the corner she's always planned to get herself painted into.

Sos she might not get the 2/3rd commons approval to trigger a GE.

As it would bring us to a no-deal, unlikely she would.

The Tories also know that a no-deal will be disastrous for the economy and they will get the blame by a majority of the UK.... it just isn't going to happen.

At least your MPs reply to you.

I have tried three extremely polite e mails but he doesn't even bother responding. Not even a generic reply. He is widely thought to be hopeless.

jas The HoC may not want No Deal Brexit, but they are sufficiently ignorant & arrogant to let it happen by default,
assuming that if they vote that No Deal can't happen, then it won't

No Deal happens automatically unless the UK passes the WA / Revokes / Requests an extension - which might be refused

Some in the HoC don't seem to have grasped this yet

Regarding the FTPA, could May use the Henry VIII power to dissolve parliament for a GE if the MP’s vote against?

May can avoid any HoC request that is not specific

i.e. if the HoC votes against No Deal, then votes that she must request an extension,
she could claim that her request alone satisfies this vote,
because they didn't specifically tell her to Revoke if all else fails

If the EU either refuse, or make conditions such as EP elections that she won't accept, it is by no means clear that she has gone against the HoC vote

The problem is, we have insufficient time for a court to decide - the final refusal of the extension by the EU / May might be literally minutes before Brexit

Once we have Brexited, it is most unlikely that could be declared legally invalid just because the UK got itself into a constitutional wrangle.

The most that could happen is that the EU agree to a super-Fast Track Rejoin, on the grounds that Brexit did not follow the UK constitution / have consent of Parliament

So they'd wink, not blink
but I doubt if the HoC or the govt could organise itself to apply to Rejoin

Brexit imo, more likely she'd use Henry VII or Emergency powers to force the WA through.

If she calls a GE, then Parliament is dissolved weeks, i.e. until after Brexit

A GE means automatic No Deal Brexit, unless she Revokes, or requests - and is granted - an extension

I know the EU said before that they's extend for a GE, but their position generally on extension has hardened over the last few weeks
So they might not agree.

And of course, May might not ask - at least she would have got Brexit through

If she calls a GE, then Parliament is dissolved for 5 weeks,

I have tried three extremely polite e mails but he doesn't even bother responding.

I always advise people to use www.writetothem.com as it logs your email and builds up a tally of how MPs do/do not respond.

There's also www.theyworkforyou.com which is hand to keep an eye on your MPs activity or otherwise.

Looks like France and Spain will impose conditions before they agree to an extension. I imagine others will follow.

I think you are all giving May far too much credit. Right now, it's literally an hour at a time - I have just heard about Costa's resignation over an amendment that the government supports!

I'll try another couple of e mails using www.writetothem.com. Thanks.

news.sky.com/story/firm-at-centre-of-kfc-delivery-chaos-gets-no-deal-brexit-contract-11649856

Ms Lucas said: "In the event of a no-deal Brexit the government has just decided that imports of medical supplies are to be handled by the same company that forced hundreds of restaurants to close because it was incapable of delivering chicken to KFC.

Not very reassuring!

I've just emailed my MP - thanks for the reminder, DGR.