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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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Missbel · 24/02/2019 13:40

And the BBC and Peston twitter.com/Peston/status/1099657289081020416. If the moderates in the government really mean what they are saying, it's time they did something about it. I wish I was more optimistic.

OlennasWimple · 24/02/2019 13:41

Maybe I'm just being very simple, but if Corbyn wants to be PM he has to show that he can run his party effectively. But we see substantive and multiple failings regarding tackling anti-Semitism, running the disciplinary system and in advancing policies that would work in the real world (eg a totally non-interventionist foreign policy, bonkers tax proposals)

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 13:58

poster Quoting the Angry Voice, I see
A frequent source of attacks on Jewish Labour politicians
They are part of the problem.

Bower is a writer who has written very critical unauthorised biographies of several public figures, including Branson

Big difference between Bower & the Labour Party apparatchiks:
He's an individual, who isn't in any party organisation
Very different to an organisation that is institutionally anti-semitic

His parents were Jewish refugees

Rather like some black people I have met, he can be scathing about anyone who he feels aren't loyal to their own
Some e.g. make accusations of "Uncle Tom" about anyone who succeeds and whom they feel has become part of the system.

Many Jewish MPs, councillors and ordinary party members have complained about anti-semitism and how it has been minimised

Listen to the people who are being bullied.
Don't keep denying & minimising their lived experiences

Do you discount allegations of institutional racism against People of Colour, their real life experiences ?

Or do you only discount insititutional anti-semitism ?

Or just any allegations against labour of any kind of bullying ?

Even McDonnell & many other Labour MPs agree that anti-semitism should have been tackled properly
that it shouldn't have come to MPs being forced out - and hence being easily persuaded into defection.

I will never consider voting Labour while Corbyn is in charge, with his vile minimisation of anti-semitism & misogynyst bullying
Millions of other centrist voters - whom Labour need to ever win a GE - and indeed millions of traditional Labour voters now think the same.

So either Labour stops this denial and gets its house in order, or we will continue to have a Tory government for decades
That's Labour's choice

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 13:59

Shooting the messenger never works

Icantreachthepretzels · 24/02/2019 14:03

If the meaningful vote has been delayed (again) does that mean they won't be voting on all the amendments as well?

TalkinPeece · 24/02/2019 14:07

It is paywalled, but for those who like a good read, the paper edition is wonderful ...
an absolute demolition of Corbyn
www.economist.com/britain/2019/02/23/john-mcdonnell-labours-hard-man

Not that they think much of can kicker May either

dontcallmelen · 24/02/2019 14:09

Thank you Red PMK.
prettybird so sorry about your lovely cat.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 14:10

My dislike & distrust of Corbyn goes back to 1983, when he first became an MP
I didn't need to get any views about him from the media
I got them from the horse's mouth - or the horse's arse

I listened to what he was saying, decades before he had the remotest idea he would become labour leader,
what he has been saying throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, e.g.

.about the EU & its predecessors - which he has alway opposed -
.about his views of the former East Germany - ludicrous claims at the time that it was as modern & prosperous as the UK
.his praise for terrorist organisations and his lauding of dead terrorists, even while the terrorism is going on
.his continual excusing of anti-semitism and appearing on platforms with those who proclaim they want to wipe out the Jews, or who deny the Holocaust
.his support for Maduro blocking & burning humanitarian aid because he can't admit that Venezuelan socialism can't feed its people or provide medicines

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 14:29

Showing EU trade deals & agreements of different kinds around the world:

The heading "Current state of play" gives details of all these

ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/

There are three main types of agreements:

1	Customs Unions
â—¦	eliminate customs duties in bilateral trade
â—¦	establish a joint customs tariff for foreign importers.

2	Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements
â—¦	remove or reduce customs tariffs in bilateral trade.

3	Partnership and Cooperation Agreements
â—¦	provide a general framework for bilateral economic relations
â—¦	leave customs tariffs as they are
Westminstenders: The Rebellion
MarmotMorning · 24/02/2019 14:36

Right so the meaningful vote is postponed till 12 march. And TM says if it is passed we will therefore leave on 29 march with a deal.

But what about the Withdrawal BILL and legislation (to cover transition period) that will still need to be passed? That won't happen in time for the 29th?

Quintella · 24/02/2019 14:41

@jessphillips
Follow Follow @jessphillips
I'm feeling like I might stage some revolution this week take over parliament, engage my Nan's voice and tell everyone to pack in their nonsense. Rescind article 50 and get on with mending the very broken system. Grow a backbone Theresa May serve your goddamn country.

^^Sums up my feelings really

Motheroffourdragons · 24/02/2019 14:46

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Motheroffourdragons · 24/02/2019 14:47

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 14:51

Marmot If the WA is passed before 29 March, then May would request a short A50 extension to pass the WAIB
It is absolutely certain the EU would agree under those circumstances

Peregrina · 24/02/2019 14:54

How do Parliament take power away from May?

I can see that a future Parliament might well limit the power of the PM - but this is well into the future.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 14:54

Unless a majority of MPs vote by 29 March for Revoke / PV / extension

  • and they will need to organise & pass amendments for this on 12 March -

Then they are left with the choice of WA vs Remain

Peregrina · 24/02/2019 14:58

I thought the default was crash out?

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 14:58

peregrina That is the problem:

The legislature taking power to itself, to order the executive to take specific actions
would be something new in our constitutional process

It's not that it's impossible; it's just how to organise and make it legally watertight under such time pressure.

imo, at this they can only apply political pressure on the PM to take action,
show her that the alternatives are worse for her party unity
Very tough to do.

MarmotMorning · 24/02/2019 14:58

I know but TM is selling it that we will definitely leave on 29th.

I think most public don't realise that the proper legislation still needs to be passed. It's complex legislation that will have all sorts of political hurdles.

The extension will mean another cliff edge to pass this legislation

I wish we could just revoke but obvs not going to happen

67chevvyimpala · 24/02/2019 14:58

Jesus suffering fuck

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 15:00

Oops BAD Typo Blush

Then they are left with the choice of WA vs Remain No Deal

I suspect some MPs & voters believe my typo, though !

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 15:03

She can no longer achieve Brexit by 29 March,
unless she uses Henry VIII or declares an emergency and uses Emergency Powers to pass the WAIB without Parliament

That might appeal to her dictatorial streak
Alternatively, she may feel that once the WA is passed, she can get away politically with saying that the extra 2 months are just putting legal bumf in place for Brexit

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 15:07

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47348610

Another amendment has been tabled for Wednesday by Labour backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, calling for Mrs May's deal to be put to a public vote.

Speaking on Pienaar's Politics, shadow chancellor John McDonnell said:
"We've said to break the deadlock we're going to have to now start thinking about moving towards a public vote...
that will mean amendments coming up over this week."

He said he had met the pair, along with shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer to discuss the amendment, which he said he was "really attracted to".
But Mr McDonnell was looking to redraft it to to ensure it got backing from his own benches.

Motheroffourdragons · 24/02/2019 15:07

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MarmotMorning · 24/02/2019 15:09

Yes, both options will be appealing to her!

What do you you think the potential is for MPs to agree the WA but then quibble over the legislation in the Bill,?

Or is it just a formality to pass?