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Brexit
Original poster

Honestly - how likely is it now that Brexit will never happen?

345 replies

Crimson72 · 31/01/2019 08:30

There's just 57 days to go until we leave the EU.

Is there still a chance that Brexit will be stopped in some way, politicians will see sense, the whole thing will be called off and we will remain in the EU?

How likely is that to happen?

OP posts:
IroningMan · 31/01/2019 12:42

No one of them have the balls to stop it. They’re all too focused on their own self-interest.

This.

No one has the courage to say "It was a ridiculous idea to ask people who generally know little to nothing about politics and/or economics to make a decision that will have long lasting political and economic consequences. The vote was insanely close, the campaigns were illegally run, no one was properly told what they were voting for and the whole thing was the biggest political, social and economic mistake this country has made in a very long time."

At this point there's no win. Even if we pull out socially it's divided the country. Immigrants have been made to feel unwelcome and unvalued by racist assholes as well as the very politicians they voted for to represent their interests. The economic consequences are high as it will take a long time for the pound to recover. Politically it's also shown huge cracks and incompetences in BOTH major political parties.

Essentially we are fucked whatever happens it's just a case of how fucked are we at this point.

SillySallySingsSongs · 31/01/2019 12:45

With Corbyn going in with Milne, not Starmer and what he said after I believe there will be a deal that will get through.

There will be some that won't vote for it as they want it revoked and some that it won't be hard enough brexit, but most will go for it.

I also think it will be a harder brexit than Labours 'official' position bearing in mind Corbyn seems to have dumped Starmer unoficially, if not oficially.

SisterOfDonFrancisco · 31/01/2019 12:56

I also think that tm's wa will happen in the end. It's either that or delay of the leave date. She will manage to get enough labour rebels to support her plan. Then we have all the fun of future relationship negotiations, trade negotiations etc to look forward to!!!! No doubt we'll be worse off but thankfully the right wing media is at hand to provide distractions.

SalrycLuxx · 31/01/2019 13:14

So the EU doesn't want to export billions of pounds of goods to us?

They’ll still export billions of kinds worth to us. It will just cost more and for a period (until we put the right I frastructure in place) will be slower to arrive.

cloudtree · 31/01/2019 13:23

I think there's very little chance of us remaining. It makes me very very sad.

Just been listening to a no dealer on the radio asking a (non political) expert panel how long it will really take us to negotiate deals with other trading partners. Experts said realistically an absolute minimum of 2 years and up to 10 years.

cloudtree · 31/01/2019 13:24

And even leaving with a deal will put 20% on the cost of most food items due to customs charges, warehousing etc all pushing up the costs of the supermarkets (who then have to pass it on).

Yaralie · 31/01/2019 13:26

Let's not forget that the majority of the population are Remainers, and that has been shown to be the case in every poll over the last eighteen months. The average of the last six polls shows an 8% lead for Remain.

Everyone, or at least everyone who has been paying attention to the brexit scenario unfold, has become better informed. They now know that any kind of brexit will damage our country and that is why this brexit nonsense should be stopped.

Peregrina · 31/01/2019 14:16

Yes, a majority are Remainers now, but for some reason, this Referendum was different and its results must be cast in stone for at least two generations. Wink

mummmy2017 · 31/01/2019 14:36

Lol, you really are funny.
The majority whom bother to vote are the ones that matter, and how they vote...
Once you crack an egg it is impossible to put it back together.
The vote was cast, and there is not going to be a second vote as the result was going to be even stronger in favour of no deal out.
You see the people do want out of this message, not to be stuck in this message for ever.

mummmy2017 · 31/01/2019 14:36

Mess, not message... Auto correct fail. Again.

Bluntness100 · 31/01/2019 14:37

I think those pinning their hopes on a PV

Sorry, what does pv stand for?

I also think she will get it through in two weeks and we will leave, albeit a couple of weeks later than planned due to the work to be done to make it happen. I find it quite sad. It will take us a long time to be as rich as we are now, and pretending we have some huge might that makes us stronger than if we join forces with the other 26 countries is all a bit embarrassing now, even with a deal the billions we stand to lose v what we won't pay is way more.

I think many will get behind the deal to prevent us delaying exit, or cancelling it, so when it comes to those two straight choices, the majority will pick her deal. As said, we know already no deal isn't a choice, so it's her deal v stay/delay, and her deal will win.

There will be a lot of shit between now and then everyone swinging their dicks around, but ultimately that's what will happen.

SillySallySingsSongs · 31/01/2019 14:40

PV = Peoples Vote Smile

bellinisurge · 31/01/2019 14:40

But mummy2017, the people in Ireland supported a change in their constitution to enable GFA. Does the will of Irish people not count?

mummmy2017 · 31/01/2019 14:41

The EU said no.
Ireland said no.
Labour said no ..
But you say oh it is going to happen.

Random18 · 31/01/2019 14:41

A lot of people didn’t get to vote on their future.............
EU Nationals who have made UK their home.
And Brits living in EU.

Random18 · 31/01/2019 14:43

Should say some British residents living in E.U. countries never got to vote

Bluntness100 · 31/01/2019 14:55

Thanks silly sally, and agree that's very unlikely now.

NameChanger22 · 31/01/2019 15:06

I've been hoping for a PV. I've tried to stay optimistic. All along I've know we are headed for a no deal. I think there are some people in power who really want this, they want the chaos and the devastation, they get off on it. Some people in power are pure evil, they are not incompetent, that is a mask.

One thing you can be sure of, the real culprits will never be held accountable, they will point in the finger of blame wherever it suits, and most of the country will believe them. Too much brainwashing has happened for this to go any other way. Most of the time most people believe whatever they are told, without question. It's very, very sad.

Bluntness100 · 31/01/2019 15:10

The vote was cast, and there is not going to be a second vote as the result was going to be even stronger in favour of no deal out

Actually that's not quite correct, if there was to be a second referendum people would not be asked to vote for no deal. It would be this deal or stay. That's a given and commonly agreed. Too many people simply don't understand it, and it would be akin to asking rhe British people if they wished to rip up good Friday.

There is really little chance of a second vote at this stage, but thee is absolutely no chance of rhe public being asked if they would like no deal.

Bluntness100 · 31/01/2019 15:12

I think there are some people in power who really want this, they want the chaos and the devastation, they get off on it

Don't worry, at this stage it's less than five percent of MPs, and even they are changing, because they also live here, and have families.

Forget all the dick swinging by the few, it's irrelevant.

IceOnTheCar · 31/01/2019 15:16

A lot of people didn’t get to vote on their future.............
EU Nationals who have made UK their home.

Not 100% accurate. The Irish are EU Nationals and they got to vote.

Wizzwazzwas · 31/01/2019 15:18

I think the chances of remaining or even a second referendum now look vanishingly small.

No deal remains a risk, but I actually think the most likely outcome is ventually enough of those who are not ERG cave and vote for the WA.

If that happens we then have transition period (with possible extensions), followed by backstop forever because there is no answer to the Irish border.

Reminds me, I really should read up on exactly what the backstop is that makes it different from CU/SM. I always thought remaining in CU/SM but with no vote was the most likely outcome due to Ireland border issue.

Before Christmas I thought some sort of remain or second ref was possible, but recent crap in Parliament shows it really isn't. Even if there were a second ref I think is is a HUGE risk that leave would win by even more.

Doubletrouble99 · 31/01/2019 15:20

Cloudtree - deal or no deal we will not see 20% added to most food prices.
Only 25% of our food comes from the EU at present so only this may be affected. I would also suggest that some food chains may well change in the future as it becomes clear that it's more cost effective to use home grown or home prepared products.

I'm all for reducing the carbon foot print of any products which are unnecessarily moved around the continent which can just as easily be produced locally so an added bonus to Brexit!

cloudtree · 31/01/2019 15:28

Cloudtree - deal or no deal we will not see 20% added to most food prices. Only 25% of our food comes from the EU at present so only this may be affected. I would also suggest that some food chains may well change in the future as it becomes clear that it's more cost effective to use home grown or home prepared products.

Well thats not what the expert said. Customs duty on imported ingredients and packaging plus increased costs due to increased warehousing, increased admin etc which will be spread across products.

i'm sure you know better than the expert though.

Bluntness100 · 31/01/2019 15:38

Only 25% of our food comes from the EU at present so only this may be affected

Oh dear, that's a half story isn't it,?

Over half our food is imported and we import from many more countries that the eu. We import globally and leaving the eu impacts our ability to trade with the world. And impacts customs for every country trading with us, because we trade on eu terms with the world.

But it's more than the fifty odd percent of food imported. Much of the food we manufacture here, is with some raw ingredients we import from abroad.

The impact on our food chain is enormous.