Honestly - how likely is it now that Brexit will never happen?

[Crimson72]

There's just 57 days to go until we leave the EU.

Is there still a chance that Brexit will be stopped in some way, politicians will see sense, the whole thing will be called off and we will remain in the EU?

How likely is that to happen?

By unlikey I mean it won't be cancelled.

As I say Corbyn and Milne sidelining Starmer is a big indicator.

It’ll happen. It’ll be shit. And the leavers will blame the remainers for not being positive enough.

They'll blame the EU. It's already set up in the papers as "EU Intransigence", us vs. them, WW2 nostalgia. We are on a dark road.

I think Coveney had it best "do what I want or I'll jump out the window "

Really...
I said we won't starve .

Ww2 nostalgia.... Not.

I'm surprised there is still so much lack of knowledge on this.

No deal is by far the least likely outcome, not just because of the effects on the economy but because it rips up the good Friday agreement, it would mean a hard border. Teresa May has been very clear that parliament will get to vote on it again, she can revoke up until the last minute.

If her deal is not approved at the next meaningful vote on the 14 th then parliament gets to vote on all the amendments again that they voted on on Tuesday, the whole thing is repeated.

All this is is two weeks to see if she can get more from the eu to get her deal through. If she can't, then we do the whole thing again in the voting.

At that stage one of three things will happen. Either her deal will be voted in, a delay will be voted in, or it will be revoked. No deal already has a majority and that majority will get bigger if she can't get more for
Her deal.

No one wants no deal, even the prime minister has said she does not want it and parliament have her commitment they can vote again on it and prevent it.

So no deal is the less likely outcome for the U.K.

Brexit- The British people do NOT deserve better - the majority ( albeit small) voted for leaving, so blame those voters; whatever happens is on their heads!!!

No, the blame lies at David Camerons feet where it belongs for calling the referendum in the first place. Where is he anyway?

Hmm I have an issue with that.
Surely, if a referendum is best democratically system that allows people to express THEIR pov, regardless of what the question is, how complex it can be or how it is asked, then the responsibility lies very clearly with the voters.
We have been told again and again that this is the will of the people. Everyone is acting as if there was no way to not follow through that vote so I imagine that most people do see a referendum as the highest form of democracy.

In that case, the responsibility cannot be with David Cameron. Surely, he couldn't know better that the voters what needed to be done??? and he be held responsible for calling the referendum.

There is I believe an issue with referendums and whether they are or not the highest form of democracy an Dif they can or should be used on every subjects.
Imo, this was a subject much too complex to put to the population. Very few people have a thorough understanding of leaving the EU means, not helped by the lies, misunderstandings and half truths that have been sprouted by both sides.
And we also have many experiences in other countries where referendums have been causing major problems. Germany is one of them (where referendums have been abused in the past). But Switzerland is another (very hard to manage the country/decisions/consequences of those decisions). or France where numerous times people voted not for the answer to the questions but to support or no support for the government for example (something I believe has happened the UK with this referendum).

Unfortunately, this doesn't change anything as nowadays the whole political class and population believes there is nothing stronger than a referendum. So it will be might o impossible to not get out of the EU.

Which also makes me wonder why the OP is worried it might not happen??

It’s just a Neo liberal power grab. Just look at the cheer leaders for it All have connections with shady far right lobbyists/thinktanks -Steve Bannon, Robert mercer, Atlantic bridge, Institute of Economic Affairs, Cato organisation.. Liam Fox for one, Boris Johnson another. If leavers think they’re going to get a fairer more egalitarian society post Brexit with better funded public services etc then think again. These people want a small state with privatisation of anything that moves, less employment legislation, lower environmental standards - anything that cuts costs and generates profits if you don’t believe it read Dominic raabs book about his aspirations for the uk Enlightening to say the least

Blunt I dont agree.
The majority by which the amendment rejecting No Deal was voted was small.
there are MANY Ms that dont seem that worried about it and this is the reason why we might still et a No Deal. Even if by 'mistake', because no one got their acts together quickly enough.

(the other possibility is that they end up voting for ANYTHING that could avoid No Deal, even if its the crappest deal ever, worse than the one TM has)

It's looking more and more likely that it WILL happen, and unless the EU manage to overcome their intransigence, we leave without a deal.

"(the other possibility is that they end up voting for ANYTHING that could avoid No Deal"
Despit my earlier optimism I think this is the likeliest outcomes. And there will be celebrations.

Actually mummy2017 my children might disappear- or rather I might be forced to ‘disappear from them if I ever lose my job here in mainland Europe and it’s a no deal so less of the flippant comments please and more of the working with the facts in front of us.
It’s a vote against compassion.Againsy peace. Against families and the vulnerable.
Shame on those who put false promises based on xenophobia before humanity.

The majority by which the amendment rejecting No Deal was voted was sma

Ah, you need to look at the nuance behind it. They were whipped to vote against it, with the promise they would get to vote for it in two weeks if her deal was not approved by the house.

She whipped them because she wanted it at a bargaining chip for this two weeks. Over 95 percent of the house hast stated they will vote against it when the time comes, and the remaining five percent are now also standing up and saying they won't permit it, even Boris Johnson who was all for it

All that really happened on tues was they followed their party lines.

If Teresa May can't get her deal through parliament in two weeks they do the whole thing again and she won't whip against it. She's been very clear on that.

So no deal is the least likely outcome. In fact it's fairly impossible. To achieve.

How come on Mummy you're using commonsense again dont you know that's outside the Mumsnet Remainer Central rules.

Oh... hang on, you were joking, weren't you?

So no deal is the least likely outcome. In fact it's fairly impossible. To achieve.

But what we will have instead?

I can't see Brexit cancelled now, much as I wish it would be. Parliament is too damn scared to tell the tantrumming leavers that it was a bad idea then and a worse one now.

What I fantasise about is the EU devising some way to give us a cooling off period - kind of, hey, UK, crash out without a deal and let's see how it goes for you, then in a year's time, if it turns out you're not enjoying life on the outside as much as you thought you would, just come back in on your old terms with no penalty and stfu. Alternatively, I'd like us to rejoin after the cold shower of splendid isolation, but I can't see that happening when we'd have to join the euro, given how much pain maroon passports seem to be giving us.

Tbh, if I were the EU, I'd be glad to see the back of us though.

Instead we will have her deal, or a delay or it will be totally revoked,

I suspect her deal is the most likely, but it will also have a small delay, as there is now not enough time to get it through the legal system, there is over 600 statutes alone to be changed,

But this is where it gets unclear, which of the three options it will be

With leader of opposition working constructively with PM we're currently on-course for a revised WA and Brexit. For all those advocating no-deal as the preferred route please see Richard North's blog. He's a leaver with a good understanding of the impact of no-deal.
Of course no Brexit is preferable for UK population. Reasonably clear that Brexit will have adverse economic impact in the short, medium and long term. Not clear how the increased autonomy will mitigate these economic disadvantages.

We are this point because Britain triggered something that had no agreeable or workable plan. This is not EU intransigence it is UK stupidity

I am a staunch Remainer, but I do think the most likely outcome now is that we'll end up going out with no deal.

Basically on Tuesday, the dup and the Tories, fell in behind Teresa May to give her two weeks to go back to Brussels and improve th deal.

If she fails, and the house does not approve her deal on the 14th, the whole lot of amendments are voted again for, and that's when we will know what will happen.

The reason they fell in behind her was she made the public commitment that if they did fall in, she would give them the opportunity to vote again in two weeks if she failed.

And if she fails, then that round of voting will be a very very different animal to what we just saw.that will be when they take no deal off the table.

But as said, no one can predict what will happen.howcer it's likely her deal will get through, as it prevents a hard border in Ireland,and still allows us to exit, and many see that as way better than delaying or staying. No deal is simply not one of the options they will contemplate.even if they didn't give a fuck about the economy or thought it was project fear, none of them want to rip up good Friday.

The Norths may be obnoxious people, but they must be the only Leavers who have actually done their homework.

if I were the EU, I'd be glad to see the back of us though

So the EU doesn't want the billions we pay in to it?

So the EU doesn't want to export billions of pounds of goods to us?

Yeah right.

Oh, it'll happen.

Brexit- The British people do NOT deserve better - the majority ( albeit small) voted for leaving, so blame those voters; whatever happens is on their heads!!!

This.

I think those pinning their hopes on a PV however have a very very very long way to go. Sarah Woolaston has virtually admitted as such just now.

Lucy Powell who is in a remain seat is on daily politics has severe resevations about it and said there is no appetite for it in parliament and is very unlikely to be going forward.