Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Oddbins in administration.

Looks like each day until 14th is just going to be a drip drip of bad news interspersed with panicking about the weather. Brexiteers will doubtless be pleased with the 1940s pre-Alamein vibe. For myself, I'm drafting some threads to pepper MN with, along the lines of "It was worse in my nans day", "We've been poor before", and "Who needs Quinoa anyway ?".

My moneys on Flanagan and Allan for the Xmas no. 1

If the HoC finally passes the WA and we get into transition,
then I expect transition to be extended several years - because trade deals take 5-15 years even with governments that are not tearing themselves apart.

My expectation - I'd rate it 70% - is that eventually in transition we will either go for SM+CU in a 3rd EEA pillar,
or we'd actually Rejoin the EU
As soon as an accession deal is signed, we start getting the membership bennies again, btw.

Worst case is that the backstop is activated, still miles better than being a No Deal pariah

and we must keep reminding ourselves:

No Deal does not mean No Backstop

No Deal just means the EU - and probably many other wealthy countries - refuse to start trade deals until we sign the backstop

So No Deal means we get humiliated, then crawl back to sign what we refused before

No Deal just means the EU - and probably many other wealthy countries - refuse to start trade deals until we sign the backstop

I wonder if the hamster wheel at ERG towers has contemplated a situation where Theresa May is goaded into plunging us into a no deal predicated on her monomania of saving the Tories, at which point the UK is forced to accept the backstop anyway, and she has to go as the price, paving the way for President Johnson (suspiciously quiet at the moment...) to take the stage. No election needed.

Speaking of suspiciously quiet, where's the Govester these days ?

From the Express:
{BREXIT FURY: Brussels officials brand Gibraltar a 'COLONY' as row with Spain ERUPTS
THE Spanish infuriated Britain as Madrid's long-running obsession with reclaiming Gibraltar threatened to derail Brexit negotiations once again.}

So the UK is going up in flames and the 'Brexiteers' are going to argue whether they used 2 star or 4 start petrol to light the fire, rather than seeking a way to put it out.

My moneys on Flanagan and Allan for the Xmas no. 1

Or Dame Vera Lynn and White Cliffs of Dover?

Port of Dover has no "firm direction" or any physical action for checks

But, but, but I thought that Dover and the Mayor of Calais had told us that there wouldn't be any problems and no additional checks required.

This is all just more Project Fear.

Helena Kennedy and Maurice Saatchi have joined forces with Gina Miller to launch Lead not Leave. They reckon they had to leave it till late in the day so that imminent disaster focused people’s minds. The idea is Remain and Reform, I suppose.
These ‘What Ifs’ do sound good (if a bit optimistic).
I am so sick of this nonsense now; I just want it to stop.

You don't have to hear about Brexit any more
We stop wasting public funds on fantasy planning or no deal
Politicians get back to looking after Britain and the issues people worry about
We got certainty that would lead to more money in your pocket
We could stay and have more say in the EU
We could get more control over our borders
EU citizens and UK Expats could go back to living not worrying
We don't have to worry about our security services being distracted from protecting our country

leadnotleave.com/what-if

Gibraltar voters also voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Unless by some convoluted arithmetic 96% doesn't mean 96 in 100 people. Yet where is the 'will of the people' there? I read the Express article - not a dicky bird on it. How would the people of Gibraltar have voted if they knew they were going to be shut out of the EU? I suspect they would still prefer Britain, but by how many?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3496313-Westminstenders-Waiting-for-Sanity?watched=1

I'm going awol for most of the weekend. Here's a new thread. Whilst we wait...

Gibraltar voters also voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Unless by some convoluted arithmetic 96% doesn't mean 96 in 100 people. Yet where is the 'will of the people' there?

The problem is 99% voted against any closer involvement with Spain previously.

UK referendum law requires that whatever result is most politically advantageous must be chosen (see also: Scotland).

So to deliver the will of the 99%, you need to tell the 96% to shut the fuck up - we're trying to do Brexit here.

{You don't have to hear about Brexit any more
We stop wasting public funds on fantasy planning or no deal
Politicians get back to looking after Britain and the issues people worry about
We got certainty that would lead to more money in your pocket
We could stay and have more say in the EU
We could get more control over our borders
EU citizens and UK Expats could go back to living not worrying
We don't have to worry about our security services being distracted from protecting our country}

Sadly many of those bridges are already well alight.

{ How would the people of Gibraltar have voted if they knew they were going to be shut out of the EU? I suspect they would still prefer Britain, but by how many?}
I feel that the majority would probably be happier to stay in the EU rather than the UK (given that choice). It wouldn't be as clear cut perhaps but the 'outlook' of those in Gibraltar is different to those in the UK. It is such a small area that most see the South of Spain as their 'playground'.

I feel that the majority would probably be happier to stay in the EU rather than the UK

Ultimately, that's why Scotland and NI count for fuck all. How could the result of the referendum ever be interpreted that two countries supposedly in a union of consent with England would rather dump England and remain with the EU ?

One way of viewing the past two years treatment of Scotland and NI is the pure spite of a step parent after a child refused to visit.

A government spokesman says , "Gibraltar is not a colony and it is completely inappropriate to describe it in this way.
"Gibraltar is a full part of the UK family and has a mature and modern constitutional relationship with the UK.

I hadn't realised that Gibraltar had MPs and full representation in the UK parliament Surely that's what being a full part of the UK family means

Turning the UK into what was happening to Poland previously.

My DIL said exactly that - our grandson would probably have to leave the UK and go to somewhere like Poland to find work. As it happens the family have now left the UK. (Not entirely Brexit related, because DS was looking for other opportunities a good few years back, but the wondrous Brexit unicorns promised weren't sufficient to keep them here.)

Google Ceuta and Melilla.

Gibraltar is not part of the UK - hence the weasely words about 'family'

Gibraltar is a full part of the UK family

Since when did the UK start using marketing wankspeak in formal communications ? Even "A Little Bit of Fry and Laurie" would have rejected that line as too absurd to be funny.

Oh god. It’s all just too depressing.

Late to join the Victorian GP Remainers conversation. There was quite an age difference between DM and DF and DF had me late in life so my PGPs were born in the 1890s. MGPs were born during WW1. PGF fought in WW1 whereas both MGF and DF fought in WW11. Having said that PGPs weren’t dad’s birth parents - they may have been born post Victorian era.

So sad about Jeremy Hardy. We had suspected he wasn’t well as we had tickets booked to see him back in December but it was cancelled due to personal reasons and a friend in another part of the country with tickets a few weeks apart said the same thing.

Right. Only one thing for it. I’m going to eat cake now while DH is asleep and won’t know. He is pre diabetic and doesn’t eat sweet stuff now so I don’t eat it either as an act of solidarity. (translation: I eat loads in secret)

Ico @ iconews
We will audit data protection practices at LeaveEU and Eldon Insurance after fining both companies for unlawful marketing messages.
ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2019/02/ico-to-audit-data-protection-practices-at-leaveeu-and-eldon-insurance-after-fining-both-companies-for-unlawful-marketing-messages/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=iconews&utm_term=f9ce9a66-d39e-4763-b486-a19498786908&utm_content=democracydisrupted_leaveeueldon&utm_campaign=pressrelease
The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) has issued fines totalling £120,000 to an EU referendum campaign and an insurance company for serious breaches of electronic marketing laws and is set to review how both are complying with data protection laws.

The ICO announced an audit and issued a preliminary enforcement notice as well as three notices of intent to fine Leave.EU and Eldon Insurance trading as Go Skippy Insurance, in November 2018 as part of its investigation into data analytics for political purposes.

As soon as an accession deal is signed, we start getting the membership bennies again, btw.

Ooh, is that so? I didn't know that.

I logged on to check for "colony" chat.
How is an overseas territory different from a colony?
How cute of The British to think they can control what EU says or does even as we prepare to hurtle out of membership.

Wikipedia page on Gibraltar is... clear as mud about why Gibraltar could not be a colony.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Overseas_Territories
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony

Soz HMG, but Gibraltar deffo fits the Wikipedia definition of colony.

Don't we talk of a colony of bacteria ? Or insects ?

USA started out as a colony of Britain. Colony is imperialist word, I suppose, whereas the inhabitants of Gibraltar (like NI) very much in majority want to stay British.