Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Thanks for the new thread.

Thanks for the thread!

Sleigh thank you so much for those links. #2 had me in stitches, and it's been a while since politics related has done as it's often not meant to be comedy at all...

PMK

Places and Mats and Kings, oh my.

Cod Linolium Duchess

Pmk. MSE has a great deal in their weekly email - £12.99 for a load of fruit plants and veg seeds. Might as well start planning our victory gardens and getting into that blitz spirit.

PMK

PMK thanks as always @RedToothBrush

I actually feel a bit calmer today, I think it's more likely now that the WA will go through. It's not ideal, but it's not no deal either.

Good summary from Bloomberg here.

I am taking steps to emigrate...early days but exciting, if daunting!

Watching Brady and Johnson last night all giddy with how this is a positive step was unbelievable (well, not that unbelievable). They are being played. No skin off TM's nose to try and get consessions, come back with nothing, shrug her shoulders and say "want Brexit? It's WA or nothing "
. I'm guessing Johnson gets it because he's a duplicitous twat still hoping to get back in the fold with his new haircut.
I've been comfortable with accepting WA for a while on the basis that it's not No Deal.
It'll be interesting in a stomach churning kind of way to see if and how the Leaver mood on here changes. There are still leavers who post although I suspect they change their usernames to make it look like more new voices.

Spray flat ping.

Are we lapping ourselves at this point?

The polarisation is bizarre isn't it. In the electorate party loyalty is ditched - it must be at its lowest ever. For example my 40 years party loyalty to Labour is at rigamortis stage. Yet In the Westminster front benches party first is never higher, above the country, defining everything.

The time has come,' the Corbyn said,
To talk of many things:
Of back stops — borders — party splats —
Of fish , and mats and cat-kins

Strike through in the Lewis Carroll was unintentional. MN technique doesn't work with poetic punctuation!

I wonder what the Irish border is tweeting? iI's no border borderliness is clearly in line for a strike through again- by all sides at Westminster ...

Oops, just posted this on the "What do you think will be the next best thing" thread
trendy

Apologies if these articles were already posted on the last thread.

Summary of last night's shenanigans
politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/29/amendment-apocalypse-spineless-mps-just-voted-against-realit

And of the Malthouse nonsense
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-malthouse-amendment-just-because-its-a-compromise-doesnt-mean-it-will-work

So does anyone thing May will come out of talking to Corbyn with anything? I don't.
I do wonder if she will do some word juggling on her WA and recycle it though. Do we think that will be in Feb or right up to the wire (i.e making No Deal a 50/50 option?).
Not sure why everyone keeps talking about Feb and the Meaningful Vote...what have they got left to bang on about?

Oh this is a good thread from Stephen Crabb as to why we need the backstop:

twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1090184863041445888?s=19

"For what it's worth, a few thoughts on the backstop and why we shouldn’t be tripping over ourselves to bin it. A thread:

Peace in Northern Ireland is the biggest achievement in UK politics in last fifty years. The fruit of enormous effort and sacrifice. Successive UK governments have owned it, paying tribute along the way to the tough men and women who were big enough to compromise and do a deal.

The 1998 Belfast Agreement was always intended to be a living peace agreement with ongoing North-South economic cooperation built in. That happened within a unified framework of the Single Market & CU. The implications of Brexit for this were an afterthought at best in 2016.

In Dec 2017 we agreed to notion of a NI 'backstop’ as insurance policy that our proposed Brexit (Lancaster House) would do nothing to disrupt current patterns of economic & social life across the border.
Was clear then that the backstop would have some teeth. No one left government in protest. Joint Report hailed as a breakthrough moment in negotiations. Widely supported across Conservative party.

The final form of backstop in Withdrawal Agreement reflected a key UK demand that it should be a UK-wide arrangement rather than NI-specific. This was a concession we asked for and got. Backstop would kick in if no alternative arrangements found.

Rather than embrace the fruit of our efforts the backstop immediately slated as a trap concocted by (a) the tricky Irish to further unity aspirations and/or (b) malevolent Commission to keep UK locked into CU indefinitely & stop us doing trade deals.
9 weeks before we are due to leave the EU, the idea that our end-game strategy should now be built around proposal to gut the backstop from WA is just not in the real world & not consistent with “solemn commitment” to the people of NI.

Our reversal on backstop, along with mutterings about revisiting the Belfast Agreement or using No Deal threat to force Irish to compromise, just serves to underline the need for backstop in the first place. Backstop is about locking in something good amidst uncertainty."

Pity more Leavers don't read that @RosaPalma .

So, next vote on 14th Feb - the St Valentine’s Day Massacre, The Ugly Truth or Love Actually?

This is good on the backstop. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/eu-withdrawal-agreement-will-we-be-stuck-in-the-backstop

It's two months old (20th Nov), depressingly, so doesn't look like there's much chance of the "sensible debate" referred to in the final para:

"The concerns about being “stuck” in the backstop are, in my opinion, greatly inflated. Indeed, one disappointing aspect of the debate over the last week has been the willingness of some publications and politicians to make or repeat a number of wholly exaggerated or fanciful claims about the WA, without bothering to check their accuracy with those who are used to dealing with complex provisions such as these. If we are to have a sensible debate about the WA—as well as other complex trade agreements in future—MPs and commentators need to do better."

Another peachy report about medications shortages and cancelled operations, should anyone wish to descend into the gloom further.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47051031

.

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Barry Gardiner now rowing back on Labour's previous position, which was that Jeremy Corbyn would only meet Theresa May if no-deal was taken off the table. Now saying he just wanted her to acknowledge that MPs don't want no-deal. Which is not true. #r4today

John Harris @ johnharris1969
Early Gardinerism means a bad day is assured.