Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

“Giving in to a border in the Irish Sea means accepting the end of the UK”

Motheroffour, can you explain why you believe that to be true? As an NI Unionist, I don’t see the reasoning, and think the sea border is actually a pretty reasonable solution to the problem. As has been pointed out time and time again on here, some sea border checks already exist and don’t make the ‘typical’ unionists feel any less part of the UK (I can’t and won’t ever speak for the DUP and their ilk). A no deal, hard border will bring about a UI much faster than a sea border will, imo.

“Giving in to a border in the Irish Sea means accepting the end of the UK”

Motheroffour, can you explain why you believe that to be true? As an NI Unionist, I don’t see the reasoning, and think the sea border is actually a pretty reasonable solution to the problem.

I think it's the wider picture with Scotland that's the issue. The Union of the United Kingdom is 4 constituent - if not equal - countries.

I was referring specifically to Mother objecting to (some) Europeans travelling to the UK as part of FoM, while at the same time using her FoM to reside in Belgium.
If people are taking this to a wider context then they are mistaken

I think the only mistake was you not understanding that that comment (which nevertheless was true - we cannot prevent FOM from happening by the back door if checks are on goods only - and as ending FOM seems to be the entire purpose of brexit ...) was dripping in irony and not a factual statement of her beliefs. The word 'precious' to describe GB was the tip off.

You need to apologise.

Do you mean in that Scotland won’t be happy if NI is offered something that they aren’t? And that’s what would precipitate the breakup of the UK?

Sheriff half of England wants to break away from UK atm. If I was Scottish I'd be furious and even more determined to vote for independence at any opportunity!

Sorry, crossed posts. I read your update, Mother, and understand how unfair it would feel. And I understand that you recognise the historical context that makes NI different.
The referendum should have required a min percentage from each constituent part, although it’s a bit late in the game for that kind of sensible talk now.

Lonely, I understand that. However, there was a move for Scottish independence pre-Brexit, and there will undoubtably be moves again. The Scottish will to determine itself doesn’t rest only on Brexit.
If NI was denied special status in order to placate Scotland, and Scotland subsequently voted to leave the UK anyway, can you imagine how that will feel for us in NI?

Scotlands position is also different to NIs in that in the 2014 referendum, membership of the EU was used as an anti-independence weapon. So much so that as an English observer, I thought it was a clever way to neutralise those that wanted to be in the EU more than independent.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I view Scotland as having suffered the same duplicity that NI has - which goes against all the sense of British fair play I was instilled with as what makes us special.

So if NI and or Scotland wish to leave the Union - who knows maybe form their own union; given they share much more history than England and Scotland and England and Ireland. Then I for one would support that.

DGRossetti as a Scot (albeit one living in England at the time of the independence referendum and thus unable to vote) my preference to remain in Europe was a primary factor in supporting the remain campaign. I would probably vote differently now.

The Colony of Gibraltar...

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-news-latest-gibraltar-spain-british-colony-crown-travel-a8757926.html

A UK government spokesperson said: "The EU’s provisions for visa-free travel into and out of the Schengen area cover Gibraltar, and mean that in any scenario, British Nationals from Gibraltar will be able to travel for short stays in and out of Spain and other countries in the Schengen area.

"Gibraltar is not a colony and it is completely inappropriate to describe in this way.

“Gibraltar is a full part of the UK family and has a mature and modern constitutional relationship with the UK. This will not change due to our exit from the EU. All parties should respect the people of Gibraltar’s democratic wish to be British."

Diplomats said the British ambassador to the EU raised London's objections about Gibraltar's designation in a meeting of EU envoys.

"Gibraltar is a colony of the British Crown,” the text said, according to the Financial Times. “There is a controversy between Spain and the UK concerning the sovereignty over Gibraltar, a territory for which a solution has to be reached in light of the relevant resolutions and decisions of the General Assembly of the United Nations.”

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
EU Council draft of offer of visa free travel to British citizens after Brexit (if reciprocated to all EU27 citizens) - they have added (ie Spain has insisted) a footnote “Gibraltar is a colony of the British crown” and controversy over sovereignty, solution yet to be reached

... so that has been added to the Commission draft.

Number 10: “Gibraltar is not a colony it is completely unacceptable to describe it in that way”

but this is an EU27 internal position over which the UK no longer has any type of veto.

Not just a footnote - page 3 asserts that “Gibraltar is not part of the UK” and so its citizens will not be part of the visa waiver offered to visiting Brits. Again this is an addition to Commission draft by EU Council (ie Spanish diplomats)

According to my colleague @sophiacmcbride an attempt was made to put a further UK footnote in re legal status of Gibraltar. Rejected.

Hi everyone, I'm about 24 hours behind now 😩 I've just been reading the comments on the bbc news website in response to companies stockpiling. The mentality is worrying and why we are in this mess to start with

"The stench of desperation from the remoaners if absolutely vile." Is one example along with some rubbish about 40% of our fruit and veg coming from outside the EU and taking weeks to get here so what's your problem, stop panicking.

Gibraltar is legally a British colony - and major military base -
and is treated as so by the UN and by non-British courts

However, Gibraltar voters overwhelmingly choose to belong to the UK - no independence movement at all -
and it is self-governing over internal affaits go, but not for international matters, treaties, defence

Interesting, sheriff
Polls suggest that the DUP does not even represent most Unionist views when it comes to Brexit and how to handle the EU external border

Well, we were wondering when the Gibraltar issue would be raised, seeing as GFA has only just been realised by leavers since the ref!

mother The WA would still allow the Uk during transitition negotiations to switch towards a SM+CU final deal

That is a much better chance than the 1% chance that May would Revoke

The EU has agreed to give British citizens visa-free travel to member states, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

This is mostly pragmatism on their behalf - they couldn't implement a new visa regime for Brits travelling to the EU for short term visits (ie three months or under) without many, many, many months' preparation. Though in any case we aren't a high risk nationality

I have to write a section on what is in UK that I would be coming back for.

Lonely - I'm not a qualified immigration lawyer, but the sort of thing that you need to put in this section is how you will be retaining close ties to the UK, such as keeping property here, family, plans for DC's education etc etc.

Oh, I know that and that will go in, but I also have to explain why I don't choose to do what I am doing here in UK.

The EU has agreed to give British citizens visa-free travel to member states, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

as soon as I read that, my first thoughts were it's in preparation for no deal. It cannot be stressed enough how little faith the EU has in the UKs ability to do anything right now. I'm expecting a few more announcements over the next few days along the same lines.

Doubtless our brainless Brexiteer chums will be imagining this is somehow one up to them and is a good reason to carry on "being firm".

They want the tourism, especially Spain and France
money in, win-win
even though we aren't the most high-spending nationality we do provide millions of tourists

Also, because of aging demographics, the wealthier core countries are trying to attract more non-EU workers,

both the professionals & the less skilled and even those with just youth & strong backs.

There will still be opportunities for Brits to move abroad, especially the better off
As always, the poor, the old and the disabled have lost out