Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

mobile.twitter.com/SpoonsWorkers/status/1090222822222450690

The workers of wetherspoons are fighting back.

Sorry if it’s already been mentioned but the Kippers have petitioned Brenda to shut down Parliament.

It’s like Britain has no filter since the referendum. We’re just letting the crazy out for all to see

The route i'm taking to get a Visa abroad has a section where I need to prove that I don't intend to settle. I have to write a section on what is in UK that I would be coming back for. So I am putting that given the current climate and changes that will rapidly be taking place, the UK will need experts with learning from overseas on how to completely reinvent the health service. The country I am going to has private health care, which I suspect we are around 5 years away from max here in UK.
Whether I will want to return at the end of the Visa completely depends on the violence and opportunities for my daughter. I am hoping that even if it is just for a few years, at least I have done something to minimise the damage to us while the worst of it is happening. However I am suspicious that it will be far longer term than just 2 years.

Another day, another shouty far right rant about the BBC not giving fair coverage to poor old Nigel Farage because the BBC is so left-wing liberalist propaganda...

By my Indian, uk- living, originally German friend.

My Pakistani neighbours also embrace the far-right, hate the EU and Europeans especially those 'dirty, lazy little Italians'.

Amuses me no end as my Italian, Brexiteer far-right friend who screams and rants at me down the teleohone hates Pakistanis.

Interesting isn't it? Are we a united kingdom, or disunited kingdom?

Or have we fragmented and regrouped in odd ways united against a common enemy: the EU?

I'm clinging to the notion that I'm the sane one.

Sorry if it’s already been mentioned but the Kippers have petitioned Brenda to shut down Parliament.

If Gerard Batten spent more time researching constitutional law, and less time masturbating to pictures of spitfires with his cock wrapped in a (small) union jack, he'd know that the Monarch cannot make a mistake in law. In fact it's probably treasonous to suggest it. If he were a real Englishman, rather than a bad impression of one, he'd also know the only route to correct any mistake in law is ... another law through parliament.

Having now caught up properly, have to say I didn’t see any hypocrisy.

Brexit is a gendered issue. Far fewer women than men think no-deal is a good option.

Out of seven options, including May carrying on trying to push her deal through parliament, men narrowly favoured no deal, with 28% choosing no deal compared to 27% choosing to stop Brexit altogether. Women were much more sceptical of leaving the EU without a deal. Only 16% of women thought this the right choice. Their top choice was, in fact, to abandon Brexit and remain in the EU, with 29% of women favouring this option.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/feminism/2019/01/brexit-feminist-issue-no-deal-not-option-women

Mother 💐 🍩

leclerc That was very unfair and not how we debate on these threads

DG 😂 and 🤮

Brexit is a gendered issue

Arguably everything is a gendered issue ? Women (and therefore children) inevitably are the first to suffer and last to benefit in any upheavals in society.

Maybe there should be a modern day movement of Lysistratans ?

It is a bloody gendered issue in my wider family. Anyone got any handy caves?

Giving in to a border in the Irish Sea means accepting the end of the UK.

Mother, are you against the GFA? Because the GFA itself means accepting that the end of the UK may happen if and when a majority of the citizens of NI and Ireland decide that is what they want. It's in there in black and white. On the first page.

If the govt / UK want an A50 extension, they'd better tell their MPs to stfu with insulting the EU
Not the way to ask for a favour when you're desperate and the whole world knows it

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (Euopean Policy Centre)

Heard a Conservative Brexiteer call the EU stupid at the same time as asking for an extension to Article 50.
Words fail me

Bigchoc - was David Davis’ lawnmower his idea of a cutting-edge technological solution to the backstop?

Ironically, while the WA may lead to Scottish independence, it’s more likely to keep NI in the UK than no deal. The WA gives NI a huge economic boost, making small n nationalists more likely to be OK with the status quo. Conversely, No Deal would see small n nationalists and a small proportion of moderate unionists vote for reunification.

The sky news report yesterday said women were more likely to be in debt because of childcare costs. Single parents are left worse off over UC.

People ask why there are no protests. It's because the people most affected have kids to look after and are desperately trying to hold on to their jobs. Or they're disabled and not able to protest.

The government picks it's targets well. Unlikely to protest and easy to paint as wasters faking it or loose women undermining the sanctity of marriage.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/poorer-brexiters-worse-off-working-class-leavers

Interesting article on why 'the poor' voted for Brexit, why 'liberal elites' are gobsmacked by this behaviour (I may be paraphrasing here).

'Our (liberal elite) challenge is not to mock, but to tell a better story. One that includes them (the poor), has a future for all of us and, ultimately, turns “them” and “us” into “we”.'

{Add hypocrisy to your CV
What a cruel, unpleasant and uninformed thing to write.}
I was referring specifically to Mother objecting to (some) Europeans travelling to the UK as part of FoM, while at the same time using her FoM to reside in Belgium.
If people are taking this to a wider context then they are mistaken.

Of course, the GFA already recognises that NI is different from GB. Albeit all being under the umbrella of the UK. It is recognised that the inhabitants may not be British at all. Every last one of them have a right to not be British. (sic, split infinitive)

If Gerard Batten spent more time researching constitutional law, and less time masturbating to pictures of spitfires with his cock wrapped in a (small) union jack

My delicate sensibilities have been assaulted by that mental image of Gerald tugging on his little batten.

Gaspode sadly I think we have gone past mocking them. They are a threat to the UK and have caused disaster that has barely even begun.

SO as much as I would love to have compassion for them, they've changed this country for the worse and most of them can't even see it. I doubt any of them feel remorse or ever will do, because of course none of it will be their fault . After trying to talk to them for 2 years and seeing the levels of crazy increase rather than decrease (they are like the MAGA wearers at Trump rallies - completely radicalised), forgive me if I've given up and want no more to do with them.

As to the pp who was questioning whether we are divided? My leaver friend yesterday ranted about scaremongering news which (without pausing for breath) went into how "dog owners obviously don't care about their children, they want their kids to die. You can't tell me ANYONE who owns a dog actually loves their kids". This woman is a teacher, with an MA equivalent. She is not in her right mind.

Everytime I see Gerrard Batten mentioned I feel the need to apologise to everyone. Not sure why other than the fact he lives in the same constituency as me. But the overwhelming urge is there. Similarly to the urge I feel to apologise for Nigel Farage to anyone not British.

Or those British but who's face doesn't fit in his world.