Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/02/01/ico_slaps_120k_fines_on_arron_banks_insurance_biz_and_leave_campaign/

The Leave.EU campaign and Brexiteer Arron banks' insurance biz Eldon have been fined a total of £120,000 for dodging direct marketing rules.

(contd)

So, anyone can be a tourist
but not everyone can be a longterm expat

So as a disputed territory - will Gibraltar be getting a trade boarder?

mother yes, but Revoke has only a 1% chance
which is far less than the chance of getting CU+SM in the WA

If there were more time and more politicians who could forget their careers, then we could still modify the PD to make that the aim in transition

However, the EU is not going to drop the backstop even if we change the PD,
because they don't trust us.
Can't blame them

There will still be opportunities for Brits to move abroad, especially the better off...

...and the clever, and the young. Turning the UK into what was happening to Poland previously.

It's worth noting the less available labour there is, the stronger workers protections get ... after all, if a company can hire 10 from 1000, they're not really too minded about low wages and churn. When it becomes 10 from 20, it's an issue.

I've commented before that if folk really wanted to scare the elite, they'd stop having children.

lonely The 96% Remain vote in Gibraltar is because they guessed what would happen:

The EU will require a Spain / Gibraltar border - which the Spanish would have no ideological problem reimposing.
The Spanish economy locally would suffer because of that, but they'd accept it

When they joined the EU, the UK was already a member, so Spain had to sign things they hated and open up the border to enable the current prosperity
So Spanish national pride would help soften the local ecocomic effects

Unless there is an SM+CU deal with provision for Gibraltar, then its back to the bad old days

WTO rules apply to all external boundaries

With the visa issue - I'm a little confused as I thought the other day we revoked all EU rights of visitors here? So how does medical insurance work, for example?

Thursday: Arron Banks hobnobbing at a DUP dinner with Rees-Mogg

Friday: Arron Banks and LeaveEU fined £120,000 for breaching data laws during the Brexit campaign.

But nothing will come of it and nothing will change. People will continue to say that it’s no big deal really and illegal activities played no part in the result.

BigChoc - thank you - just not sure why the papers haven't spelled that out!

My first job as a scientist in Germany was late 80s, when the Auf Wiedersehen-type skilled manual workers were there too

Difference with No Deal and a long economic Depression, instead of just a Recession,
could be in the sheer numbers of young and / or skilled Brits who emigrate

Could we see a real British Diaspora of a few million, if these Brits see little future in the UK ?

• the numbers might seem small compared to 65 million, but as a proportion of those that make a country run and pay the bills, the effects could be worse longterm than losing big companies

So much of what the UK media is still saying, TV/radio/papers, leaves a lot to be desired.
Their description of a black cat could turn out to be a honey coloured dog.
The only accurate bits being 4 legs and a tail.

Could we see a real British Diaspora of a few million, if these Brits see little future in the UK ?

It's happened before. It's why the English language spread so deeply so quickly.

DWs Uncle emigrated to Australia in the 60s. Never looked back. And my DB fucked off to the US in the 90s and is now a citizen.

People were scouring their family trees earlier. I wonder how many and how far back people can go to find an ancestor who left Britain and settled elsewhere ?

lonely important difference between tourists staying weeks - who nearly everyone wants because they bring in money

and immigrants, which many EU countries would quite like from the UK
However, many in the UK apparently don't want European immigrants

With the WA, medical insurance would continue as before
With No Deal, it is unclear what would happen to EHIC

Also with No Deal, unclear what would happen to health insurance for UK / E27 expats

Anyone with pre-existing conditions, or who is a pensioner, might find they can't obtain new private insurance that fuflfills the criteria of the host country.

Hence they would have to leave
Likley to be more of a strain for the NHS, what with the numbers of pensioners in Spain already suffering from Sterling pensions that buy less

DG re Brit Diaspora:
If No Deal happens, "you ain't seen nothing yet"

This would be a flood of escapees, not a trickle

Port of Dover has no "firm direction" or any physical action for checks what a surprise!

mother Uncertainty is damaging because businesses fear No Deal may happen

If No Deal happens, then certainty in the worst possible outcome happening

• well, unless you are thinking of the interests of the escaping businesses and expats

It's the worst case for those who can't escapee

{If No Deal happens, "you ain't seen nothing yet"

This would be a flood of escapees, not a trickle}
The enterprising might consider Poland and some of the Eastern European countries as they are wanting their young skilled workers to return as so many came West in the past. There is I believe a suggestion that one country is putting out there that they want young workers to only be 'allowed' to leave for 5 years before returning, unless they can put forward a compelling case. It is against the spirit of FoM of course, but the idea is there.

Cecilia Malmström@MalmstromEU

It’s done!
Filling in the second eye of the traditional Japanese daruma dolls to mark the entry into force of the #EUJapan trade agreement today.
The first eye is for when you set out to achieve a difficult task, the second is for when it’s completed.

#EUJapanEPA
......
Bobby McDonagh@BobbyMcDonagh1

I assume there’s a one-eyed Brexit daruma doll waiting patiently somewhere in the Commission?
😂

Well, Poland is regaining its workers as the economy booms

The EU public would never agree to restrictions on their FOM, especially those designed by far right govts to keep their young people in - straight from the USSR / Russia manual.

and of course, they'd ignore any demands / begging from Westminster about the Brit braindrain and youthdrain

I'm sure a Brexiter fairy somewhere is saying that this would bring house prices down
Yes it would and those who have money will do well

It is against the spirit of FoM of course

My reading of FoM - and it's central role in the four freedoms - is that it's part of a mechanism to prevent what happened under the Nazis to ever happen again. Which is a subtly different issue to being allowed to work anywhere in Europe, and which may have developed from the original aim. Bearing in mind the FoM is still qualified ... it's just the UK didn't (and arguably very nobly ) impose those qualifications.

"uncertainty" will damage the economy
No Deal will send it over the cliff