Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

Louise. I think you have stated your incontestable benefits clearly and well. The third one is especially important to me.

What sums up this craziness:

The "Party of Business" has become the party of "Fuck Business"
as gleefully proclaimed by Boris Johnson, during an official engagement when Foreign Secretary

Louise please don't get me wrong. It's not that I don't see issues to your arguments that are indeed negatives to the UK. Its just that in terms of an alternative I don't think there is a better solution in the current political climate and don't think the trajectory of politics will massive diverge from that.

I think there are huge issues with the EU.

I think one of the things about the referendum was it posed a question which framed things in terms of 'voting for' something but the argument for remaining was only ever one which most people could ever give a 'on balance' argument for in positive terms. That's not attractive in voting terms.

I get frustrated by the assumption that Remainers have a glorified view of the EU and have it on a pedestal. Sure some do. But many share reservations with leavers about certain areas.

I just wish we'd had a more honest debate on issues like that which are purely to do with the EU rather than have a debate that was based on domestic issues which were blamed on the EU which were in reality UK only problems.

Louise how do you feel about protecting the environment, specifically the special places we have that here in the UK are now quite rare , I am thinking of places such as parts of the Lake District, parts of Dartmoor , heathlands, a few river estuary bird havens with the rare species - that sort of thing. How do you feel about otters, golden eagles , and other rare birds and mammals also ?

Personally because they are few and far between I like them and want to see them unspoilt. They are protected through our legislation because the EU decided together to protect them ( Boris Johnson ‘s father in fact.) The thing is it’s the ECJ that ultimately protects these when somebody decides to ignore the law to interpret it in a new way. In the last 10 years or more and yes that includes all 3 major parties uk goats have either fought the ECJ alone or supported others doing do and thankfully quite a few times and in the main, lost, meaning that these places still stay protected.

Like a PP your second reason is why I voted remain. I don’t trust this govt or others parties on that front: the economy always trumps the environment even when it’s a quick buck.

Employment law is not my area of expertise but I am sure there are examples in that field too.

I would love to see Scotland vote for independence by 52 to 48 per cent, and then see Westminster's reaction. Would we hear about the will of the people? I would suspect not.

Uk goats ? Uk govts!

Jo Maugham QC@JolyonMaugham

But three things are true.

One, Corbyn chose to make no attempt to coalesce support around any serious alternative to Theresa May's Brexit.

Two, he chose not to gather support for PV.

And, three, it is those choices which leave Theresa May's Brexit as the only game in town

Again there is this assumption that were it not for the great and glorious EU our wildlife and our natural habitats would be going unprotected!

It’s not my area of expertise, I’ll readily concede that, but I seriously doubt that’s true. Britain has, apparently, had parliamentary protections for wild birds, for example, since 1880 and a National Parks Act since 1949. This idea that we dont or wouldn’t do this without the EU is just not backed up IMO.

The last seriously anti natural environment things that I can think of this government doing are attempting to get Local Councils to build loads of new homes and trying to sell off the forestry commission. The latter proposal got dropped very fast, and rightly so.

I want our natural spaces to enjoy strong protections, but I don’t think we should, to give a flippant example, be delaying buildinb HS2 because of some newts!

Are you confusing protection for natural habitats with decisions to allow “fracking” maybe?

(FT paywall) Roundup of worried business statement today

https://www.ft.com/content/5c60b8ba-1f7a-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

The head of <span class="underline">Airbus</span> has launched a stinging attack on the government’s handling of the Brexit negotiations, 

branding it a “disgrace” that business could still not plan properly and
warning that the aerospace group could pull out of the UK if there was no deal.

The warning by Tom Enders came as
Jaguar Land Rover said it would close all UK plants for two and a half weeks during April,
while Ford- warned of an $800m bill this year from additional Brexit-related costs.

It also emerged that several of Britain’s largest manufacturers, including -Airbus, aero-engine group Rolls-Royce, Ford and JLR, had discussed a joint letter warning about the consequences of Britain crashing out of the EU on March 29.
< if they are going to warn, not much time left ! >

In a highly unusual intervention, business minister Richard Harrington also said a hard Brexit would be a “disaster for business”,
adding: “I am very happy to be public about it and very happy if the prime minister decides I am not the right person [to be business minister as a result].”
...
The Airbus chief used a video message published on the company’s website to warn that
Britain’s decades-old expertise in wing production was at risk
and that Airbus could “be forced to redirect future investments” in the event of a no-deal.

Airbus employs more than 14,000 people at 25 sites across the country and supports 110,000 jobs in the wider supply chain.
......
Enders urged UK decision makers not to “listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that, because we have huge plants here, we will not move and we will always be here”.

“They are wrong.
Of course, it is not possible to pick up and move our large UK factories to other parts of the world immediately.
However, aerospace is a long-term business and we could be forced to re-direct future investments in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

And make no mistake there are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft,"

Airbus last June estimated it could lose up to €1bn a week in sales if the UK quit the EU without agreeing on the terms of a trading relationship with Brussels.

Juergen Maier, chief executive of Siemens UK, struck a similar tone on Thursday, telling an audience of manufacturing executives that “the thing all of us won’t be able to manage is a no deal”.

The effects would not be as “binary” as shutting down factories, he said,
but a slowdown in investment, already under way up and down the country,^
“means that the writing is on the wall on what will happen to those factories in a decade’s time”^

I don't want to knock Airbus but it is as much a political organisation as it is a genuine business. As we all know, It has received $22 billion in illegal EU subsidies.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44120525
I'm not saying this is a bad thing but it is at least questionable.

Maybe it's because after my dad died, I grew up very poor
and before he died he told me of growing up on the verge of starvation in the 1920s & 1930s NE England

but imo
if the economy crashes, most people won't give a FUCK about those 3 Brexit "benefits" when they lose their jobs and can't afford the higher prices

Generations in the UK have become accustomed to certain standards of living and services.

The public will NOT meekly accept being poorer for some abstract airy fairy - elite mc ! - reasons,
after rich Brexiter donors trouser £ hundreds of millions each in their Brexit windfalls.
"let them eat cake" has never gone down well

People will turn in fury to the far left and / or the far right and it will be a battle who wins

If you think Corbyn is leftwing, wait to see who succeeds him in what would be a Depression, not just a Recession.
Who would replace the Tories - Farage's new party ? More likely Tommy Robinson & his ilk

I really blame the businesses who support everything through taxes and employment. They have been very quiet up to now. I cannot understand their acceptance of this uncertainty..

Are they are ramping it up. Or cough.... maybe ignoring a super injunction or something now at last.

I dunno. Just guessing.

That case was brought by Boeing who receive billions more in US govt aid from defence contracts

UK and EU companies can't compete with the giant US firms without subsidies, because the playing field is not level.

Try finding any UK politician who would be prepared to bankrupt the British aerospace industry by abandoning subsidies.

btw, The US has also tried to say that the NHS is an unfair advantage under WTO rules, because many US firm have to pay healthcare insurance to their workers.
So far, we've fought that case off.

The US is absolutely ruthless in pursuit of its commercial interests - which we will find if we ever have to negotiate a trade deal with them
We would be totally reamed.

Still, after No Deal Brexit you can console yourself that many of those impure firms will be leaving the UK

If Brexiters take the US side in conflicts with British industry, then we can be sure that firms will pull out even more quickly !

Again there is this assumption that were it not for the great and glorious EU our wildlife and our natural habitats would be going unprotected

One of my concerns going forward is not that we don't have laws that are designed to do x, y or z. I believe we do have them in many areas. Be it environmental or something else. My concern is with regard to enforcement of those laws and how future changes might work. I have a certain lack of faith that our laws alone are sufficient in the sense that I fear growing corruption and ways to get around British law. EU law feels like a healthy backup to protect somewhat against that and makes it easier for the population to hold those in government and in power to account. I would like to believe that our laws alone would be sufficient but everything I've seen lately with regard to proper scrutiny of new law and the possibility of unintended consequences leads me doubt the ability of the opposition to be as effective as it should be. 'The Trump effect' is not good and I can certainly see huge echoes of it here with the sheer scale of lobbying and the growing lack of transparency of it.

I don't know. I think my experience of understanding how things should work but the reality being fundamentally different in practice has left me jaded.

My trust has gone.

The way Brexit has been handled certainly has been a major driving force but my doubts did start some time ago during the Blair years. Its not a party political thing.

It's been a gradual creep within British politics which has been problematic for me. I do think this is shared by huge numbers of the public but this frustration has manifested in different ways.

I think who people trust in society now is an interesting dynamic of all of this. There has been a breakdown of it in society as a whole. I think where that falls affects how you percieve the entire Brexit paradigm.

Heard a guy on LBC earlier today who said, yes take it down to the wire, and for sure the EU will realise that they need us more than UK needs the EU.

OK.... if anyone can refute that I am all ears!

nico Businesses are about making money.
It's their legal duty to their shareholders

it is politicians who have a duty to the public
Businesses are only required to make their products safe & legal.

Businesses who speak out get crucified by the Brexit poliiticians & media and could also face being shut out of govt contracts

So they'll only speak up at the last possible moment

Or they might never speak at all, just gradually pull out after a No Deal

• maybe not so gradually in the case of businesses who can't make a profit afterwards

EU law feels like a healthy backup . That's a good point. I've never thought about it like that. I've tended to see the corruption (like Dieselgate) and the imposition of unpopular and unwanted laws rather than the positives.

My concerns about UK laws after No Deal:

1. The ERG have openly stated their intentions for a "bonfire of red tape", a "bonfire of workers rights.
   Listen to people when they tell you who they are

2. After an economic crash, the niceties will vanish
   Workers rights - certainly their pay & conditions - will be sacrificed in a desperate struggle to keep businesses here and domestic businesses solvent
   The environment will be bottom of anyone's list after suffering that

I know BC

But still.... Businesses could have helped the madness really in a gradual way. I doubt ALL of them have Govt. contracts either.

I sure hope this is the last possible moment now and it's looking like it .
Hopefully!

What specific EU laws are you against ?

Look at the occasions when the Uk has clashed against the other EU members.

Hint: the UK was usually fighting against rights for ordinary people
fighting against laws e.g. to make beaches cleaner
against e.g. rights for agency staff
against rights not to work over 48 hours

I think one of the really telling things about brexit is how far you can get in a conversation about Brexit before the word trust comes up. Watch out for it.

Anyway after 1am and not done newspapers

Hammond is featuring heavily. Notable how he calls no deal a betrayal of the referendum

We are living through a very important period in our history.

I have documented a lot of stuff since 2016 for my heirs.

If you think the EU is corrupt ...
We could go into all the things the UK has done, like murders & torture

e.g. Let's look at NI

Bloody Sunday and hundreds of other murders by British soldiers
The "5 techniques" - used as standard to torture thousands of NI prisoners until finally ruled illegal (ECHR, not ECJ)
The innocent Irish people sent to jail for 15, 20 years e.g the Birmingham 6, the Guildford 4

Does that make the UK evil and corrupt ?

Indy leading with forcing Corbyn into a second ref situation.