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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:17

The express go full guns blazing for no deal and how no deal prep is being stepped up

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:18

The FT quotes business as referring to no deal as 'madness'

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
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SusanWalker · 25/01/2019 01:21

Surely there will still be recourse to the court of Human rights after brexit. We're not leaving the ECHR. So there will still be a higher court.

But then like the comment earlier about back up, I feel having an international court is a good insurance. We are lucky to live in a country with an independent judiciary, but look at Poland and the issues with their judges.

And I do think that if we hadn't signed up to certain workers rights some party would have tried to dilute them by now. Let's face it TM is only now mentioning them to get labour MPs to vote for her WA. But if it gets through May will be gone and her promises will mean fuck all to a future government who will be able to get rid if they have a majority in the house to vote them away.

nicoala1 · 25/01/2019 01:24

There are no words left anymore.

So self destruct button now.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:25

And the Queen firmly and publicly rules out any notion of proroguing Parliament without saying it explicitly. Cos she's good at making statements like that without making overt statements. The Queen is very clearly worried about a far left or right backlash or even civil war. She might not be able to say it, but she does not go this close to politics as a rule and you can read between the lines and her saying she does not wish the monarchy to be dragged into this and is trying to provide some leadership which is notably absent from where it should be coming from.

The Queen getting involved by not getting involved is quite the story. And significant.

Some might go as far as to say she sounds pissed.

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
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BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:27

susan Provided the hard right tories - and May - don't get their dream and we don't leave the ECHR ...

they don't cover many workers rights anyway, or the environment
e.g. a US FTA would be quite legal

EU law covers one hell of a lot more
When EU laws are broken, workers can and have gone to the Supreme Court, only v occasionally to the ECJ
However, when we are no longer bound by those laws, no use applying to the EHRC - not their remit.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:31

Very narrow margin on Cooper's No Deal amendment, very dependent on enough Tory rebels:

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

Rough headcount on vote on @YvetteCooperMP's amendment next Tues: assuming 24 Con & 15 Lab rebels, it passes by 320-317

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8sjdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVff_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:31

Surely there will still be recourse to the court of Human rights after brexit. We're not leaving the ECHR. So there will still be a higher court.

No deal jeopardises our membership.

The WA embeds and binds us to the ECHR. Its a key red line for the EU to have a deal with us.

But May hates the ECHR and would love to leave. No Deal does present that opportunity to. Despite signing up in principle to the ECHR May has suggested very recently that we could drop and rewrite the Human Rights Act. But the GRA is the ECHR embedded into Brexit law.

How can you change the HRA and still be in the ECHR? I don't know.

Don't assume that post Brexit we will retain ECHR membership if we no deal for this reason.

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SusanWalker · 25/01/2019 01:32

Yes the ECHR is limited, but I was just pointing out that leaving the EU does not necessarily leave our supreme court as the highest court.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:35

BCF that was my fear over Cooper Boles. Not convinced it's definitely got the numbers. Especially if the Labour front bench don't officially back it and whip on it. Plus you have all these really unreliable independents and slack off Labour MPs atm. Amber Rudd is clearly considering her position over it. I do expect resignations before Tuesday because it's so tight.

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nicoala1 · 25/01/2019 01:36

Her Maj is being very well advised by others with a brain or two I reckon.

She may be just a mouthpiece really.

Will anyone take her wealth and that of her family away from her ever? NO. So they will never have to suffer the consequences of a NO DEAL so? Correct.

I am a sceptic for sure now. Those who are not affected will hope for the best, but those who ARE will have no voice again.

Sad times. But hopefully there will be NO BREXIT.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:38

Oh and btw, the AfD yesterday put up some posters outside my neighbour's hotel
(which he promptly took down & binned)

They were using as their slogans "Leave our diesels alone", complaining about "politically motivated laws" against their beloved diesels !

Germans do love their cars and to drive very fast, but there are only a few autobahn stretches now without a speed limit

So some of the AfD also want to abolish those namby-pamby speed limits, which take away the right to kill yourself - and others

Populist politicians and policies very often are seriously bad and / or stupid.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:40

Yep, red I hope those Cooper figures are right, but they looked rather optimistic to me

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:40

I actually think the Queen is remarkably sharp and bright in her own right. She has seen how many PM's deal with crisis? I suspect she is well advised but I do think she's got enough experience to have a damn good idea for herself.

I'm not a particular royalist. I just have a healthy respect for Queenie.

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:43

iirc, the GFA also embeds the ECHR and the human rights it gives, to reassure the Nationalist minority
Another reason why many are so worried about the GFA

nicoala1 · 25/01/2019 01:44

Yes RED I also have respect for her,

But what are her powers other than veiled pronouncements here and there really in the Brexit debacle?

Nothing.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:46

yes, HM QE2 is one of the few people actually doing the job she is supposed to.
However, she has very few powers left

We need our elected politicians to take responsibility
Not businesses, who have no duty to stop a govt from being idiots
Not a 90-year-old queen either

nicoala1 · 25/01/2019 01:51

Why not businesses?

The effect Brexit will have on them is surely immense.

Cannot understand why they have been so quiet up to now. But someone will advise me soon about that I am sure.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:51

She has the power of trust. And respect.
Those have value at a time when then is a lack of that about.

No not every one likes the monarchy but she still commands a lot of popular support which is broad in nature and reaches places that politicians can't and don't.

She's leading as best she can in a power vacuum. Don't knock it!

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:52

Her only really important remaining duty and power is to stop a military coup
or a quieter coup where one party prolongs its stay in office after its term or majority has ended
or just decides to shut down Parliament for a while.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 01:53

Nicola it's nearly 2am so forgive me for not answering tonight but I will try in the morning.

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SusanWalker · 25/01/2019 01:54

Just found this on Rory Brenner's Twitter feed.

(link: youtu.be/f6a_weyzkY4

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 01:57

Nicola Most are bound by NDAs
There could be very severe financial or other penalties for breaking those; otherwise the govt probably wouldn't use them.

Most would be hit commercially if they get involved in such a highly emotional topic.
Maybe Airbus is almost immune - people don't buy planes ! - but still travel in them
and Airbus won't want to feel isolated
They are probably even worried now about being nationalised, or stopped from moving their billion in plant out of the country

JustAnotherPoster00 · 25/01/2019 02:05

PMK Thanks Red

Is it all Corbyns fault yet? Grin

Apileofballyhoo · 25/01/2019 02:39

I said to DH last night that the queen would be lawyering up or whatever it is you do when you you're the queen and your government are behaving like crazies and a backbencher is suggesting getting you to shut down parliament. She didn't disappoint me. She takes her duty very seriously.

I wonder what happens JRM's money if the UK doesn't leave on 29th March? Or anyone else's? What are these new tax laws that are due to come in, and when do they come in?

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